1. Report on Aid and Stability in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Prepared for the U.S. State Department Office of Financial Assistance Prepared by Caitlin Fogarty, International Development Solutions

2. Nigeria and ECOWAS Stability U.S. assistance to Nigeria in 2009: $519,270,000, in part due to the country’s role as a regional stabilizer within it’s conflict-ridden neighborhood Fearon & Laitin’s civil war predictor model reveals that it is Nigeria, rather than its dependent neighbors, that is the most likely to break out into civil war In light of this, the U.S. government should not focus foreign assistance in the region so heavily on Nigeria, but should increase funding to other ECOWAS states

3. Civil War Predictor Variables: Economic Community of West African States ECOWAS Country2009 GNI per capita (PPP)Population (in millions)Oil Exports (in BBL/day) Benin$1,5109.88,770 Burkina Faso$1,17016.20 Cape Verde$3,5300.50 Cote d’Ivoire$1,64022.0115,700 Ghana$1,48024.04,843 Guinea$94010.80 Guinea Bissau$1,0601.60 The Gambia$1,3301.842 Liberia$2904.123 Mali$1,19015.20 Mauritania$1,9603.430,620 Niger$66015.90 Nigeria$1,980158.32,327,000 Senegal$1,79012.55,653 Sierra Leone$7905.8502 Togo$8506.81,547

4. Nigeria and Civil War Low per capita income: $1,980 High population: 158.3 million people – most populous country in Africa; 8 th in the world High oil exports: 2,327,000 bbl/day, – 95% of total exports; 7 th largest exporter in the world

5. What would a Nigerian civil war mean for West Africa? Civil war in Nigeria, the regional giant, could lead to increased destabilization in the already volatile West African region

6. Policy Recommendations The U.S. government should continue to provide high levels of aid to Nigeria. Aid may serve to increase per capita income and thus slightly decrease the probability of civil war in the country The United States should not continue to focus funding on Nigeria based on the belief that Nigeria will hold the region together In order to soften the regional effects of a possible Nigerian civil war, the United States should increase funding to other members of ECOWAS, especially within the governance and conflict management programs, in order to decrease their dependence on Nigeria for stability

7. FY 2009 Estimate of U.S. Foreign Assistance to West Africa: Ranking of Countries from Most to Least Assistance Nigeria $519,270,000 Liberia $189,980,000 Cote d’Ivoire $101,280,000 Ghana $90,395,000 Mali $77,080,000 Senegal $70,912,000 Benin $30,900,000 Burkina Faso $19,870,000 Sierra Leone $19,750,000 Niger $16,123,000 Guinea $13,461,000 Mauritania $5,520,000 Cape Verde $600,000 Guinea Bissau $200,000 Togo $130,000 The Gambia $120,000