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The impact of population ageing on household structure: evidence from the Czech Republic Pavlína Habartová, Klára Hulíková, Olga Sivková Applied Demographic.

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Presentation on theme: "The impact of population ageing on household structure: evidence from the Czech Republic Pavlína Habartová, Klára Hulíková, Olga Sivková Applied Demographic."— Presentation transcript:

1 The impact of population ageing on household structure: evidence from the Czech Republic Pavlína Habartová, Klára Hulíková, Olga Sivková Applied Demographic Conference, San Antonio, TX, January 8-10, 2014 Czech Statistical Office

2 Structure of the presentation Demographic ageing in the Czech Republic Data from the censuses General trends of development of households in the Czech Republic Population forecast Methodology and results of the forecast of househods and their structure The impact of population ageing on household structure: evidence from the Czech Republic

3 Population ageing Age-structure of the Czech population 31. 12. 2011 Source: Czech Statistical Office, 2013 Less than 15 years: 14.7 % 15–64 years: 69.1 % More than 65 years: 16.2 %

4 Population ageing Age-structure of the Czech population 31.12.2040 Source: Czech Statistical Office, 2013c 15–64 years: 60.7 % More than 65 years: 27.2 % Less than 15 years: 12.1 %

5 Population ageing Life expectancy by sex, Average age, Czech Republic, 1989-2040 Note: to 2012 real data, from 2013 population forecast Source: Czech Statistical Office, 2013, 2013c Forecast

6 Households in Czech census Population census 1961–2001: data according to place of permanent residence – Dwelling household – Housekeeping household – Census household family relationships among household residents Population census 2011: data according place of usual residence – only dwelling and housekeeping households The impact of population ageing on household structure: evidence from the Czech Republic

7 Households by 1961–2011 censuses *) one-couple and lone-parent families without families in households consisting of three or more families Source: Czech Statistical Office, 2013b Census year Housekeeping households One- couple families Lone- parent families One-person households One- couple families Lone- parent families One-person households In thousandsIn % of Housekeeping households 19613035240525051579.28.217.0 19703365248830766973.99.119.9 19803791255732593967.58.624.8 199139842513434109063.110.927.4 200142162334576127655.413.730.3 2011 *) 43752193612142250.114.032.5 The impact of population ageing on household structure: evidence from the Czech Republic

8 Housekeeping and census households in the period 1970–2011, the Czech Republic Note: Census 2011: housekeeping households consisted by 1 census household involve one-person household, multi-person non-family households and one-family household, housekeeping households composed of 2 census household involve in 2011 households consisting of two or more families Source: FSO, 1974, 1982, 1992; CZSO, 2003; CZSO, 2013a

9 Structure of housekeeping households in the period 1970-2011, the Czech Republic Household type19701980199120012011 % Housekeeping households 100.0 of which by type: One-family households 75.172.871.766.561.0 by type of family nucleus: One-couple families 67.364.961.353.647.9 Lone-parent families 7.87.87.97.910.412.913.1 Households consisting of two or more families 3.93.92.12.11.61.61.31.31.61.6 One-person households 19.923.726.330.332.5 Source: FSO, 1974, 1982, 1992; CZSO, 2003; CZSO, 2013a

10 Forecast of selected housekeeping households Based on: – Population census 2011 – Population projection till 2100 Method – Headship rate – Modification of Ediev (2007) Projected housekeeping households by type and size – One-couple families, lone-parent families, one-person household The impact of population ageing on household structure: evidence from the Czech Republic

11 Forecast assumptions Population projection – assumptions Total fertility rateLife expectancy at birth (males/females)Migration balance Year LowMediumHighLowMediumHighLowMediumHigh 2012* 1.45 75.0 / 80.9 10293 2015 1.45 75.6 / 81.475.8 / 81.675.9 / 81.8-996893418864 2030 1.451.501.5278.2 / 83.879.5 / 85.180.6 / 86.122261165921110 2050 1.451.561.6181.1 / 86.283.0 / 88.084.6 / 89.355711438423291 2100 1.451.561.6184.2 / 88.886.6 / 91.184.4 / 92.9103501767125400 Source: Czech Statistical Office, 2013c The impact of population ageing on household structure: evidence from the Czech Republic

12 Population outside housekeeping households by sex and age, Population census 2011, the Czech Republic Source: Czech Statistical Office, 2013a

13 Projection of the number of household Source: Scherbov S.; Ediev, D. 2008

14 Projection of the household size by type The impact of population ageing on household structure: evidence from the Czech Republic

15 The overall number of selected housekeeping households by variants, the Czech Republic, 2011, 2013-40 Note: 2011 real data Source: Authors’ calculation

16 Projected housekeeping households by type and size, the Czech Republic, 2013-2040, medium variant Source: Authors’ calculation One-person households One-couple families without children

17 Conclusion Impact of population ageing on household structure is significant in the Czech Republic The overall number of one-person households, one-couple families and lone-parent families will be most likely higher in 2040 in comparison with the state 2011 in all projected variants – One-person households are the main contributor – Size of one-couple families shrinks Higher relevance of couples without children – Size of lone-parent household also diminishes

18 Sources Czech Statistical Office (CZSO). 2013. Population. Available online: http://www.scitani.cz/csu/redakce.nsf/i/obyvatelstvo_lide http://www.scitani.cz/csu/redakce.nsf/i/obyvatelstvo_lide Czech Statistical Office (CZSO). 2003. Sčítání lidu, domů a bytů k 1. 3. 2001. Obyvatelstvo, domy, byty a domácnosti. Česká republika. Czech Statistical Office (CZSO). 2013a. Sčítání lidu, domů a bytů 2011. Výsledky sčítání. Available online : http://www.czso.cz/sldb2011/redakce.nsf/i/home.http://www.czso.cz/sldb2011/redakce.nsf/i/home Czech Statistical Office (CZSO). 2013b. Czech Demographic Handbook 2012. Available online:.http://www.czso.cz/csu/2013edicniplan.nsf/engpubl/4032-13-eng_n_2013 Czech Statistical Office (CZSO). 2013c. Projekce obyvatelstva České republiky (Population projection 2013). Available online: http://www.czso.cz/csu/2013edicniplan.nsf/publ/4020- 13-n_2013.http://www.czso.cz/csu/2013edicniplan.nsf/publ/4020- 13-n_2013 Ediev, D. 2007. On Projecting the Distribution of Private Households by Size. Vienna Institute of Demography, Working Papers, 4/2007. Federal Statistaical Office (FSO). 1992. Sčítání lidu, domů a bytů k 3. 3. 1991. Obyvatelstvo, domy, byty a domácnosti. Česká republika. Federal Statistaical Office (FSO). 1982. Obyvatelstvo, domy, byty a domácnosti. ČSR. Federal Statistaical Office (FSO). Sčítání lidu, domů a bytů k 1. 12. 1970. Obyvatelstvo, domy a byty. Tabulky za ČSR. Scherbov, S.; Ediev, D. 2008. Probabilistic Household Projections based on an Extension of the Headship Rates Method with an Application to the Case of Russia. IASA. Interim Report IR- 08-002.

19 Thank you for your attention Klara.Hulikova@natur.cuni.cz Pavlina.Habartova@czso.cz Olga.Sivkova@natur.cuni.cz

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