1. www.csiro.au Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Implications for Agriculture in the Asia-Pacific Region Andrew Ash Interim Director CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship

2. Climate change is occurring and is due to human activities * * From: IPCC, 2007: Summary for Poicymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

3. We are currently tracking at the very high end of emission scenarios and temperature projections Rahmstorf et al.

4. Climate change is projected to continue 15-model average changes in temperature by 2030, relative to 1990 Suppiah et al (in prep) Low CO 2 emission scenario Temperature change (°C) High CO 2 emission scenario

5. Projections of Future Changes in Climate Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions

6. Summary of Projected Climate Changes Temperature to increase 3 o C by 2050 and 5 o C by 2070 over land areas Lower increases in temperature in maritime environments Precipitation increases in high latitudes (temperate) but a drying in mid- latitudes (sub-tropics) over Asia Equatorial tropical zone – uncertain but little mean change expected No increase in cyclone frequency but intensity could increase by 10-20% Accelerated melting of glaciers – 65% of China’s glaciers will not exist by 2050 with current and projected warming trends Sea level rise modest in IPCC projections (c. 50cm) but estimates don’t include significant ice melt

7. Table ‎2.3. Reported Natural Disasters in the Pacific Islands (1950- 2004) EventNumberFatalitiesPopulation Affected Losses (millions 2004 US$) Windstorms1571,3802,496,8085,903.90 Droughts100629,580137.00 Floods840246,64494.80 Earthquakes175322,254330.60 Others1527421,520+60.00 Vulnerability to extreme events

8. Vulnerability to sea level rise

9. Sectoral vulnerability

10. Impacts on agriculture Four main climate related drivers on agriculture: Elevated carbon dioxide Rainfall and associated water resource availability Temperature – both direct and indirect through evaporation Extreme weather events (wind, flood damage) These interact to affect agricultural productivity, quality, pests and diseases.

11. Benefits of elevated CO 2 lost as temperatures increase Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to high latitudes for local warmings of 1-3 o C, then decrease for greater warming Crop productivity is projected to decrease for local warmings of 1-2 o C at lower latitudes, e.g. tropics, which would increase risk of hunger. Decreases in revenue up to 25% Monsoon more variable and increased damage from cyclones Agricultural irrigation demand in sub-tropical semi-arid zones (lower precipitation, higher evaporation) likely to be 10% per degree of warming Northward shift of agricultural zones in Asia (single, double, tri-planting) Commercial timber productivity is projected to rise modestly Likely impacts on fisheries but outcomes are uncertain Impacts on agriculture and food security

12. Adapting to Climate Change Adaptation involves both the actions of adjusting practices, processes and capital in response to the actuality or threat of climate change as well as changes in the decision environment such as social and institutional structures. Adaptation helps to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences of climate change. Mitigation of climate change refers to those response strategies that reduce the sources of greenhouse gases or enhance their sinks, to subsequently reduce the probability of reaching a given level of climate change

13. Adapting to climate change

14. Tropical Asia Adjust cropping calendar and crop rotation to deal with climatic variability and extremes Develop and promote use of high-yielding varieties and sustainable technological applications Semi-arid and arid Asia Change in agriculture system (introduction of humidity-preserving technologies, application of advanced agro-technical measures, and the introduction of new frost resistant, low water use and drought-resistant high-yielding varieties) Reconstruction of existing irrigation system (introduction of sprinkling and drip irrigation) Adaptation in agriculture

15. Conclusion – Winners and Losers  Between agricultural industries  Between regions  Impacts are on economic, environmental and social components of the system  Degree of impact will depend on adaptation