1. INGV Real time volcanic hazard evaluation during a volcanic crisis: BET_EF and the MESIMEX experiment W. Marzocchi 1, L. Sandri 1, J. Selva 1, G. Woo 2 1- INGV-Bologna 2- Risk Management Solution Real time volcanic hazard evaluation during a volcanic crisis: BET_EF and the MESIMEX experiment W. Marzocchi 1, L. Sandri 1, J. Selva 1, G. Woo 2 1- INGV-Bologna 2- Risk Management Solution Funded by INGV/DPC V4 and V3_4 Vesuvio projects

2. INGV OUTLINE of the presentation BET and Eruption Forecasting Why and how probabilities Cost/benefit analysis Basic idea about how to use probabilities MESIMEX application Checking how BET works

3. INGV what we are estimating here… BET and Eruption Forecasting

4. INGV BET and Eruption Forecasting BET_EF Package Hazard procedure Target volcano Event selection (Unrest + Magmatic Intrusion + Eruption+Vent all locs + SIZE=2+) OUTPUT

5. INGV ABSOLUTE PROBABILITYCONDITIONAL PROBABILITY AT THE NODE Selection done: (1) unrest -> (2) magmatic intrusion -> (3) eruption -> (4) location all -> (5) SIZE=4+ Probability that all the events in the selected path occur contemporaneously Probability that the events at the selected node occur, given previous nodes BET and Eruption Forecasting

6. INGV BET_EF IS DISTRIBUTED FOR FREE A dedicated workshop will be held JULY 12, Room 16, Acad. of fine ARTS 17:30 - 20:30 (food and drinks available!) Marzocchi et al., JGR, 2004. Marzocchi et al., IAVCEI, Statistics in Volcanology, 2006. Marzocchi et al., Bull. Volc., 2007, in press. Marzocchi and Woo, in prep.

7. INGV Cost/Benefit analysis Some useful considerations… v “Eruption forecasting” means to estimate probabilities v Typical requirement from end-users: YES or NOT (but the Nature seems not to much interested in playing deterministically) v How to interpret and to use probabilities? COMPARING THEM WITH MORE USUAL EVENTS

8. INGV Cost/Benefit analysis P x L > C Let’s make the example of an evacuation (SIMPLIFIED!!!) L: cost of human lives lost due to an eruption C: cost of an evacuation P: prob. of the deadly event (i.e., prob. of a pyroclastic flow) If the cost of human lives “probably” lost exceeds the cost of an evacuation. Therefore, the evacuation might be called when P > C / L The evacuation will be called when the probability of the deadly event will overcome a threshold defined a priori by Civil Protection

9. INGV Application to MESIMEX You can download a report (in Italian) at the web site http://www.bo.ingv.it/~warner v BET_EF code applied to MESIMEX. The code is developed in the INGV- DPC V4 project (leaded by W. Marzocchi & A. Zollo). The details are in Marzocchi et al., 2007; Bull. Volc., in press. v MESIMEX is an experiment (funded by European Community) simulating a possible future reactivation of Vesuvio, aiming to check the procedures for evacuation and managing the crisis. (The pre-eruptive scenario was develop by researchers independently from this study. NO FEEDBACK, BLIND TEST) v Monitoring parameters and thresholds are taken from Marzocchi et al., JGR, 2004.A revision of parameters and thresholds is under consideration in the project INGV-DPC V3_4 Vesuvius

10. INGV Application to MESIMEX 17 Oct. 2006, 08:00; Probability per month Conditional Probability of specific size: Monitoring-independent! VEI=3: 64% VEI=4: 25% VEI=5+: 11%

11. INGV  CO 2 flux = 10 Kg m -2 d -1  Other parameters inside the background Application to MESIMEX 17 Oct. 2006, 09:00; Probability per month

12. INGV  Maximum magnitude in the last month = 4.2  Other parameters inside the background  N. events in the last month = 38  CO 2 flux = 10 Kg m -2 d -1  Seismic events localized out of crater Application to MESIMEX 18 Oct. 2006, 07:00; Probability per month

13. INGV  CO2 flux = 20 Kg m -2 d -1  Maximum magnitude in the last month= 4.2  Other parameters inside the background  N. events in the last month = 61  LP events in the last month = 2  T fumaroles = 100 0 C  Presence of SO 2  Localization of VT and LP Application to MESIMEX 19 Oct. 2006, 09:00; Probability per month

14. INGV  CO 2 flux = 30 Kg m -2 d -1  Maximum magnitude in the last month= 4.2  Other parameters inside the background  N. events in the last month = 104  LP events in the last month = 26  T fumaroles = 110 0 C  Presence of SO 2  Localization of VT and LP   5 10 -5, d  /dt = 5 10 -5 d -1   3.6 Hz, d  dt = -0.4 Hz d -1 Application to MESIMEX 19 Oct. 2006, 18:00; Probability per month If we agree with a cost/benefit ratio of 0.1, this is the moment to evacuate If we agree with a cost/benefit ratio of 0.1, this is the moment to evacuate X 0.35 = 0.22 > 0.1

15. INGV  CO 2 flux = 300 Kg m -2 d -1  Maximum magnitude in the last month= 4.2  Other parameters inside the background  N. events in the last month = 183  LP events in the last month = 61  T fumaroles = 110 0 C  Presence of SO 2  Localization of VT and LP   1 10 -4, d  /dt = 5 10 -5 d -1   3.5 Hz, d  dt = -0.5 Hz d -1 Application to MESIMEX 20 Oct. 2006, 15:00; Probability per month

16. INGV  CO 2 flux = 400 Kg m -2 d -1  Maximum magnitude in the last month= 4.2  N. events in the last month = 258  LP events in the last month = 131  T fumaroles = 110 0 C  Presence of SO 2  Localization of VT and LP   3 10 -4, d  /dt = 2 10 -4 d -1   2.5 Hz, d  dt = -1 Hz d -1 (tremor episodes)   0.3 (variations in hypocenters location) Application to MESIMEX 21 Oct. 2006, 17:00; Probability per month

17. INGV  BET is a transparent tool to calculate and to visualize probabilities related to eruption forecasting/hazard assessment  BET performed well during MESIMEX. This does not mean that will be successful in forecasting the next eruption, but that it will represent satisfactorily and quantitatively the average opinion of researchers.  Cost/Benefit analysis is a very useful tool to interpret probabilities, i.e., it helps to translate probabilities into practical actions. It needs a collaborations between scientists (probability estimation) and decision makers (cost/benefit analysis)  The strategy adopted here has some clear advantages: v it moves from subjective choices made during emergencies to objective choices defined transparently BEFORE the occurrence of a crises v it is a “scientific tool” v it creates a bridge between science and decision making Points to take home

18. INGV “There are knowns. There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns - that is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know but there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know we don't know. So when we do the best we can and we pull all this information together, and we then say well that's basically what we see as the situation, that is really only the known knowns and the known unknowns. And each year we discover a few more of those unknown unknowns.” 18 June 2003 Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld illuminates the volcanological problem :