1. To assess the impact of climate change/variability and develop adaptive responses for the mixed grain/livestock production systems SIMULATION MODELS CROP/PASTUREDSSATAPSIM CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS GCM Sensitivity analysys Scenario based on past changes

2. INPUTS CLIMATE SOIL CULTIVAR MANAGEMENT OUTPUTS GRAIN YIELD & COMP BIOMASS PHENOLOGY WATER/NITROGEN PROCESSES GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT WATER/N BALANCE CROP/PASTURE MODELS

3. MonthRAINWetSpellDrySpellTMeanTRangeSRAD (%)(%)(%)(ºC)(%)Mj Jan1.6 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.0 -0.4 0.1 0.9 0.9 -0.8 -0.5 Feb1.61.00.9-0.80.90.1 Mar1.31.00.90.70.9 Apr1.4 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 May1.51.00.90.10.90.0 Jun1.31.01.00.61.0-0.3 Jul0.8 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 Aug1.51.10.80.40.9-0.8 Sep0.80.81.10.60.90.2 Oct1.0 1.3 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.9 0.9 -0.8 -0.4 Nov1.40.80.9-0.50.9-0.8 Dec1.31.00.8-0.30.9-0.5 Changes in median values between 1930-1960 and 1970-2000 used in future scenarios.

4. Simulated Yield (DSSAT) Scenario based on past changes

5. Current F.MonthF.Quarter YieldSDYieldSDYieldSD MzSR91503670123801261114002478 PE9780271698001293101201649 TR89003342105302239118502305 Mean9277 10903 11123 Rel.Change 1.18 1.20 SbSR25201072355157730651065 PE302073929609843240924 TR234085224408673440707 Mean2627 2984 3248 Rel.Change 1.14 1.24 WhSR370013263610163044201276 PE507057346004674640495 TR46601196475011634480359 Mean4477 4320 4513 Rel.Change 0.97 1.01

6. Future tasks: To assess regional impactsTo assess regional impacts To evaluate other scenariosTo evaluate other scenarios To improve temperature and radiation in WGTo improve temperature and radiation in WG To consider mixed systemsTo consider mixed systems

7. MODELS and MIXED SYSTEMS CROPS+PASTURESROTATIONS LONG TERM ANALYSIS APSIM CROPPING SYSTEMS MODULARITYFLEXIBILITY LONG TERM Manager Report Clock SoilWat SoilN SoilPH SoilP Residue Economics Fertiliz Irrigate Crop 1 Met Erosion Other Crops Crop 3 GRASP Legume Crop 2 New Module Manure ENGINEENGINE System Control Soil Crops Management Climate

8. APSIM- GRASP This module does not simulate root growth, the nitrogen cycle and the effect of increased CO 2 concentration. Rangeland production Pastures in APSIM This module is not fully integrated within the APSIM environment. Not suitable for rotations Development of a new Module to simulate pasture growth

9. Clover Species and Cultivar Specific parameters Canopy New Module competence for light competence for Water and Nutrients Festuce Intercropping Development of a new Module to simulate pasture growth Rye Grass