1. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 ISSUE MANAGEMENT Strategic Issues we expect to face in the next “n” years What do we achieve by addressing them Ladder upwards towards goals and “not-goals” Discover emergent system of goals

2. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 ISSUE MANAGEMENT What is happening to generate the issues Ladder down to discover emergent beliefs system These provide the basis for option surfacing Use the “Oracle question”

3. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 “The nicest thing about not planning is that failure comes as a complete surprise, and is not preceded by a period of worry and depression” John Preston, Bolton College from the Observer, 22 Jan 1995

4. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 The Framework for Strategic Direction Core Distinctive Competencies the Livelihood Scheme - Business Model the Goal System - values & aspirations Mission or Vision statement

5. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 Participation - key actors Explore informal dynamic power base of: –anticipated losers –anticipated winners –genuine cynics –opinion formers –ideas generators (“plants”) –saboteur – sit back and wait & see before jumping

6. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 Danger of Partial Views Figure without ground, action without contexts systems without antecedents, world without history time and perspective, change without continuities large patterns and processes, minimal appreciation of sub-processes Andrew Pettigrew

7. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 The Framework for Strategic Direction Core Distinctive Competencies the Livelihood Scheme - Business Model the Goal System - values & aspirations Mission or Vision statement

8. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999

9. Feedback Loops with Action ‘Teardrops’

10. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 A Distinctive Competence is: difficult to emulate cannot be bought very high cost of entry very long time to attain uncodified – don't know how it works, – thus others can't work out how it works either unique portfolio - patterns and feedback loops any DC is the label given to an emerging pattern of competencies (eg "professionalism" is the aggregation of many competencies) meeting aspirations is solely dependent upon DC's - it is the “livelihood scheme”

11. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 The Discovery of Distinctive Competencies a loop of C's might make the loop a DC a loop with at least one DC in it is important because it sustains the DC a patterning of C's might be particularly important (in other words the pattern is the DC because nobody else could achieve the pattern even if they could get the C's) loops with ability to resource the DC's makes the DC's more powerful note: a DC is not necessarily a good thing

12. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 Competence Characteristics Important Competencies –competencies that others might have but that are the support to DC's Desirable DC's –a competence that is central/core to the overall pattern of competencies and so if it could be made a DC then it would be powerful Gaining New DC's –new relationships between existing DC's –luck: emergence of patterns of competencies

13. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 Distinctive Competencies Core Values, Goals, Aspirations System Livelihood Scheme - Business Model The Cycle of Coherence between DCs, Livelihood, Aspirations Determining Strategic Direction

14. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 Developing “Cause Maps” re-organise the cluster “the tear-drop” “GOALS” or DISASTEROUS outcomes ISSUES or possible STRATEGIES more detailed OPTIONS MEANS END OPTION Desired OUTCOME If possible - convert the language to proposition - put in a verb, get rid of questions Direction of Arrow

15. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999

17. purpose values strategy standards & behaviour moral statements about right & wrong link to staff personal values about why they would like to work for the organisation inspirational & emotional core goals & stakeholders the “business idea” or “livelihood scheme” THE MISSION STATEMENT

18. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 purpose values strategy standards & behaviour what the organisation believes in eg “treating staff openly” eg “participative management” the politics & behaviour patterns that guide how the organisation operates WHY ARE THE VALUES GOING TO HELP? WHY ARE THE BEHAVIOURS ATTRACTIVE? THE STRATEGIES DESIGNED TO ACHIEVE THE PURPOSE THE MISSION STATEMENT

19. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 “In the complex and turbulent environment of today traditional forecasting methods, such as trend extrapolation and regression are seen to be too dependent upon a projection of the past into the future to be useful for anticipating changes. Similarly they suggest a single view of the future (albeit with attached uncertainties). In contrast scenario planning suggests a number of distinctly different alternative futures, each of which are possible. Scenarios focus "less on predicting outcomes and more on understanding the forces that would eventually compel an outcome; less on figures and more on insight" (Wack 1985, 84). They are more concerned with understanding the discontinuities in creating alternative futures by recognizing that the structure of the environment may change.” from Eden and Ackermann 1998

20. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 Importance Certainty Uncertainty SCENARIO PLANNING REGION Scenario Events SCENARIO CONTEXT invariants & strong trends

21. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 An Event Based Scenario source - NIO/SU 1991-2

22. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 POWER in relation to strategy realization INTEREST in the strategy making organization Context Setters or Leaders PlayersSubjects Crowd Stake- Holders ActorsBystanders Unaffected Stakeholder Analysis

23. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 POWER in relation to strategy realization INTEREST in the strategy making organization Context Setters or Leaders PlayersSubjects Crowd Stake- Holders Stakeholder Management ActorsBystanders Unaffected

24. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 Stakeholder Management Issue of dis-aggregation Issue of aggregation Who is involved in devising strategies for stakeholder management –sometimes uncomfortable process manipulation… –internal v external

25. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999 THE PLAYER The Bases of Power stakeholder actions The Bases of Interest interpretation of strategy available sanctions support mechanisms what they see - their “spectacles” their interpretation of your behaviour their view of your role in their aspirations Stakeholder Management

26. Strategic and Systems Thinking for the Public Sector - 29th-31st March 1999