1. 2009 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast 21 May 2009 Kevin Reyes Director, Business Development Boeing Launch Services kevin.reyes@boeing.com Cover art by John Sloan/FAA 2009 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts FAA Commercial Space Transportation (AST) and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) May 2009 Federal Aviation Administration

2. 2009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/21/2009 2 GSO FORECAST AGENDA Forecast Summary Working Group Market Description Methodology Forecast Sensitivities Demand Forecast Launch Forecast 2008-2009 Totals Comparison Operator Assessments Trends Summary

3. 2009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/21/2009 3 2009 GSO Demand Summary 2009-2018 commercial GSO satellite and launch demand forecast decreased by 1 from 2008 Average 20.8 Average 15.7

4. 2009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/21/2009 4 Working Group Members Gwynne ShotwellSpaceX (2008 & 2009 GSO Forecast Chair) Kevin ReyesBoeing (2009 GSO Forecast Deputy Chair) John SloanFAA AST Lisa HagueAerospace Corp. Jozsef LoreBoeing Veronica JohnsonUnited Launch Alliance Alan KeisnerSpaceX David KeslowOrbital Chris KunstadterXL Insurance Tom MonroeSS/L Jennifer MicelliTecolote Research / USAF / SMC / MV Peter StierSea Launch Jeanne BeesleyBoeing Beth KingLockheed Martin Deborah Facktor LeporeAir Launch

5. 2009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/21/2009 5 GSO Methodology Information requested of ~ 90 launch providers, satellite manufacturers & operators  21 companies responded in 2009 (29 in 2008) Individual & comprehensive responses Int’l competitive procurements only Sort satellites by mass categories  Small - < 2,500 kg  Medium - 2,500 to 4,200 kg  Large - 4,200 to 5,400 kg  Extra Large - > 5,400 kg Assign satellite demand to launchers

6. 2009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/21/2009 6 GSO Methodology Cont. Questionnaire on factors affecting their satellite procurement plans  13 satellite operators responded in 2009 (17 in 2008) 6 operators responded in both 2008 & 2009 7 new responders in 2009 Near term manifest (2009-2011) Long term forecast (2012-2018)

7. 2009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/21/2009 7 GSO Forecast Sensitivities Realization factor developed for sensitivities  Maximum and Minimum Variations of actual launches vs. forecasted demand  Calculated over 5-year rolling period Several factors identified that impact launch forecast  Satellite-Related issues  Launch Vehicle-Related issues  Schedule-Related issues Dual-Manifesting  Weather  Plan performance  Funding  Regulatory

8. 2009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/21/2009 8 GSO Satellite Demand Forecast

9. 2009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/21/2009 9 GSO Satellite Demand Forecast Mass Category

10. 2009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/21/2009 10 GSO Launch Forecast

11. 2009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/21/2009 11 2008-2009 GSO Forecast Total Comparison Parameter 2008 Forecast (2008-2017) 2009 Forecast (2009-2018) # S Satellites2517 # M Satellites6474 # L Satellites7257 # XL Satellites5760 Total # Satellites218208 Total # Launches162157

12. 2009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/21/2009 12 Satellite Operator Assessment Significant Negative Impact Some Negative Impact No Effect Some Positive Impact Significant Positive Impact Compared to 2008 Regional or global economic conditions 0%77%23%0%  Demand for satellite services 8%23% 38%8%  Ability to compete with terrestrial services 15% 69%0%  Availability of financing 23%46%8%23%0%  Availability of affordable insurance 0%23%46%31%0%  Consolidation of service providers 0%15%77%8%0%  Increasing satellite life times 0%38%54%8%0%  Availability of satellite systems that meet your requirements 0%8%54%31%8%  Reliability of satellite systems 0%38% 15%8%  Availability of launch vehicles that meet your requirements 8%15%46%23%8%  Reliability of launch systems 0%31%46%23%0%  Ability to obtain required export licenses 0%15%69%8%  Ability to obtain required operating licenses 8%15%69%8%0% 

13. 2009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/21/2009 13 GSO Trends Long-Term Satellite Forecast  Relatively stable in the near term Satellites – flat to slight decrease Launch demand – slight decrease Satellite mass – slight increase Transponders per satellite – slight increase  Relatively consistent average in the long term Launch demand – flat (~15 launches/yr) Satellites – flat (~20 satellites/yr)

14. 2009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/21/2009 14 GSO Forecast Summary 2009 satellite demand of 27 planned for 21 launches  Combination of single and dual manifest 2010 satellite demand of 21 planned for 16 launches  Combination of single and dual manifest Projected average annual demand (2009-2018)  20.8 satellites  15.7 launches Other factors identified may affect launchers  New launch vehicle entrants  Dual manifest launches Operator assessments negative compared to 2008  Some responder changes from 2008 survey  Uncertain economic conditions  Reliability of launchers/satellites  Hosted payloads  ITAR free satellites