1. Sensitivity Study of a Coupled Carbon Dioxide Meteorological Modeling System with Case Studies András Zénó Gyöngyösi, Tamás Weidinger, László Haszpra, Zsuzsanna Iványi and Hiroaki Kondo The NIRE CO2 @ ETA model

2. Overview  Short model description i. NIRE ii. ETA  Implementation i. NIRE ii. ETA  Coupling of NIRE to ETA  Sensitivity studies  Case studies  Conclusion, future works

3. Model Description ➲ NIRE ● Mesoscale circulation model (simple dynamics) ● Dispersion model ➲ Boussinesq-approximation ➲ Anelastic equations ➲ Terrain following s-coordinate (vrbl. res.) ➲ Staggered (Arakawa) grid ➲ First order turbulent closure (K ~ Richardson #) ● Vertical diff – implicit solver ● Horizontal diff – just for numerical stability ➲ Srfc: Monin-Obuhov; Energy Balance Eq. ➲ Soil: Thermal conductivity eq.

4. Surface parameterization H2O: passive scalar, saturation @ srfc ➲ No clouds, relevant in sfc heat balance CO2: ➲ Vegetation (Photosynth.+Res.) for each veg. mosaic => synthesized flux ➲ Anthropogen: ● area sources @ srfc (heating and traffic) ● large stacks – plume rise (CONCAWE)

5. Boundary conditioning; Numerical integration ➲ Lateral bndry ● Flow relaxation zone ➲ Top bndry ● Sponge layer ➲ Initialization ● Dynamical init. – spin-up ➲ Time integration: Leap frog – Forward each 20 th step to adjust numerical mode

6. Implementation ➲ Surface files ● IGBP landcover landuse database (USGS) ➲ Sensitivity test ● Dynamics ● Superadiabatic stratification ● Strong wind ➲ Basin ● Carpathian Basin @ bndry: nonlinear interaction topography -- bndry

7. Model bndry interacts w/ topography – strong nonlinear effects More effective bndry conditions are necessary

8. Sensitivity Study Mixing layer depth (Convective PBL) @ different cloud amounts Time evolution of CO 2 in the model domain

9. The “Meteorological driver” ➲ NCEP/ETA model (EMS NWS/NOAA): ● Limited area NWP model ● Primitive hydrostatic eqs – non-hydrost. Option ● Modified terrain following coordinate system ● Eta (modified sigma) ● approx horiz. srfs separatio nof lee flow ● sfc & PBL param. sophisticated

10. Adaptation “Operational” run for Central Europe ”Operational” run for Central Europe Adaptation of ETA + Budapest Init & bndry conds downloaded from NCEP every morning

11. Dynamical Test (non-hydrostatic option) ➲ Hydrostatic equations, non-hydrostatic effects parameterized ● Small-scale effect are more non-hydrost. ● Small impact on solutions ● In the standard run non-hydrost. Option not implemented ● DF init. not used

12. H 500 P sfc The Mass field Pressure falling (approaching system) NH departure ∆h~-.4—1.4 h~5530—5620 9m

13. The Wind field NH wind stronger more KE generation NH departures associated with topography

14. Coupling NIRE to ETA Super-adiabatic lapse rate  instab Extreme wind speed  instab @ lat & top bndry Flow relax term  changed to sine shape Top sponge layer enlarged Adiabat. adjustment:

15. A Case study Cold inversion in the Basin 02 February 2006 “Inversion case” Convective boundary layer after the decay of the inversion 06 February 2006 “Convection case”

27. Effect of a single large stack ● Plume rise (CONCAWE – Briggs, 1968) ● 200 m high ● 280 m 3 /s @ 300 0 C ● 1000 t/day CO 2 emission ● Located in the middle of the domain

28. Time evolution of temperature InversionConvection

29. Temperature Profiles @ different time of the day Inversion Convection

30. Time evolution of CO 2 Inversion Convection

31. CO 2 Profiles @ different time of the day InversionConvection

32. 12 LST

33. 15 LST

34. 18 LST

35. 22 LST

36. Conclusion ➲ NIRE is able to provide realistic meteorological conditions in suitable initial and boundary conditions taken from ETA ➲ The modular structure of it makes them suitable for PBL tests ➲ The coupled system is able to calculate concentration for different extreme meteorological conditions

37. Future works ➲ Introduction of newer parameterization schemes into the CO 2 model – further sensitivity and case studies ➲ Daily coupled system runs for the estimation of annual variation of surface fluxes ➲ Estimation of annual Carbon budget of the Carpatian Basin