1. Tropical Cyclones and Climate Kerry Emanuel Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2. Issues Effect of climate change on tropical cyclone activityEffect of climate change on tropical cyclone activity Role of tropical cyclones in the climate systemRole of tropical cyclones in the climate system

3. Approaches The historical recordThe historical record PhysicsPhysics PaleotempestologyPaleotempestology ModelsModels

4. Effect of Climate Change on Hurricanes

5. Global TC Frequency, 1970-2006 Data Sources: NOAA/TPC and NAVY/JTWC

6. Better Intensity Metric: The Power Dissipation Index A measure of the total frictional dissipation of kinetic energy in the hurricane boundary layer over the lifetime of the storm

7. Power Dissipation Based on 3 Data Sets for the Western North Pacific Power Dissipation Based on 3 Data Sets for the Western North Pacific (smoothed with a 1-3-4-3-1 filter) aircraft recon Data Sources: NAVY/JTWC, Japan Meteorological Agency, UKMO/HADSST1, Jim Kossin, U. Wisconsin Years included: 1949-2004

8. Atlantic Storm Maximum Power Dissipation (Smoothed with a 1-3-4-3-1 filter) Power Dissipation Index (PDI) Years included: 1870-2006 Data Source: NOAA/TPC

9. Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Storm Max Power Dissipation (Smoothed with a 1-3-4-3-1 filter) Scaled Temperature Power Dissipation Index (PDI) Years included: 1870-2006 Data Sources: NOAA/TPC, UKMO/HADSST1

11. Tropical Atlantic SST(blue), Global Mean Surface Temperature (red), Aerosol Forcing (aqua) Mann, M. E., and K. A. Emanuel, 2006. Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. EOS, 87, 233-244. Global mean surface temperature Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature Sulfate aerosol radiative forcing

12. Best Fit Linear Combination of Global Warming and Aerosol Forcing (red) versus Tropical Atlantic SST (blue) Mann, M. E., and K. A. Emanuel, 2006. Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. EOS, 87, 233-244. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature Global Surface T + Aerosol Forcing

13. Physics

14. Energy Production

15. Theoretical Upper Bound on Hurricane Maximum Wind Speed: Air-sea enthalpy disequilibrium Surface temperature Outflow temperature Ratio of exchange coefficients of enthalpy and momentum

16. Observed Tropical Atlantic Potential Intensity Data Sources: NCAR/NCEP re-analysis with pre-1979 bias correction, UKMO/HADSST1 Emanuel, K., J. Climate, 2007

17. Paleotempestology

18. barrier beach backbarrier marsh lagoon barrier beach backbarrier marsh lagoon a) b) Source: Jeff Donnelly, WHOI upland flood tidal delta terminal lobes overwash fan Paleotempestology

19. Donnelly and Woodruff (2006)

20. Photograph of stalagmite ATM7 showing depth of radiometric dating samples, micromilling track across approximately annually laminated couplets, and age- depth curve. Frappier et al., Geology, 2007

22. Projecting into the Future: Downscaling from Global Climate Models

23. Today’s global climate models are far too coarse to simulate tropical cyclones

24. Our Approach Step 1: Seed each ocean basin with a very large number of weak, randomly located cyclones Step 2: Cyclones are assumed to move with the large scale atmospheric flow in which they are embedded Step 3: Run a coupled, ocean-atmosphere computer model for each cyclone, and note how many achieve at least tropical storm strength Step 4: Using the small fraction of surviving events, determine storm statistics.

25. Track: Empirically determined constants:

26. Example: 200 Synthetic Tracks

27. Present Climate: Spatial Distribution of Genesis Points Observed Synthetic

28. Calibration Absolute genesis frequency calibrated to North Atlantic during the period 1980-2005Absolute genesis frequency calibrated to North Atlantic during the period 1980-2005

29. Genesis rates

30. Seasonal Cycles Atlantic

31. Cumulative Distribution of Storm Lifetime Peak Wind Speed, with Sample of 2946 Synthetic Tracks

32. Captures effects of regional climate phenomena (e.g. ENSO, AMM)

33. Year by Year Comparison with Best Track and with Knutson et al., 2007

34. Simulated vs. Observed Power Dissipation Trends, 1980-2006

35. Now Use Daily Output from IPCC Models to Derive Wind Statistics, Thermodynamic State Needed by Synthetic Track Technique

36. Last 20 years of 20 th century simulations 2. Years 2180-2200 of IPCC Scenario A1b (CO 2 stabilized at 720 ppm) 1. Last 20 years of 20 th century simulations 2. Years 2180-2200 of IPCC Scenario A1b (CO 2 stabilized at 720 ppm) Compare two simulations each from 7 IPCC models:

37. Genesis Distributions

38. Basin-Wide Percentage Change in Power Dissipation

39. Basin-Wide Percentage Change in Storm Frequency

40. 7 Model Consensus Change in Storm Frequency

41. Synthetic Events driven by GFDL AM2.1, Observed SSTs

42. Feedback of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity on the Climate System

43. Strong Mixing of Upper Ocean

44. Direct mixing by tropical cyclones Source: Rob Korty, CalTech Emanuel (2001) estimated global rate of heat input as 1.4 X 10 15 Watts

45. TC Mixing May Induce Much or Most of the Observed Poleward Heat Flux by the Oceans Trenberth and Caron, 2001

46. TC-Mixing may be Crucial for High-Latitude Warmth and Low-Latitude Moderation During Warm Climates, such as that of the Eocene

47.  SST: elevated mixing to 360 meters – uniform 10 x CO 2 in both experiments Source: Rob Korty, CalTech Interactive TC-Mixing Moderates Tropical Warming and Amplifies High-Latitude Warming in Coupled Climate Models

48. “Slippery Sacks” Ocean Model, Patrick Haertel

49. Summary: Tropical cyclones are sensitive to the climate state, as revealed by historical data and paleotempestologyTropical cyclones are sensitive to the climate state, as revealed by historical data and paleotempestology Observations together with detailed modeling suggest that TC power dissipation increases by ~65% for a 10% increase in potential intensityObservations together with detailed modeling suggest that TC power dissipation increases by ~65% for a 10% increase in potential intensity

50. New technique for downscaling climate models shows promise for predicting response of global tropical cyclone activity to climate changeNew technique for downscaling climate models shows promise for predicting response of global tropical cyclone activity to climate change Climate models may have systematic errors that compromise estimates of tropical cyclone response to global warmingClimate models may have systematic errors that compromise estimates of tropical cyclone response to global warming

51. Storm-induced mixing of the upper tropical ocean may be the principal driver of the ocean’s thermohaline circulationStorm-induced mixing of the upper tropical ocean may be the principal driver of the ocean’s thermohaline circulation Increased TC power dissipation in a warming climate will drive a larger poleward heat flux by the oceans, tempering tropical warming but amplifying the warming of middle and high latitudesIncreased TC power dissipation in a warming climate will drive a larger poleward heat flux by the oceans, tempering tropical warming but amplifying the warming of middle and high latitudes