1. Workpackage 3 TIDE

2. 1.Introduction: Ecosystem services TIDE

3. 3 Nature Harbour Ecology Economy ?

4. Fig. from Dücker et al. 2006, HANSA: 76-84

5. 40 km Van Braeckel et al. 2006 Changing tidal characteristics

6. UNEP, 2002 www.unep.org, Bron: gegevens: Climate change 2001, Synthesis Reoprt, Conclusions of Working Groups I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernment al Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2001. WATERPROBLEMATIEK Global change Sea level rise

7. 7 Carrying capacity

8. 8

9. 9

10. 10

12. 12 2) Conceptual framework Nature Harbour Ecology Economy Ecosystem services

13. 13 2. Qualitative assessments TIDE

14. 14 Goals Goods and services problems Zone in the estuary

15. 15 Action points Define ecosystem services (task 3.1) Harmonise estuarine zonation < typology... Set up qualitative criteria for functioning efficiency (= quantification precursor) Assess ecosystem functioning (=filling in the table for each estuary) Compare estuaries and learn (task 3.4: gaps) Idem for species instead of functions (task 3.2)

16. 16 H1 CARRYING CAPCARRYING CAP H2 H3 surface quality surface quality habitats species G1 G2 Gn Goods & services S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 Defining goals

17. 17 Measures To Be Taken In Different Zones Goods and services Large scale restoration Morphological dredging

18. 18 Measures To Be Taken In Different Zones Goods and services

19. 19 Action points List measures for all estuaries (  WP5) Assess impact for every measure for each function or goal (species, habitat), for each zone (task 3.9) Assess also the impact that a measure of one estuary would have in the other estuaries and learn from it (-> task 3.10)

20. 20 3. The quantification job TIDE

21. 21 No quantification without known relations

22. Birds and their food Data Tom Ysebaert NIOO- CEMO

23. Benthos and its food System primary production (gC.m -2.y -1 ) 0100200300400500600700 System-averaged macrofauna biomass g AFDW m -2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 B=-1.5 + 0.105 P r 2 =0.77 GR OS VM WS B1 B2 ED EW CB SFB LIS LY COL YT BF Source: P. Herman NIOO-CEMO

24. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Primary production (gC m-2 y-1) -1000100200300400 Net organic import (gC m-2 y-1) zone of light limitation Phytoplankton and organic load Herman et al., CEMO

25. Billen & Garnier, Univ. de Paris pristine 2015

26. Area evolution

27. N, P, C ? Pristine Actual Carrying capacity for benthos AiAi AjAj BiBi BjBj

28. Diversity Dissolved oxygen B i x A i = (B j + B c ) x (A j + A c ) Mudflat area History PiPi PjPj O2O2 Immission History

29. Carrying capacity for: Carrying capacity for: Nutrient retention Nutrient retention Water storage Water storage Tidal energy reduction Tidal energy reduction........

30. Log 10 of mean spring tidal range Uncles et al., 2002 Van der Spek et al., 1997 Linking tidal range historywith the relation between tidal range, tidal lenght and SPM 1 meter less mean spring tidal range would give for an estuary of 160 km long an SPM concentration of about ten times less

31. Diversity Limiting factor B i x A i = (B j + B c ) x (A j + A c ) Mudflat area History PiPi PjPj Immission History Light limitation Morphology Oxygen Toxicity Element limitation Disturbance

32. Tidal marsh mudflats Shallow water Service : Primary Production Si regeneration Pelagic habitat River Zm/Zp Phyto plankton Organic Load/ Si

33. Measures To Be Taken In Different Zones Goods and services

34. No quantification without known relations No quantification without known relations Interestuarine comparisons give surplus relations (task 3.5) Interestuarine comparisons give surplus relations (task 3.5) Historic information and tools such as modelling (task 3.3) can turn relations into quantifications of needs and into function quantifications Historic information and tools such as modelling (task 3.3) can turn relations into quantifications of needs and into function quantifications Matching the effectiveness of measures with quantified needs is the ultimate goal for estuarine management Matching the effectiveness of measures with quantified needs is the ultimate goal for estuarine management

35. 35 VMM OMES CEME GHA RWS.... legislation maintenance safety,.... INVENTORYCONSULTING AND STAKEHOLDERS INDIVIDUAL EXPERTS WORKING DOCUMENT THEMATIC EXPERT GROUPS HYDR.MORF.HABIT.F.CHEM.ECOL.DIV. DRAFT PLAN EXPERTS AND STAKEHOLDERS FINAL PLAN