1. Program Approach and Theories of Change Michael Drinkwater, PIKL West Africa Program Quality Forum Segou, September 2009

2. Introduction: Why the Program Approach? The Program Approach is a new way of doing business It is about changing the way we work, reconstructing our identity and reputation, and becoming more effective at addressing underlying cause of poverty and social injustice Why are we doing this, and why do we think the PA will make us more effective?

3. A Short History of Program Quality in CARE 1996-2000 LRSP: Introduction of HLS and Partnership Focus. LRSPs introduced. New project design cycle and program manual. PSMI developed 2000-2006 LRSP: Introduction of RBAs 2003: RBA Characteristics become CI Program Principles 2004-05: Unifying Framework developed 2005: Women’s Empowerment SII begun 2007: Program Approach incorporated in new CARE USA SP. Already demonstrated in LAC April 2008: Istanbul conference launches learning lab and satellites strategy May 2008: Program definition and characteristics adopted by CI Program Working Group

4. Remember why we need to change… Underlying causes of poverty not being addressed Short term projects do not address poverty New development approaches Northern policies Social movements Critique of International NGOs Importance of impact assessment

5. SII on Women’s Empowerment: Our portfolio 15%positioned for sustained societal impact 60% positioned for individual/small impact 25% showing little or no impact WHY?: Failure to target UCPs - what really drives poverty in context No theory of how UCPs actually change – and our contribution Too “CARE-centric”- UCPs require synergies and alliances One-off projects fail to build on prior gains and relationships Organizational amnesia: project closes, staff go, learning ends Organizational measures of success – size and stability The Evidence: We must change

6. CARE’s THEORY OF CHANGE: HOW WE WILL ADDRESS POVERTY  Using a series of projects and related activities (in programs) that demonstrate a long- term commitment to the community  Addressing all three components of the Unifying Framework  Leveraging our areas of expertise, informed by our deep understanding of the needs of the community Addressing power imbalances resulting from  Poor governance  Gender inequities  Discrimination  Social and economic exclusion  Women and girls are the most vulnerable  They have a differential impact on community well-being  We acknowledge that working with men and boys will be crucial to our ongoing work Addressing basic human conditions through sectoral interventions And addressing social injustice & inequity CARE helps communities achieve long- term reductions in poverty by… With a focus on marginalize d women & girls Developing human capabilities & providing economic opportunit y Project to Program shift in COs: Skills, Knowledge, Policies, Mental Models + Coherent global impact measurement system to tell our story Analysis, design, monitoring, and evaluation capabilities up to the task Global knowledge/learning capacity: Faster, more focused More focused sectoral and technical strategies; possible new foci

7. Definition of a Program A program is a coherent set of initiatives by CARE and our allies that involves a long term commitment to specific marginalized and vulnerable groups to achieve lasting impact at broad scale on underlying causes of poverty and social injustice. This goes beyond the scope of projects to achieve positive changes in human conditions, in social positions and in the enabling environment.

8. 8 Characteristics of a Program 1.A clearly defined goal for impact on the lives of a specific group, realized at broad scale. 2.A thorough analysis of underlying causes of poverty, gender inequality, and social injustice at multiple levels with multiple stakeholders. 3.An explicit theory of change that is rigorously tested and adapted to reflect ongoing learning. 4.A coherent set of initiatives that enable CARE and our partners to contribute significantly to the transformation articulated in the theory of change. 5.Ability to promote organizational and social learning, to generate knowledge and evidence of impact. 6.Contribution to broad movements for social change through our work with and strengthening of partners, networks and alliances. 7.A strategy to leverage and influence the use and allocation of financial and other resources within society for maximizing change at a broader scale. 8.Accountability systems to internal and external stakeholders that are transparent.

9. A Programmatic Approach: The Mind Shift It is difficult to shift our mindsets about our work, about what it should be about, and about the scope and scale we need to reach. Projects – and even related sequences of projects – are an answer to the question, “What can CARE do?” (even if there are contractual partnerships within the project). Programs – when crafted correctly – respond to a different question: “What is the change in society (impact) that we wish to catalyze?”

10. A Programmatic Approach: The Mind Shift - 2 A program is more about CARE articulating a picture and vision of social change – one of course in line with government and MDG strategies – that moves others to join forces with us (and us with them) to achieve something far beyond our sole ability to accomplish. It is about being both more AMBITIOUS and more REALISTIC than we are conventionally when working in projects.

11. How are new programs different? Need to ensure that as COs reorganize their project portfolios into programs, that this is not simply a relabeling exercise (sectors now become programs) Importance of having early on a clear identification of impact populations Distinction between impact population, target group and stakeholders

13. Male and female youth living with HIV/AIDS Impact Group Youth urban daily laborers Unemploy ed youth (addicted) Urban Unemploy ed youth Rural- urban migrant CSWs ACSI Chat ‘Bet’/houses Ønp? Women Association Youth Association Micro enterprises MunicipalityPA CBOS (Target + Stakeholders) Microfinance institutions Private sector (Industrialists) BOLSA Like- minded LNGOS Micro Finance Inst. Brokers Community at transit Woreda? MSE?Police Education Office Bureau of Youth & Sports Health Bureau Hotel owners & house renters Youth associations, Women associations, Kebele Administration Schools community Urban youth parents Resource poor youth in urban and peri- urban areas vulnerable to HIV & AIDS Key: Blue – (Sub) Impact groups Yellow – Stakeholders Purple – Target groups Impact, Target, Sub Groups and Stakeholders

14. Long Term Impact Goal This is a 10-15 year ambition, and specifies the kind of enduring impact we would like to see being achieved in the lives of the impact population group, at broad scale When we start to build our strategy, the idea is that we should be both ambitious and realistic

15. Why Theories of Change? Social change is a messy, complex affair, rather than a predictable, linear process But while social change is complex and incoherent, it is not unintelligible We have to be adaptive, iterative and non-linear – we have to seize opportunities and learn what works and what doesn’t work.

16. Theory of Change: Working Definition A set of hypotheses and critical assumptions that make up a causal pathway of change which is the basis of the program design. A set of hypotheses and critical assumptions that make up a causal pathway of change which is the basis of the program design. Hypotheses are ‘if-then’ statements between different levels of the change pathway Hypotheses are ‘if-then’ statements between different levels of the change pathway These are our best guesses. The unintended and unexpected will always feature large. These are our best guesses. The unintended and unexpected will always feature large.

17. CARE Malawi Program Shift: Impact Groups Theory of Change - 2

18. Change Pathways, and their Assumptions A path of change is like a road map – but one where we have an idea of the destination, but will have to experiment to find an effective route of getting there The change pathway(s) laid out for achieving our long-term impact goal has to be hypothetical because it is based on assumptions It gives us a hypothetical answer to the question: what is the change we are working for and what needs (beliefs, activities, approaches) to happen for the change to come about? It serves as a planning and reflection tool and should be regularly reviewed and adjusted (testing the assumptions, measuring breakthroughs and re- examining the pace of change) It serves as a planning and reflection tool and should be regularly reviewed and adjusted (testing the assumptions, measuring breakthroughs and re- examining the pace of change)

19. Domains of Change Are areas in which change is essential to achieving an impact goal. Are areas in which change is essential to achieving an impact goal. A goal may have 2-4 domains of change A goal may have 2-4 domains of change A domain of change may be seen as a precondition for reaching the goal A domain of change may be seen as a precondition for reaching the goal Represent all three outcome areas of the Unifying Framework Represent all three outcome areas of the Unifying Framework

20. Breakthrough A change that represents a leap forward or an advance on the pathway of change that is not easily reversed. A change that represents a leap forward or an advance on the pathway of change that is not easily reversed. In its most important form, it is a structural or systemic change. On a smaller scale, it can be something that happens for the first time In its most important form, it is a structural or systemic change. On a smaller scale, it can be something that happens for the first time Can be visualized as reaching a mountain peak on the road to achieving the goal; the view ahead changes Can be visualized as reaching a mountain peak on the road to achieving the goal; the view ahead changes

21. Bangladesh TOC: Women’s Empowerment - 1 Narrative Form The most socially economically, politically marginalized women will be empowered by women’s greater exercise of choice in decision affecting their lives at all levels and reduced violence against women and girls. This, accompanied by a strong social movement built on women’s solidarity and participation of men, will have a multiplier effect in realizing the impact vision

22. Desired Long-term Goal (related to population impact group) Domain of changeDomain of Change Breakthrough Current Situation, including underlying causes/barriers to change 1 2 3 4 6 7 Pathways of change Indicators related to breakthroughs, domains, and long-term goal Assumptions and Risks 5 Stakeholders

23. Power Within: Theory of Change

24. Bangladesh TOC: Women’s Empowerment - 2 CARE Bangladesh Impact Statement on the most Socially, Economically and Politically Marginalized Women Women will be empowered by: Exercise of greater choice in decisions affecting their lives Reduced violence against women Strong Social movements built on women's solidarity and participation of men + X

25. Bangladesh TOC: Women’s Empowerment - 3 The “+” sign signifies that the two domains are not necessarily inter-dependent but mutually supportive. The intent is to see a positive trendline in both, with one reinforcing the other. The strong social movements is a multiplier on the achievements of the two domains of change. Social movements will sustain and carry forward those achievements and will scale up the impact at national level. It is not enough for CARE Bangladesh to be satisfied with empowering a few women; it must think about the next generation. The multiplier effect is also present in the pressure for structural change upon the institutions and norms that survive the cycles of repressive governments with the potential to help temper an unstable political environment. Finally, our SII research has shown us that solidarity building is crucial for women’s empowerment.

26. Theories of Change: Summary A Theory of Change consists of a number of domains of change linked together in an hypothesis to achieve the impact goal It has also a set of change pathways, with identified breakthrough areas Together, the domains of change + the pathways provide a plausible set of hypotheses and assumptions to address the major underlying causes/ barriers It need not be complex, but it must be logical and coherent

27. From Theory of Change to Program Strategy In starting to develop the program strategy from the TOC, we move from nouns (in the change pathways) to verbs, from the things we wish to achieve to the activities and actions needed to achieve them In this, we need to weigh up risk carefully We start by look for the opportunities we can use as entry points to start the process And remember WE CANNOT DO THIS ALONE