1. 16 Interest Rates and Monetary Policy McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2012 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

2. Chapter Objectives The equilibrium interest rate and the market for money Monetary policy How the Fed controls the Federal funds rate How monetary policy affects GDP and the price level Effectiveness of monetary policy and its shortcomings 33-2

3. Interest Rates The price paid for the use of money Many different interest rates Speak as if only one interest rate Determined by the money supply and money demand LO1 16-3

4. Demand for Money Why hold money? Transactions demand, D t Determined by nominal GDP Independent of the interest rate Asset demand, D a Money as a store of value Varies inversely with the interest rate Total money demand, D m LO1 16-4

5. Demand for Money Rate of interest, i percent 10 7.5 5 2.5 0 50100150200 50100150200 50100150200250300 Amount of money demanded (billions of dollars) Amount of money demanded (billions of dollars) Amount of money demanded and supplied (billions of dollars) = + (a) Transactions demand for money, D t (b) Asset demand for money, D a (c) Total demand for money, D m and supply DtDt DaDa DmDm SmSm 5 LO1 16-5

6. Interest Rates Equilibrium interest rate Changes with shifts in money supply and money demand Interest rates and bond prices Inversely related Bond pays fixed annual interest payment Lower bond price will raise the interest rate LO1 16-6

7. Assets Securities Loans to commercial banks Liabilities Reserves of commercial banks Treasury deposits Federal Reserve Notes outstanding LO2 Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 16-7

8. March 24, 2010 (in Millions) Source: Federal Reserve Statistical Release, H.4.1, March 24, 2010, http://www.federalreserve.govhttp://www.federalreserve.gov Securities Loans to Commercial Banks All Other Assets Total Reserves of Commercial Banks Treasury Deposits Federal Reserve Notes (Outstanding) All Other Liabilities and Net Worth Total $2,017,955 85,659 212,911 $2,316,525 $ 1,147,747 150,087 893,035 125,656 $2,316,525 LO2 Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Assets Liabilities and Net Worth 16-8

9. Central Banks LO2 16-9

10. Tools of Monetary Policy Open market operations Buying and selling of government securities (or bonds) Commercial banks and the general public Used to influence the money supply When the Fed sells securities, commercial bank reserves are reduced LO2 16-10

11. Tools of Monetary Policy Fed buys bonds from commercial banks AssetsLiabilities and Net Worth Federal Reserve Banks + Securities+ Reserves of Commercial Banks (b) Reserves Commercial Banks -Securities (a) +Reserves (b) Assets Liabilities and Net Worth LO2 (a) Securities 16-11

12. Tools of Monetary Policy Fed sells bonds to commercial banks AssetsLiabilities and Net Worth Federal Reserve Banks - Securities- Reserves of Commercial Banks Commercial Banks + Securities (a) - Reserves (b) Assets Liabilities and Net Worth (a) Securities (b) Reserves LO2 16-12

13. Open Market Operations Fed buys $1,000 bond from a commercial bank New Reserves $5000 Bank System Lending Total Increase in the Money Supply, ($5,000) $1000 Excess Reserves LO2 16-13

14. Open Market Operations Fed buys $1,000 bond from the public Check is Deposited New Reserves $1000 Total Increase in the Money Supply, ($5000) $200 Required Reserves $800 Excess Reserves $1000 Initial Checkable Deposit $4000 Bank System Lending LO2 16-14

15. Tools of Monetary Policy The reserve ratio Changes the money multiplier The discount rate The Fed as lender of last resort Short term loans Term auction facility Introduced December 2007 Banks bid for the right to borrow reserves LO2 16-15

16. The Reserve Ratio Effects of Changes in the Reserve Ratio (1) Reserve Ratio, % (2) Checkable Deposits (3) Actual Reserves (4) Required Reserves (5) Excess Reserves, (3) –(4) (6) Money-Creating Potential of Single Bank, = (5) (7) Money-Creating Potential of Banking System (1) 10$20,000$5000$2000$3000 $30,000 (2) 20 20,000 5000 4000 1000 5000 (3) 2520,000 5000 0 0 0 (4) 30 20,000 5000 6000-1000 -3333 LO2 16-16

17. Tools of Monetary Policy Open market operations are the most important and frequently used Reserve ratio last changed in 1992 Discount rate was a passive tool Term auction facility is new Guaranteed amount lent by the Fed Anonymous LO2 16-17

18. The Federal Funds Rate Rate charged by banks on overnight loans Targeted by the Federal Reserve FOMC conducts open market operations to achieve the target Demand curve for Federal funds Supply curve for Federal funds LO3 16-18

19. Monetary Policy Expansionary monetary policy Economy faces a recession Lower target for Federal funds rate Fed buys securities Expanded money supply Downward pressure on other interest rates LO3 16-19

20. Monetary Policy Restrictive monetary policy Periods of rising inflation Increases Federal funds rate Increases money supply Increases other interest rates LO3 16-20

21. 10 8 4 6 2 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Percent Year Prime interest rate Federal funds rate Monetary Policy 16-21

22. Taylor Rule Rule of thumb for tracking actual monetary policy Fed has 2% target inflation rate If real GDP = potential GDP and inflation is 2%, then targeted Federal funds rate is 4% Target varies as inflation and real GDP vary LO3 16-22

23. Monetary Policy, Real GDP, Price Level Affect on real GDP and price level Cause-effect chain Market for money Investment and the interest rate Investment and aggregate demand Real GDP and prices Expansionary monetary policy Restrictive monetary policy LO4 16-23

24. Monetary Policy and Equilibrium GDP 10 8 6 0 Rate of Interest, i (Percent) Amount of money demanded and supplied (billions of dollars) Amount of investment (billions of dollars) Price Level Real GDP (billions of dollars) Q1Q1 QfQf Q3Q3 $125$150$175$15$20$25 P2P2 P3P3 S m1 S m2 S m3 DmDm ID AD 1 I=$15 AD 2 I=$20 AD 3 I=$25 (a) The market for money (b) Investment demand (c) Equilibrium real GDP and the Price level AS LO4 16-24

25. Price Level Real GDP (billions of dollars) Q1Q1 QfQf Q3Q3 P2P2 P3P3 AD 1 I=$15 AD 2 I=$20 AD 3 I=$25 (c) Equilibrium real GDP and the Price level AS Price Level Real GDP (billions of dollars) Q1Q1 QfQf Q3Q3 P2P2 P3P3 AD 1 I=$15 AD 2 I=$20 AD 3 I=$25 (d) Equilibrium real GDP and the Price level AS a b c AD 4 I=$22.5 Monetary Policy and Equilibrium GDP (AS-AD Model) LO4 16-25

26. Expansionary Monetary Policy Problem: Unemployment and Recession Fed buys bonds, lowers reserve ratio, lowers the discount rate, or increases reserve auctions Excess reserves increase Federal funds rate falls Money supply rises Interest rate falls Investment spending increases Aggregate demand increases Real GDP rises LO4 CAUSE-EFFECT CHAIN 16-26

27. Restrictive Monetary Policy Problem: Inflation Fed sells bonds, increases reserve ratio, increases the discount rate, or decreases reserve auctions Excess reserves decrease Federal funds rate rises Money supply falls Interest rate rises Investment spending decreases Aggregate demand decreases Inflation declines CAUSE-EFFECT CHAIN LO4 16-27

28. Evaluation and Issues Advantages over fiscal policy Speed and flexibility Isolation from political pressure Monetary policy is more subtle than fiscal policy LO5 16-28

29. Recent U.S. Monetary Policy Highly active in recent decades Responded with quick and innovative actions during the recent financial crisis and the severe recession Critics contend the Fed contributed to the crisis by keeping the Federal funds rate too low for too long LO5 16-29

30. Problems and Complications Lags Recognition and operational Cyclical asymmetry Liquidity trap LO5 16-30

31. The Big Picture Levels of Output, Employment, Income, and Prices Aggregate Demand Aggregate Supply Input Resources With Prices Productivity Sources Legal- Institutional Environment Consumption (C a ) Investment (I g ) Net Export Spending (X n ) Government Spending (G) 16-31

32. Key Terms monetary policy interest transactions demand asset demand total demand for money open-market operations reserve ratio discount rate term auction facility Federal funds rate expansionary monetary policy prime interest rate restrictive monetary policy Taylor rule cyclical asymmetry mortgage debt crisis 33-32