1. Alan Dunster Associates Past Present and Future Insight

2. FRESA FSO3 Natural Balance Supply and Demand Activity Sub-Group The South West Skills Market – A review of Supply and Demand Understanding of skills market Joint planning and development Responding to skills shortages

3. Activity 1 - SLIM Analysis of the Supply and Demand for Skills in South West England Activity 2 - ADA Assessment of Organisations’ Policies and Capacity to Anticipate and Respond to Skills Shortages Overview of Methodology – Activity 2

4. Activity 2 - Broad Objectives Analyse policies of FRESA organisations against skills market Analyse steps and barriers to improving joint planning, including role of data/research Assess barriers to responding to skills shortage

5. Key Research Questions – Issues raised in: Project Spec, Regional Skills Partnership Spec, and FRESA What are the key strategies, structures and processes in place to identify and respond to skills shortages? Strategies: Policies, plans and actions Structures: Roles, relationships and boundaries Processes: Approaches and practices, including use of data/research Drivers and barriers to coherence Impacts/gaps in relation to the skills market What is the contextual relationship between data/research and the strategies, structures and processes? Drivers and barriers to coherence Impacts/gaps in relation to the skills market What steps need to be taken to improve coherence and joint planning to identify and respond to skills shortages? Gaps, barriers and actions required

6. Managing Expectations Objective 2 of Master Project Examine impact of ‘interventions’ on skills market – not an evaluation exercise! Objective 3 of Master Project Analysis of relationship between research and action – infinite web of influence above and below SW Regional context Focus more upon: –Research, data and intelligence role in policy, rather than all elements of skills policy interaction (been done before – SW-RA) –Regional relevancy rather than national or localised issues (reflecting strategic regional level of FRESA)

7. Method Desk Research (50 documents so far) Telephone Interviews (x 40-50 Jan) Face to face interviews (x 10-15 Feb) Early finding reporting (March) Scenario workshops (x 3 April) Reporting (June)

8. Development of Research Stages KRQs Desk Research Further RQs Telephone Interviews Further RQs Face to face Interviews Refine RQs Scenario Workshops Early Findings Reporting

9. Development of Research Stages Desk Research Identify Issues Face to face Interviews Telephone Interviews Identify Solutions Scenario Workshops Test Solutions

10. Strategy/Policy Analysis Frameworks Magenta Book (Cab Office) Policy review –The intervention –The target population –The expected outcomes Strategic Cohesion –Impact of other strategies –Impact upon other strategies –Cross-referencing and gaps Decision Drivers –Research/data –Other intelligence –Policy drivers –Other drivers Joint Planning –Partnerships –Organisational roles –Organisational culture

11. Analysis Methods Policy Review Frameworks –Matrices –Indexed commentaries –By organisation type, theme, etc Strategy and Organisational Interrelationships? –Systems Dynamics Thinking (partnership with University of Plymouth) Causal feedback loop diagrams Principal-agent analysis

12. Skills Shortages - Causal Feedback Skills Shortage Applicants Redundancies Reduce the Need Automate Move production Recognition Skilled Labour Force Meet the Need FE/HE/WBL B R B Delay Skills Gaps Margin Resources Staff Turnover WFD Training Productivity R R B

13. LMI and Principal-Agent Knowledge Flows Regiona l Strategi c LMI SSCs LSC Funded Provider Plans LSC BL/SBS National LSC Targets RDA Employers’ Needs Private Provision Employer Organisations Interpretation Live LMI National Strategi c LMI Local LMI

14. Analysis Methods Policy Review Frameworks –Matrices –Indexed commentaries –By organisation type, theme, etc Strategy and Organisational Interrelationships? –Systems Dynamics Thinking (partnership with University of Plymouth) Causal feedback loop diagrams Principal-agent analysis Qualitative Data –Analysis Framework Key research questions, themes and issues Keeping strategic regional focus

15. Organisations Non-Statutory Organisations Federation of Small Businesses* CBI* TUC SW* HERDA SW* SW AOC* SWFET Key private providers Key VCS providers – Learning+ South West Forum* CVSs Local Learning Networks Statutory Organisations DfES DWP DTI GOSW * SW RDA* SW Regional Assembly* Regional LGA/Local Authorities* National LSC Local LSCs*, Somerset & WoE Local Learning Partnerships Job Centre Plus* Connexions SBS/Business Link* – Business West & B SSCs/SSDA* Skills for Business Network Education Business Partnerships SW HE institutions – University of Plymouth FE Colleges and 6 th Forms - SW AOC? IAG providers Economic/Sub-regional Partnerships – Exeter & Bristol

16. Thoughts? LSC Local Annual Plans? SSCs with regional plans – NHS WDC? Private providers? Sub-regional partnerships with own plans on skills shortages? Voluntary sector?

17. Alan Dunster Associates Past Present and Future Insight T: 01752 222859 M: 07816 753351 E: adunster@eurobell.co.ukadunster@eurobell.co.uk