1. Value-Focused Thinking
Dr. Greg Parnell
Virginia Commonwealth University

2. Overview Structure of Decisions Value-Focused Thinking Definition
Benefits
Obstacles
Requirements
Summary

3. Structure of Decisions
Values
What do we want?
Information
What do we know?
Alternatives
What can we do?
Key Idea: Use our strategic values to create decision opportunities

4. Alternative Focused Thinking
Evaluate
Initial
Alternatives

5. Change Thinking Alternative-Focused Thinking Value-Focused Thinking
Values
New & Initial
Alternatives
Evaluate
Initial
Alternatives
If you want better decisions,
find better alternatives!
Evaluate
(Values)

6. Benefits of Value Focused Thinking
creating
alternatives
identifying
decision
opportunities
uncovering
hidden
objectives
evaluating
alternatives
guiding
strategic
thinking
Thinking
About
Values
improving
communication
inter-
connecting
decisions
facilitating
involvement
guiding
information
collection
Keeney, Ralph L., Value Focused Thinking: A Path To Creative Decisionmaking,
Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1992, pp

7. VFT: Guiding Strategic Thinking
Objective
Objective 1
Objective 2
Objective 3
Strategic objectives should guide our decision-making
Strategic objectives are stable over time
Means to obtain these objectives vary over time

8. SPACECAST 2020 Value Model Missions from JCS PUB 3-14

9. Greg Parnell's Professional Values
Be an internationally recognized decision analyst & Professor of Mathematical Sciences (Operations Research)
Publish important research & be in demand as consultant
Be an excellent teacher & mentor
Perform significant professional service

10. VFT: Facilitates Involvement in Multiple-Stakeholder Decisions
Objective 1
Objective 2
Objective 3
Strategic
Objective
Rewrote last bullet.
Focuses stakeholder interaction on values
Discussions more productive
Key issues become explicit
Postpones discussion of alternatives

11. VFT: Uncovering Hidden Objectives
Strategic
Objective
Objective 1
Objective 2
Objective 3
Objective 4
Some objectives require considerable thought to uncover
Some stakeholders have incentives not to identify objectives

12. VFT: Improving Communications
Facilitates communications and understanding between all stakeholders
Avoids technical language of many specialties

13. VFT: Decision Opportunities
Assess how we will attain future strategic objectives
Objectives not being attained
Objectives that are or will be degrading
Focus our creativity to identify opportunities to create value

14. Greg Parnell's Professional Values
Be a internationally recognized decision analyst
& Professor of Mathematical Sciences
(Operations Research)
Be an excellent teacher
Publish important research
Perform significant
& mentor
& be in demand as consultant
professional service
Develop world class
Maintain & build friendships
Work on challenging
University
decision & risk analysis
courses
Community
problems
Nationally/Internationally
Perform university Service
Develop outstanding
Build strong research
Math Sciences Dept
H & S School
operations research courses
program
VCU
Did you want to leave “Teach …..students” in white to emphasize or talk about it? Yes.
This is why I decided to teach an honors course in DA. I had no courses planned to focus on undergraduates. Honors students are the best students.
Teach undergraduate
Develop research
agenda & thesis
research topics
Support INFORMS/MORS
courses that attract
Professional Objectives
operations research students
Local/National
Attract excellent
Enhance Math Sciences (OR)
Provide sound academic
undergraduate &
& professional advice
MS thesis students
graduate programs
Be a member
of PhD committees
Increase program
awareness - Locally
Nationally/Internationally
Obtain funding for
summer & students
Build network to help
graduates get jobs
Get research & consulting
work published

15. VFT: Evaluating Alternatives
Objective 1
Measure of Merit A
Subobjective A
Measure of Merit B
Subobjective B
Measure of Merit C
Subobjective C
Objective 2
Objective 3
Strategic
Objective
50%
30%
20%
40%
Changed tasks to subobjectives.
Develop value model to evaluate alternatives
Identify subobjectives required to achieve objectives
Identify measures of merit that quantify the value of achieving subobjectives
Assign weight to the subobjectives and objectives

16. SPACECAST 2020 Value Model Weighted Score = Improvement Score X Force Quality Weight X Task Weight X Mission Weight
OBJECTIVE
0.19
0.37
0.22
0.22
MISSION
Deleted “Line” in “Line Score”.
TASK
0.20
0.25
0.22
0.07
0.08
0.18
FORCE
QUALITY
0.35
0.35
0.20
0.10
MEASURE
OF MERIT
CURRENT
CAPABILITY
(0.0)
IMPROVEMENT:
MINOR
(0.1)
SIGNIFICANT
(0.5)
ORDER OF
MAGNITUDE
(0.9)

17. VFT: Guiding Information Collection
Objective 1
Measure of Merit A
Subobjective A
Measure of Merit B
Subobjective B
Measure of Merit C
Subobjective C
Objective 2
Objective 3
Strategic
Objective
50%
30%
20%
40%
Changed tasks to subobjectives
Value model indicates the important information
Collect information to
Create better alternatives
Credibly evaluate alternatives

18. VFT: Creating Alternatives
Strategic
Objective
20%
30%
50%
I guess you want the third objective empty to talk about focusing creativity to find some alt’s that are good at Objective 3? The other alternatives are lined up under the objectives they score or do well in?
Exactly! Many times the beginning alternative set does NOT have any alternatives to focus on the most important objectives! That is because the alternatives are developed before the objectives!
Objective 1
Objective 2
Objective 3
Alternative A
Alternative B
Alternative B
Alternative C
Advocates will propose several alternatives
Focus creativity to generate alternatives that create value

19. VFT: Interconnecting Decisions
Strategic
Objective
20%
30%
50%
Objective 1
Objective 2
Objective 3
30%
40%
30%
Task A
Task B
Task C
Measure of Merit A
Measure of Merit B
Measure of Merit C
Value model assessments of alternatives
Objective
Traceable
Robust

20. SPACECAST 2020 Operational Analysis Summary
(Sensitivity to Weights) 5
TAV
High
Energy
Laser
(HEL) 4 3
Global
Surveillance, Recon,
& Targeting
System
(GSRT)
High Power
Microwave
Orbital
Transfer
Vehicle
(OTV)
Kinetic
Energy
Weapons
(KEW) 2
Particle
Beam
Super
GPS
Weather
Forecasting
System
Space
Traffic
Control
(SPATRACS)
Orbital
Maneuvering
Vehicle
Space
Modular
Systems
Asteroid
Detection
Weather
Control 1
Space
Solar
Monitoring
Ionospheric
Forecasting
Solar
Mirror
TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGE

21. Obstacles to Value-Focused Thinking
Added lamppost?
Alternative Focused Thinking
“Drunk looking for car keys under the lamp post”
Worrying too much about the “weights”
Lack of an environment that encourages creativity

22. Requirements for Value-Focused Thinking
Study leadership support
Support from study team
Experienced analysis team

23. Summary Value-Focused Thinking helps us use
Value Model Has a Central Role
Strategic
Objective
Objective 1
Objective 2
Objective 3
Subobjective A
Subobjective B
Subobjective C
Measure of Merit C
Measure of Merit A
Measure of Merit B
Value-Focused Thinking helps us use
our strategic objectives to create value