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FEBRUARY 2015. Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers Consumer Optimism Hits 11-Year High.

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Presentation on theme: "FEBRUARY 2015. Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers Consumer Optimism Hits 11-Year High."— Presentation transcript:

1 FEBRUARY 2015

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4 Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers Consumer Optimism Hits 11-Year High

5 December 2013 HOUSEHOLD FORMATIONS

6 NAR Savings on Reduced FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums Based on a mortgage of $200,000

7 “NAR Research estimates that the fee reduction will price in an additional 1.6 million to 2.1 million renters along with many trade-up buyers, resulting in 90,000 to 140,000 additional annual home purchases based on the standard affordability limits at the FHA and conventional market and dynamics in the housing finance market.”

8 Mortgage Credit Availability

9 Renters Planning on Buying a Home Freddie Mac in the next 3 years by age group

10 Renters’ Views on Homeownership Freddie Mac 86% Homeownership provides protection against rent increases 80% Homeownership is an investment opportunity that builds long-term wealth 77% Homeownership provides stability and/or financial security financial aspects

11 It is something to be proud of91% It can be passed on to your children90% It allows more flexibility to design it the way you want89% It gives you more privacy86% It gives you more independence and control81% It provides a better home life for children76% It is a sign of success76% It makes you feel more like part of a community74% It allows you to live in a better, safer neighborhood60% Freddie Mac Renters’ Views on Homeownership non-financial aspects

12 #1 Reasons Renters Won’t Buy Freddie Mac

13 Impact on “Willingness to Pay” The impact on a renter’s “willingness to pay” when buying a house. Federal Reserve Bank of New York

14 The DOWN PAYMENT Biggest Misconception about Mortgages Percentage of respondents to Zelman & Assoc survey who believe that you need a minimum of a 15% down payment to purchase a home. Freddie Mac

15 “It’s not that Millennials and other potential homebuyers aren’t qualified in terms of their credit scores or in how much they have saved for their down payment. It’s that they think they’re not qualified or they think that they don’t have a big enough down payment.” Housing Wire commenting on a study by Nomura

16 Julián Castro, Secretary for HUD “A home is often a primary source of wealth in a family… Having a home is generational way to pass that wealth on. We want people responsible enough to own a home to have that opportunity.”

17 A Second CHALLENGE

18 Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist “The total inventory of homes available for sale fell for the first time in 16 months… Months supply is already low at 4.4 months. More inventories are needed, not less. Or else, home prices could re-accelerate.”

19 NAR 1/2015 Year-over-Year Inventory Levels

20 Historically, number of years home sellers lived in their homes Pent Up Seller Demand Pent Up Seller Demand

21 Equity Share by State Q3 2014

22 Foot Traffic (indicator of future sales)

23 Foot Traffic (indicator of future sales)

24 Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE NAR 1/2015

25 Q: When do most listings come on the market? A: The 2 nd Quarter of each Year

26 2014 Available Inventory in millions

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28 % Change in Sales from last year by Price Range

29 NAR 1/2015 EXISTING Home Sales

30 100 = Historically Healthy Level NAR 1/2015 PENDING Home Sales

31 Freddie Mac 1/2015 Freddie Mac Actual Rates January 2013 – February 2015 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages

32 Quarter Fannie Mae Freddie Mac MBANAR Average of all four 2015 1Q3.9% 3.8%3.88% 2015 2Q4.0%4.1%4.3%4.0%4.10% 2015 3Q4.1%4.3%4.7%4.3%4.35% 2015 4Q4.2%4.5%4.8%4.7%4.55% Mortgage Rate Projections 1/2015

33 Where Are They Going? 2015 Projections Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Where Have They Been This Year? Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate

34 Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE NAR 1/2015

35 Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE NAR 1/2015

36 Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE NAR 1/2015

37 S&P Case Shiller 1/2015 Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES Case Shiller

38 S&P Case Shiller 1/2015 Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES Case Shiller

39 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 1/2015

40 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 11%14% NAR 1/2015 January 2012 - Today

41 KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM SlideSlide TitleLink 4Consumer Optimismhttp://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/tables.html 5Household Formationshttps://ycharts.com/indicators/us_household_formation 6FHA Savingshttp://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2015/01/08/fha-lowers-pricing-to-reflect-less-risk/ 7NAR Quotehttp://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2015/01/08/fha-lowers-pricing-to-reflect-less-risk/ 8Mortgage Credit Availabilityhttp://www.mba.org/ResearchandForecasts/MCAI.htm 9-12 Renters Planning on Buying, Views on Homeownership (financial & non financial), #1 Reason Won’t Buy http://www.freddiemac.com/multifamily/pdf/mf_renter_profile.pdf 13Impact on ‘Willingness To Pay’http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr702.pdf 14Down Payment Misconceptionhttp://www.freddiemac.com/news/blog/christina_boyle/20140616_mortgage_down_payments.html 15Housing Wire Quotehttp://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/30441-nomura-fear-is-keeping-demand-pent-up 16, 54Julián Castro Quotehttp://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/press/speeches_remarks_statements/2015/Statement_011315 18Lawrence Yun Quotehttp://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2015/01/26/shrinking-inventory/#sf7126105 19Year-over-Year Inventorywww.realtor.org Resources

42 KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM SlideSlide TitleLink 20Pent Up Seller Demandhttp://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2015/01/28/pent-up-sellers/#sf7158951 21Equity Share by Statehttp://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/equity-report.aspx 22-23, 24Foot Traffic, Months Inventorywww.realtor.org 25-26Listings Come to Market 2014 http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2015/01/14/ehs-in-2014-by-the-numbers-part-3-popular-listing-dates/ http://www.realtor.org/topics/existing-home-sales/data 28, 29, 30 Sales by Price Range, Existing Home Sales, Pending Home Sales www.realtor.org 31, 33 30-Year Fixed Rate, Mortgage Rate Freddie Mac 2015 http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/ehforecast.html 32Mortgage Rate Projections http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_012215.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/january_2015_public_outlook.pdf http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/90432_.pdf http://www.realtor.org 34-36Months Inventory for Salehttp://www.realtor.org/ 37, 38, 39Case Shiller YOY & HPIhttp://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller 40% of Distressed Propertieshttp://www.realtor.org/ 52NAR Membershiphttp://www.realtor.org/membership/historic-report 53Seth Godin Quotehttp://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2015/01/you-are-what-you-share.html Resources

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44 JOIN THE KCM MEMBERS FACEBOOK GROUP facebook.com/groups/kcmmembers

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52 NAR Membership in thousands NAR

53 "The culture we will live in next month is a direct result of what people like us share today. The things we share and don't share determine what happens next." Seth Godin

54 "Homeownership is still the cornerstone of the American Dream — a fact you can see in the lives of everyday folks. It’s a source of pride. It’s a source of wealth, providing both a nest and a nest egg. And it strengthens communities and fuels growth in the overall economy." Julián Castro, Secretary for HUD

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