1. 1 DPR Korean Energy Demand/Supply Analysis: Energy Balance Sheet 2003 1 DPRK Energy Experts Study Group Meeting June 26 – June 27, 2006 Standford University, Palo Alto, California, USA Kyung-Sool Kim Korea Energy Economics Institute Center for Energy Research, Northeast Asia

2. 2 A. Overview A. Overview 1 1. Gvnt ’ s Official Estimates on Primary Energy Supply ■ TPES of Coal, Oil, Hydro and Others ■ Socio-Economic Comparison between South/North Korea, Korean National Statistical Office, Published at the end of every year 2. Other Sources ■ From related organizations, institutions, industries, departments of government, ■ experts, media and sometimes from DPR Korea 3. Bold assumption and experts judgments ■ Estimates and inferences ■ Refugee Interview

3. 3 B. Primary Energy Supply B. Primary Energy Supply 1 ■ Primary Energy Supply in 2004: 16.5 mil. TOE  69.0% level of 1990’s Average Annual Growth Rate of  Coal: -2.6%  Oil: -5.0%  Hydro: -1.3%  Others: -2.6%  TPES: -2.6% CoalOilHydroOthersTPES 19901657525203748112023963 1991155001890375078021920 1992140201520355078020450 1993135501360332379919013 199412700910348078517870 1995118501100355079517280 1996105001436212079115836 1997103001006266078414746 199893001400255077614030 199910500881279478014955 2000112501117254078015687 2001115501250265078016230 2002109501253265578015640 2003111501219293078016079 2004114001230312578016535 '90-'04-2.6-5.0-1.3-2.6 '04/'9068.848.883.469.669.0

4. 4 B. Primary Energy Supply B. Primary Energy Supply 1 When TPES in 1990 is 1.0  oil decreased to 0.69, coal decreased to 0.688 1990 = 1.01990199520002001200220032004 Primary Total1.0000.7210.6550.6770.6530.6710.690 Coal1.0000.7150.6790.6970.6610.6730.688 Oil1.0000.4370.4430.4960.4970.4840.488 Hydro1.0000.9470.6780.7070.7080.7820.834 Others1.0000.7100.696

5. 5 B. Primary Energy Supply B. Primary Energy Supply 1 Share of TPES(%)1990199520002001200220032004 Coal69.268.671.771.270.069.368.9 Oil10.56.47.17.78.07.67.4 Hydro15.620.516.216.317.018.218.9 Others4.74.65.04.85.04.94.7 Total100.0 No significant change in TPES structure  Oil share decreased from 10.5%(1990) to 7.4%(2004)  Hydro share increased from 15.6%(1990) to 18.9%(2004)

6. 6 B. Primary Energy Supply B. Primary Energy Supply 1 TOE per capita decreased from 1.18 (1990) to 0.73 (2004) TOE/GNI decreased from 1.14 (1990) to 0.92 (2004) 1990199520002001200220032004'90-'04 TPES (thou. TOE)23963172801568716230156401607916535-2.6 Population (thou. people)202212154322175222532236922522227090.8 GNI('95,bil. Won)21045171701650117112173171762918017-1.1 TOE/Person1.180.80.710.730.700.710.73-3.4 TOE/mil. Won1.141.010.95 0.900.910.92-1.5

7. 7 C. Final Energy Consumption - Coal C. Final Energy Consumption - Coal 1 ■ Estimation of the structure of sectoral coal consumption 19902000 Thermal Power Gen.45%42% Industry48%52% Household7%6% * Ministry of Electricity and Coal Industry, DPRK, 2001 P. Gen.IndustryHouseholdPub./other 1990-9345%44%7%4% 1994-9544%45%7%4% 1996-9743%47%6%4% 1998-0442%48%6%4% Coal Demand/Supply Sectoral Demand Primary Supply Power Generation Final Consumption IndustryHouseholdPublic/Others 1990165757459911672931160663 199511850521466365333830474 200011250472565255400675450 200111550485166995544693462 200210950459963515256657438 200311150468364675352669446 200411400478866125472684456

8. 8 C. Final Energy Consumption - Oil C. Final Energy Consumption - Oil 1 ■ Estimation of Oil Import, Heavy Oil for Power Generation and the results of Distillation From government's official statistics thou. TOETotal Supply Crude Oil Import Oil Product Import Final Consumption Sum Heavy Oil for P. Gen. Other Products 19902520 N.A. 2293 19951100951149 865 20001117389728495233587 20011250580670495175703 20021253696557406151784 20031219669550306244853 20041230620610306304868 From The Bank of Korea “ Economic growth rate of DPRK ” Total Supply minus Crude Oil Import 1995-2002: KEDO Heavy Oil, 2003~: Heavy Oil from Distillation + Some of Imported Heavy Oil Total Product Import minus H. Oil for P. Gen. (Crude Oil Import * 0.91) + Other Products

9. 9 C. Final Energy Consumption - Oil C. Final Energy Consumption - Oil 1 ■ Application of sectoral share of oil consumption in 1990 to all years IndustryHouseholdTransportOthers Share (%)38.14.618.838.5 * National Report to UNFCCC of DPRK, 2000 Thou.TOE Final Oil Consumption IndustryTransportHouseholdPublic/Others 19902293873431106883 199586532916340333 200058722311027226 200170326813232271 200278429914736302 200385332516039328 200486833116340334 Sectoral Share of Oil Consumption (1990)

10. 10 C. Final Energy Consumption - Others C. Final Energy Consumption - Others 1 ■ Application of sectoral share of other energy (Nautilus Results) Sectoral Share of Other Energy IndustryTransportHouseholdPublic/Other 19900.2860.0050.7080.000 19960.2100.0030.7870.000 20000.1980.0030.7990.000 * Nautilus Thou. TOETotal SupplyIndustryTransportHouseholdPublic/Others 1990112032167930 199579522845630 200078015426240 200178015426240 200278015426240 200378015426240 200478015426240 From government's official statistics

11. 11 C. Final Energy Consumption - Electricity C. Final Energy Consumption - Electricity 1 ■ Application of sectoral share of other energy (Nautilus Results) Sectoral Share of Electricity IndustryTransportHouseholdPublic/Other 19900.6130.1080.0990.180 19960.5330.0890.1330.244 20000.5600.1200.0800.240 * Nautilus From government's official statistics Thou. TOEGenerationFinal Con.IndustryTransportHouseholdPublic/Other 1990238219061167206189343 199519781484909160147267 20001668116865414093280 20011737121668114697292 20021634114464113792275 20031686118066114294283 20041772124069414999298 T&D Losses: ~ 92: 20% 93~95: 25% 96 ~: 30% (J.M. Kim, 2001)

12. 12 C. Final Energy Consumption C. Final Energy Consumption 1 ■ Final Energy Consumption by Sources CoalOilOtherElec.Total 1990994522931120176015118 1995663686579514849780 2000652558778011689060 2001669970378012169398 2002635179378011449068 2003646786178011809288 2004661286878012259485 90-'04-2.9-6.7-2.6 -3.3

13. 13 C. Final Energy Consumption C. Final Energy Consumption 1 ■ Final Energy Consumption by Sector IndustryTransportHouseholdPublic/OthersTotal 1990102286272338192515118 19956800327157910749780 2000643125214209579060 20016646280144710259398 20026352288140910199068 20036494305142710629288 20046642312144610859485 90-'04-3.0-4.9-3.4-4.0-3.3

14. 14 D. Energy Transformation D. Energy Transformation 1 ■ Energy Input for Power Generation Coal Input = -(Electricity Generated+ Hydro Input * Eff. + Oil Input * Eff.)/Eff. From Government ’ s Official Statistics (Oil Products Import + Distillated Products) – Final Oil Consumption ■ Oil Distillation: Products Acquisition Rate (91%) Applied Own Use & Losses

15. 15 E. Energy Balance Sheet 2004 E. Energy Balance Sheet 2004 1 CoalCrude OilOil ProductsHydroOthersElectricityTotal Energy Supply11,4006206103,125780-16,535 Domestic Production11,400--3,125780-15,305 Import0620610-0-1,230 Export0----0 Energy Transformation(4,788)(620)258(3,125)01,225(7,050) Power Generation(3,956)-(306)(3,125)-1,771(5,616) Oil Distillation-(620)564---(56) Own Use(662)----(124)(786) Losses(170)----(422)(592) Final Consumption6,612-868-7801,2259,485 Industry5,472-330-1546866,642 Transport0-163-2147312 Household684 40-624981,446 Public/Others456-335-02941,085

16. 16 F. Further Development F. Further Development 1 ■ Data Gathering  DPR Korean Official Statistics  Survey on Energy Consuming Behavior ■ Biomass in Energy Balance Sheet  Non-Commercial Energy: Excluded in IEA Standard  Separate Format for Biomass Use ■ International Cooperation  DPR Korean Expert Training for Energy Data System  Cooperative Research Projects with DPRK  Energy Survey in DPR Korea

17. 17 1 THANK YOU VERY MUCH