1. HNMS contribution to CONSENS Petroula Louka & Flora Gofa Hellenic National Meteorological Service louka@hnms.grlouka@hnms.gr, fgofa@hnms.grfgofa@hnms.gr

2. 11th COSMO General Meeting HNMS involvement Task 2.1. Test new parameter perturbations, including combination of parameters. –2.1.1 select new parameters to be perturbed, select parameter combinations –2.1.3 analyse the impact with respect to the control Task 2.2. Develop perturbations for the lower boundary fields. –2.2.1 develop techniques for lower boundary fields perturbation.

3. 11th COSMO General Meeting Physics perturbations 2 suites –CSPERT: 16 members of the same initial conditions with different values for selected physics parameters. –New: 16 members of different initial conditions with different combinations of physics perturbations. 3 testing periods of investigation and statistical analysis –Summer 2008 and Spring 2009 with CSPERT suite –May – August 2009 with the new suite The focus of the study is mainly on the continuous parameters (T, U and Td) rather than precipitation.

4. 11th COSMO General Meeting CSPERT suite ECMWF initial conditions

5. 11th COSMO General Meeting 2m Temperature Spring 2009 Summer 2008

6. 11th COSMO General Meeting 10m Wind Summer 2008 Spring 2009

7. 11th COSMO General Meeting 2m Dew point temperature Summer 2008 Spring 2009

8. | T BIAS | T RMSE | Td BIAS | Td RMSE | U BIAS | U RMSE KF ==~ == tur_len=150 === >== > (day) tur_len=1000 ~ ==<=== pat_len=10000 < =(day) > < (day)> = (day)~ = rat_sea=1 >>>= >~ = rat_sea=60 <<>= >~ = crsmin=50 >>>>= > (day) crsmin=200 << =<=== c_lnd=1 = < (day)> (day)>=== c_lnd=10 ><<>> (night)= < (day)= rlam_heat=0.1 > < (day)= > (day)>>== rlam_heat=10 (day)= < (day)>>> <~ = ---+++= Based on Summer case study

9. 11th COSMO General Meeting Remarks from the CSPERT suite The effect of perturbing each physics parameter on improving or worsening the statistical values of the results in comparison to the corresponding default was investigated. The spread of the results is larger for the summer case for temperature and dew point mainly during the hours of intense solar radiation (as expected). It seems that the particular parameter perturbations do not influence greatly the mean horizontal wind apart from a few exceptions. Possibly looking at the vertical wind component would make the effects more apparent.

10. 11th COSMO General Meeting Remarks (cont) For the summer case, looking separately at each parameter perturbation compared to the control run: –rlam_heat (scaling factor of the laminar layer depth): Changing its value affects mainly temperature. This is an important parameter since it defines the layer with non- turbulent characteristics (molecular diffusion effects only). Therefore, the depth of the laminar layer will influence the vertical fluxes from the surface. –rat_sea (ratio of laminar scaling factor for heat over sea): Changing its value affects only temperature, as it has to do with laminar heat flux. –crsmin (minimal stomata resistance): This seems to be an important parameter for all results with its largest value producing better statistics.

11. 11th COSMO General Meeting Remarks (cont) –tur_len (maximal turbulent length scale): Changing its value affects the wind only during daytime. This parameter is used mainly in the calculation of the characteristic length scale for vertical mixing and thus into the calculation of the vertical transport momentum coefficient. –pat_len (length scale of thermal surface patterns): Changing its value affects only temperature. This was expected as this parameter is mainly used in the calculation of the heat flux. –c_lnd (surface area density of the roughness elements over land): affects mainly temperature but also slightly the wind values.

12. 11th COSMO General Meeting First discussion –tur_len (maximal turbulent length scale): This parameter is related to vertical rather than the horizontal transport. It is possible that if the vertical wind component were examined separately the effect would have been more evident.(?) Theoretically, an increased value of tur_len would lead to increasing the coefficient of vertical transport of momentum, which in turn may imply a more turbulent surface layer (mainly due to shear production of turbulent kinetic energy). –pat_len (length scale of thermal surface patterns): As this parameter is directly related to the horizontal sub-grid scales perhaps the value of 10000m that has been chosen for the perturbation (default=500) is too large for the horizontal grid size of the ensemble (=10km, i.e. equal to pat_len). Maybe a value less than 10000m is more appropriate to extract useful information for the sub-grid heat flux. (?)

13. 11th COSMO General Meeting New CONSENS suite Random combination of parameter perturbation and initial model conditions. The results are investigated in a different manner as no control run is available. Reminder: The period is summer!

14. 11th COSMO General Meeting Major discrepancies for T2m

15. 11th COSMO General Meeting Major discrepancies for U10m

16. 11th COSMO General Meeting Major discrepancies for Td2m

17. 11th COSMO General Meeting rlam_heat: Scaling factor of the laminar layer depth Effects of physics perturbations While rlam_heat increases the depth of the laminar layer increases and produces the largest errors especially during the daytime underestimating T (suppresses the exchange of heat from the surface ?).

18. 11th COSMO General Meeting Although there are differences among the members, they do not obtain a clear behaviour. rlam_heat: Scaling factor of the laminar layer depth

19. 11th COSMO General Meeting While rlam_heat increases the depth of the laminar layer increases and produces the largest errors especially during the daytime underestimating largely Td (even greater than T). rlam_heat: Scaling factor of the laminar layer depth

20. 11th COSMO General Meeting rat_sea: Ratio of laminar scaling factor for heat over sea It seems that there is a diurnal pattern here with the largest rat_sea producing less error during daytime than the smaller value, while the opposite occurs during the night hours.

21. 11th COSMO General Meeting It seems that the largest rat_sea produces less error for wind? rat_sea: Ratio of laminar scaling factor for heat over sea

22. 11th COSMO General Meeting It seems that the largest rat_sea largely underestimates Td especially during daytime (opposite than T and U). rat_sea: Ratio of laminar scaling factor for heat over sea

23. 11th COSMO General Meeting crsmin: Minimal stomata resistance It seems that there is a smaller diurnal pattern here with the largest crsmin producing more error during daylight (photosynthesis and evapotranspiration hours), while the opposite occurs during the night hours.

24. 11th COSMO General Meeting crsmin: Minimal stomata resistance Although there are some differences among the members, they do not obtain a clear behaviour.

25. 11th COSMO General Meeting crsmin: Minimal stomata resistance It seems that the largest crsmin produces more error during daylight (photosynthesis and evapotranspiration hours).

26. 11th COSMO General Meeting tur_len: Maximal turbulent length scale The largest value of tur_len using AVN seems to produce larger errors during the daytime.

27. 11th COSMO General Meeting tur_len: Maximal turbulent length scale Not a clear effect although it seems that for the first forecast day the largest value of tur_len using AVN produces larger errors during the daytime.

28. 11th COSMO General Meeting tur_len: Maximal turbulent length scale Not a clear effect.

29. 11th COSMO General Meeting Remarks It is difficult to identify the effect (small or not) of the combined physics perturbations altogether. Some of the members of the new CONSENS suite produce large errors compared to the CSPERT suite. The physical importance of the value of each perturbed parameter is apparent. Based on that it could be suggested –large values of rlam_heat produce large errors (independently of the crsmin and iconv). –rat_sea affects differently the parameters with its largest value producing less error during daytime than its smaller value (for T and U), while for Td its largest value leads to large errors. –the largest crsmin produces more error during daylight (photosynthesis and evapotranspiration hours) for T and Td. –the largest value of tur_len using AVN produces larger errors during the daytime for T and U although the effect is not as clear as the other perturbations (but it is difficult to study w).

30. 11th COSMO General Meeting Suggestions for next steps on physics perturbations Based on HNMS results: The perturbation of rlam_heat, tur_len, crsmin should be further considered although the largest value of rlam_heat producing the worst results should be re-examined. The perturbed values of pat_len should be carefully examined (consider smaller values than 10km?). New physics perturbations? –The dissipation rate for turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) is defined by using a “tuning constant” c ε ( d_heat or d_mom). Obviously this is an important parameter that affects the dissipation rate and therefore the consumption of TKE. Could we “touch” this value?

31. 11th COSMO General Meeting Developing perturbations for the lower boundary Task 2.2.1 techniques AIM Implement a technique for perturbing soil moisture conditions and explore its impacts Reasoning The lack of variability is typically worse near the surface rather than higher in the troposphere. Also soil moisture is of primary importance in determining the partition of energy between surface heat fluxes, thus affecting surface temperature forecasts

32. 11th COSMO General Meeting Soil Perturbation method Based on the method proposed by Sutton and Hamill (2004) Select a period that provides variability in soil moisture e.g. spring Use of data from a land–surface model analysis for the defined period for a few years in order to create some “climatology” Implement the EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function – Principal Component Analysis) to the data in order to generate random perturbations Define the number of perturbations that will be initially used Decide to which member of the CONSENS suite (control or other?) the method will be applied.

33. 11th COSMO General Meeting EOF analysis This analysis will generate random perturbations that will have the same spatial structure as the daily deviations of soil moisture from a running mean climatology. Based on the selected period data, a 30-day period running mean will be calculated. This mean will be subtracted from the daily soil moisture analysis to get daily deviations. Using these deviations to EOF, the perturbations will be calculated and ordered from largest to smallest variability. Where: ε j is the j th perturbation r i is the standard normally distributed random number u i is the i th singular vector σ i is the i th singular values The perturbations will be added to the soil moisture data to create the final perturbed field to be adopted in the ensemble run

34. 11th COSMO General Meeting

36. Based on Spring case study | T BIAS | T RMSE | Td BIAS | Td RMSE | U BIAS | U RMSE KF tur_len=150 tur_len=1000 pat_len=10000 rat_sea=1 rat_sea=60 crsmin=50 crsmin=200 c_lnd=1 c_lnd=10 rlam_heat=0.1 rlam_heat=10 ---+++=

37. 11th COSMO General Meeting 2m Temperature

38. 11th COSMO General Meeting 10m Wind

39. 11th COSMO General Meeting 2m Dew point

40. 11th COSMO General Meeting CSPERT precipitation (deterministic approach)

41. 11th COSMO General Meeting CSPERT precipitation (probabilistic approach) Small sample!

42. Analytical results of CSPERT for summer 2008

43. 11th COSMO General Meeting T2m – Summer 2008 tur_len Default = 500 Maximal turbulent length scale

44. 11th COSMO General Meeting U10m – Summer 2008 tur_len Default = 500 Maximal turbulent length scale

45. 11th COSMO General Meeting Td2m – Summer 2008 tur_len Default = 500 Maximal turbulent length scale

46. 11th COSMO General Meeting T2m – Summer 2008 pat_len Default = 500 Length scale of thermal surface patterns

47. 11th COSMO General Meeting U10m – Summer 2008 pat_len Default = 500 Length scale of thermal surface patterns

48. 11th COSMO General Meeting Td2m – Summer 2008 pat_len Default = 500 Length scale of thermal surface patterns

49. 11th COSMO General Meeting T2m – Summer 2008 rat_sea Default = 20 Ratio of laminar scaling factor for heat over sea

50. 11th COSMO General Meeting U10m – Summer 2008 rat_sea Default = 20 Ratio of laminar scaling factor for heat over sea

51. 11th COSMO General Meeting Td2m – Summer 2008 rat_sea Default = 20 Ratio of laminar scaling factor for heat over sea

52. 11th COSMO General Meeting T2m – Summer 2008 crsmin Default = 150 Minimal stomata resistance

53. 11th COSMO General Meeting U10m – Summer 2008 crsmin Default = 150 Minimal stomata resistance

54. 11th COSMO General Meeting Td2m – Summer 2008 crsmin Default = 150 Minimal stomata resistance

55. 11th COSMO General Meeting T2m – Summer 2008 rlam_heat Default = 1 Scaling factor of the laminar layer depth

56. 11th COSMO General Meeting U10m – Summer 2008 rlam_heat Default = 1 Scaling factor of the laminar layer depth

57. 11th COSMO General Meeting Td2m – Summer 2008 rlam_heat Default = 1 Scaling factor of the laminar layer depth

59. 11th COSMO General Meeting T2m – Summer 2008 c_lnd Default = 2 Surface area density of the roughness elements over land

60. 11th COSMO General Meeting U10m – Summer 2008 c_lnd Default = 2 Surface area density of the roughness elements over land

61. 11th COSMO General Meeting Td2m – Summer 2008 c_lnd Default = 2 Surface area density of the roughness elements over land

62. 11th COSMO General Meeting T2m – Summer 2008 qc0 Default = 0 Cloud water threshold for autoconversion

63. 11th COSMO General Meeting U10m – Summer 2008 qc0 Default = 0 Cloud water threshold for autoconversion

64. 11th COSMO General Meeting Td2m – Summer 2008 qc0 Default = 0 Cloud water threshold for autoconversion

65. 11th COSMO General Meeting T2m – Summer 2008 c_soil Default = 1 Surface area index for evaporating soil

66. 11th COSMO General Meeting U10m – Summer 2008 c_soil Default = 1 Surface area index for evaporating soil

67. 11th COSMO General Meeting Td2m – Summer 2008 c_soil Default = 1 Surface area index for evaporating soil