1. U.S. Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School The U.S. Army’s Special Operations Center of Excellence The overall classification of this brief is: UNCLASSFIED Briefer: Type of Brief: Date: Version: NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Regional Team 3 (ME) Information Brief 24 June 2014 V01 - ZLD The Lebanese Government and Hezbollah

2. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Purpose: An information brief to the LTC(ret) Al Greishaber and Mr. Tirdad Daei to address the instability of Lebanon and our suggested solution. Agenda –Historical Background –Problem Statement –Operational Variable Analysis (PMESII-PT) –Systematic Effects –Summary –Questions and Comments Purpose and Agenda

3. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF “Road to crisis” The Lebanese Problem Begins With Its Civil War –In 1975, conflict started over sectarian imbalance because of Palestinian immigration. –The Lebanese government’s inability to find resolution through their balanced government approach allowed for a proxy war to exist for 16 years –In 1989 The Taif Agreement is signed. conflict finally ceases in 1991. –The Lebanese reinstates its previous government system based on balanced religious representation. In 2006, Hezbollah started to gain favor within the country –The expulsion of Israel in this same year gave Hezbollah the most popular favor, in view of the incompetent Lebanese army. –In 2011 Syria began their civil war. As Syrian refugees flooded into Lebanon, Hezbollah began employing people and providing solutions, where the Lebanese government attempted to segregate them from the Lebanese citizens. Historical Background

4. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF A lack of security, accountability, and leadership within the Lebanese Government has opened the door for the known terrorist organization, Hezbollah, to intervene and fill gaps where the government is lacking. Hezbollah’s ability to provide for the people of Lebanon is a ticking time bomb for the Lebanese Government. As Hezbollah gains popular support and legitimacy, the Lebanese Government’s legitimacy will decline to the point of ineffectiveness. This would destabilize the nation and result in a terrorist organization in power within Lebanon. By advocating for Hezbollah to discontinue their terrorist activities, The United States could move a respected political party into the Lebanese Government to stabilize the country while simultaneously eliminating extremist activities from Hezbollah. Problem Statement

5. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Syrian conflict –The conflict has strained Lebanese resources –The Lebanese government is torn over involvement – Border Conflicts Refugee Issue – The influx of refugees has contributed to limited resources within Lebanon – The population growth has made jobs scarce leading to high unemployment – Increased population has stressed the political balance as it pertains to demography Political Construct in Lebanon

6. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Hezbollah’s political presence – They are a terror organization which holds political offices – Legitimacy amongst the populace is very high – Hezbollah’s influence in the Syrian conflict has created discontent among a percentage of the populous Lebanese political system – Adequate representation is not balanced within the Lebanese government – There is currently no president in charge of Lebanon Political (Cont.)

7. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF During 2006 conflict with Israel, Lebanese Armed Force( LAF) ran away from the confrontation with Israeli forces. –Hezbollah was forced to take LAF’s place and fight for Lebanon –LAF lost support and confidence from local populous –Hezbollah was seen as hero’s who were “Fighting for the people” Hezbollah gained local support from Shia community for their involvement in the Syrian crisis. –Hezbollah is gaining support among Shiites and building the capacity of its forces through the conflict –Hezbollah has more funding for security efforts than LAF. –Hezbollah is seen as more of a security force for the nation and the people than LAF National Security Situation in Lebanon

8. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Hezbollah’s role in government influences economic decisions that impact the economy –Hezbollah currently has 13 seats in parliament –Hezbollah has members in minister positions (energy, finance, and foreign affairs) –Hezbollah’s leader has lobbied for the government to pursue the exploration of oil and gas off the country’s coast Hezbollah’s role in social/civil service programs influences economic prosperity of the populace –They provide water services to areas in need –They provide vocational and specialty training to people –They have build hospitals and other emergency facilities Economics in Lebanon

9. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Hezbollah is heavily supported and financed by Iran. –Iran supplies Hezbollah with apx. 100-200 million dollars annually –Hezbollah is funded by the illegal drug trade in South America –Hezbollah also receives money through fronts of various charity organizations –Used cars sales in the United States and west Africa also fund Hezbollah Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian conflict severely jeopardizes Lebanon's economic security –GCC can restrict visas from Lebanese citizens which accounts for 500k individuals sending money home. –Their involvement may cut remittances from Lebanese citizens abroad which accounts for 10% of the country’s GDP –The gulf countries also dominate foreign investment, tourism, and exports. They used to supply 60% of Lebanon’s foreign direct investment. Hezbollah’s involvement has made Lebanon unpopular to foreign investors. Economics (Cont.)

10. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Sectarianism exists in all aspects of Lebanese life, leading to a lack of trust towards others. –18 different religious communities live together in this relatively small country –There is very little intermingling between communities –Close bonds exist between Lebanese communities and groups, parties and governments of the same religious confession in neighboring countries –Segregation and isolation of the particular communities is further fostered by the country's consociational political and legal system. Decades of conflict have long created friction between Lebanon’s rich and poor. –Better-educated Christians and elite Sunni Muslims tend to dominate the upper and middle classes. –One-third of the population is considered poor; most of these are Shia Muslims, who resent the disparity in income, living conditions, and political power, and are increasingly determined to gain greater power. –During the times of conflict the commanders and power brokers have historically profited at the expense of the populace. Social Factors in Lebanon

11. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF A shifting societal balance has occurred due to conflict –Influx of Palestinian refuges in the 1970s and Syrian refugees in the last 2 years. –Currently 20% of the population of Lebanon are refugees. –The stateless Palestinian and Syrian refugees are resentful; displaced from their homes by conflict, they remain confined to unsanitary camps and many are frustrated by their lack of citizenship. Social Factors (Cont.)

12. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Reconstruction after the civil war has been a slow process that has not placed the country in a position better than before –Beirut and the Mount Lebanon region are the most advanced in Lebanon –The rural region of Bakaa is, technologically, ages behind the rest of the country –Even in Beirut, roads and train tracks are still unrepaired. Hezbollah has caused the only significant improvement in infrastructure since the Syrian Civil war –Hezbollah has employed many Lebanese and Syrian workers to accomplish projects in Lebanon –12 Ports in Lebanon have seen rehabilitation and modernization –Telecommunications has seen widespread service covering 700 thousand people Infrastructure in Lebanon

13. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Power outages are affecting economy –The Lebanese power grid is prone to shortages and blackouts –Businesses are affected by outages which cost the country millions –The Lebanese Electricite du Liban runs the nation’s electricity under government oversight. Hezbollah is advocating for the development of gas and oil extraction infrastructure along the coastline –This project would employ 80% Lebanese by law –This infrastructure would increase financial independence of Lebanon –This provides another example of infrastructure development in Lebanon that Hezbollah has attempted, against the limitations of the current government Infrastructure (Cont.)

14. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Lebanon is one of very few middle eastern countries with privatized television service –Lebanese Broadcasting Company –Future TV –Tele-Liban –Al-Manar Telephone service is seeing widespread use in Lebanon –Lebanese companies have apx. 700 thousand subscribers –Information is travelling very fast across the country –This, coupled with the growing use of internet, means that the Lebanese people are living in much faster times. Information Flow in Lebanon

15. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Legitimizing Hezbollah opens up the party to international assistance. This enables them to better help the Lebanese people. The Lebanese military would merge with the Hezbollah military arm which would increase national security. Hezbollah has demonstrated they are concerned with projects which bolster Lebanon. Through legitimate power, they would be able to boost those projects and fund more. Local support for Hezbollah means that there would be legitimacy within the government. This would increase the government’s overall power. Sectarian unity would occur under Hezbollah authority. Systematic Effects

16. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Facts which affect the situation/solutions –Hezbollah is under direct support of Iran financially/militarily –Hatred towards Israel. We assume Hezbollah is more concerned with legitimacy and power within Lebanon than they are conquest. –In speaking with Hassan Nasarallah, the true ambitions of Hezbollah could be determined. We do not know, if Iran ceases economic support for Hezbollah, that they will be able to provide for Lebanon like they have in the past Conclusion –Hezbollah drops terrorist in exchange for political legitimacy Summary

17. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Questions and Comments Questions

18. UNCLASSFIED Backup Slides NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF References References: -The Jerusalem Post, 16 December 2010, "Iran said to have cut hizbullah aid 40%", Author: Yaakov Katz -Breitbart- London, 10 April 2014, "Hezbollah facing financial crisis as Iran cuts aid", Author: Abe Katsman -Bloomberg News, 23 July 2013, "Gulf's crackdown on Hezbollah may endanger Lebanon's cash flow", Author: Donna Abu- Nasr -Gladstone Institute- International Policy Council, 3 March 2014, “Lebanaon's new government threatening Israel?", Author: Joseph Raskas -Jihad al- Binaa Development Association (Hezbollah affiliated website), 16 May 2014 -British Middle East Center for Studies and Research, 3 May 2014, "How Lebanon fund's terror: Illicit drugs and money laundering" -infrastructure http://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2013/06/03/supporting-lebanon-efforts-to-rebuild-infrastructure-and-alleviate-the- impacts-of-conflict-on-municipalitieshttp://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2013/06/03/supporting-lebanon-efforts-to-rebuild-infrastructure-and-alleviate-the- impacts-of-conflict-on-municipalities -Social http://www.economist.com/blogs/pomegranate/2014/02/lebanese-societyhttp://www.economist.com/blogs/pomegranate/2014/02/lebanese-society -Environment http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2012/Jun-06/175865-lebanon-faces-environment-problems-due-to- development.ashx#axzz35hfOL3bShttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2012/Jun-06/175865-lebanon-faces-environment-problems-due-to- development.ashx#axzz35hfOL3bS -Political http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2014/Jun-18/260563-aoun-presidential-void-can-prove- disastrous.ashx#axzz35hfOL3bShttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2014/Jun-18/260563-aoun-presidential-void-can-prove- disastrous.ashx#axzz35hfOL3bS -Economy http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2014/Jun-02/258583-world-bank-chief-in-lebanon-for-talks-on-ailing- economy.ashx#axzz35hfOL3bShttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2014/Jun-02/258583-world-bank-chief-in-lebanon-for-talks-on-ailing- economy.ashx#axzz35hfOL3bS -Military (I found this article very interesting from several standpoints, Lebanese, Hezbollah and Israel) http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/11/world/middleeast/israel-watches-warily-as-hezbollah-gains-battle-skills-in-syria.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/11/world/middleeast/israel-watches-warily-as-hezbollah-gains-battle-skills-in-syria.html?_r=0 -Information http://www.huffingtonpost.com/magda-abufadil/media-freedom-in-lebanon_b_5033483.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/magda-abufadil/media-freedom-in-lebanon_b_5033483.html - http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/world/middleeast/syrian-flood-into-lebanon-stirs-fear-of-looming-disaster.html?pagewanted=all - http://www.transparency.org/country#LBN_Chapter - http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2012/al-monitor/lebanon-hezbollah-syrian-refugee.html - http://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/le00000_.html - http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2013/08/lebanons-syrian-war.html - http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/08/health/gupta-child-refugees-syria-lebanon - http://www.start.umd.edu/tops/terrorist_organization_profile.asp?id=3101 - http://www.nctc.gov/site/groups/hizballah.html - http://www.zawya.com/story/Protectionism_can_save_industry_in_Lebanon_Hajj_Hasan-DS14062014_dsart*260048/- http://www.zawya.com/story/Protectionism_can_save_industry_in_Lebanon_Hajj_Hasan-DS14062014_dsart*260048/?

19. UNCLASSFIED Backup Slides NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF References - http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-14648683 - http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Business/Lebanon/2014/May-10/255929-gas-venture-needs-infrastructure- minister.ashx#axzz34oDzS16j - http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/suicide-attacker-hits-checkpoint-east-lebanon-24225994 - Sam van Vliet, Guita Hourani, "Regional differences in the conditions of Syrian refugees in Lebanon", Civil Society Knowledge Center, Lebanon Support, 2014-04-23 00:00:00. http://cskc.daleel-madani.org/paper/regional-differences-conditions-syrian-refugees- lebanonhttp://cskc.daleel-madani.org/paper/regional-differences-conditions-syrian-refugees- lebanon - http://theconversation.com/mutual-misery-the-syrian-refugee-crisis-lebanon-and-australia-19304