1. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry Dr. N.P. Ventikos, P.G. Anaxagorou, NTUA

2. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry Targets Targets Basis of Approach – Implemented Methodology Basis of Approach – Implemented Methodology Consequence Analysis – Results Consequence Analysis – Results Expert Judgment Assessment – Examples Expert Judgment Assessment – Examples Proposal of Case Studies (Consequence / Risk) Proposal of Case Studies (Consequence / Risk) Presentation of The Pollution Control Options Presentation of The Pollution Control Options OVERVIEW

3. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry Based on Specific ET StructuresBased on Specific ET Structures Analysis & Exploitation of Answers/Judgment from Group of Experts Regarding the Consequence/Risk Potential of each of the Provided Casualty Scenarios for TankersAnalysis & Exploitation of Answers/Judgment from Group of Experts Regarding the Consequence/Risk Potential of each of the Provided Casualty Scenarios for Tankers Identification of Risk/Pollution Control Options (through Case Studies)Identification of Risk/Pollution Control Options (through Case Studies) TARGETS

4. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry Post Accident AssessmentPost Accident Assessment Questionnaires and ET Structure (per Type of Casualty) was Provided to the Expert GroupQuestionnaires and ET Structure (per Type of Casualty) was Provided to the Expert Group Expert Group JudgmentExpert Group Judgment Assessment of Expert Group Judgment (not Possible through the Concordance Coefficient ‘W’, Annex of MSC 78/19/2)Assessment of Expert Group Judgment (not Possible through the Concordance Coefficient ‘W’, Annex of MSC 78/19/2) Classification and Rule-based Knowledge TheoryClassification and Rule-based Knowledge Theory Consequence-based Analysis and Risk-based Analysis  Rules & Decision TreesConsequence-based Analysis and Risk-based Analysis  Rules & Decision Trees Pollution Control Options (through the Proposal and Survey of Case Studies)Pollution Control Options (through the Proposal and Survey of Case Studies) KEY STEPS OF IMPLEMENTED METHODOLOGY

5. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry Answers from Expert Group ET Scenarios ET Structure ACCIDENT METHODOLOGY INPUTS Event Gates Scenarios/ Endings Experts’ Scoring 1 Frequency & 3 Severity Slots

6. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry PROVIDED SCALES FOR SCORING/VOTING

7. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry Consequence Analysis Critical Events & Simplified Scenarios Rules & Decision Trees Assessment of Expert Judgment & Consensus Mapping (Distribution) of Votes METHODOLOGY STEPS FOR CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS The scope is to identify/simulate what the experts perceived as important in terms of events for giving their consequence/probability ranking and differentiate the practical value of one index to another  this way it can be identified where the experts focused on the structure of the ET and how they actually proceeded in the scoring of the numerous provided scenarios per type of casualty

8. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry MAPPING OF VOTES – CONSEQUENCE

9. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry MAPPING OF VOTES

10. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry EXPERT JUGDMENT – DETAILED

11. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry High Consequence Scenarios Present a Significant Experts’ Consensus. In Particular 67% of these Scenarios Received High Consequence Ranking and Only 1% Received Scores Ranging from Low to High Consequence ASSESSMENT OF EXPERT JUDGMENT & CONSENSUS

12. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry Only 17% of High Consequence Scenarios Received the Minimum Consensus (50%) of the Involved Experts ASSESSMENT OF EXPERT JUDGMENT & CONSENSUS

13. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry Rule 0/1: Breach in hull = no Hard Aground = no -> class 1 [0.833] Rule 0/2: Breach in hull = no Hard Aground = yes -> class 2 [0.833] Rule 0/3: Breach in hull = yes Breach in inner hull = no Hard Aground = no Ship breaks into piece = no -> class 2 [0.600] Rule 0/4: Breach in hull = yes Breach in inner hull = no Hard Aground = yes Ship breaks into piece = no -> class 3 [0.875] Rule 0/5: Breach in inner hull = yes Hard Aground = no Ship sinks without breaking into pieces = no Ship breaks into piece = no -> class 3 [0.750] Rule 0/6: Breach in hull = yes Breach in inner hull = na Hard Aground = no Ship sinks without breaking into pieces = no Ship breaks into piece = no -> class 3 [0.714] Rules: Rule 0/7: Breach in hull = yes Breach in inner hull = na Hard Aground = yes -> class 4 [0.909] Rule 0/8: Ship breaks into piece = yes -> class 4 [0.909] Rule 0/9: Breach in inner hull = yes Hard Aground = yes -> class 4 [0.889] Rule 0/10: Ship sinks without breaking into pieces = yes -> class 4 [0.833] Decision tree: Breach in hull = no: :...Hard Aground = yes: 2 (4) : Hard Aground = no: 1 (4) Breach in hull = yes: :...Ship breaks into piece = yes: 4 (20/1) Ship breaks into piece = no: :...Breach in inner hull = no: :...Hard Aground = yes: 3 (6) : Hard Aground = no: 2 (8/3) Breach in inner hull = yes: :...Ship sinks without breaking into pieces = yes: 4 (6) : Ship sinks without breaking into pieces = no: : :...Hard Aground = yes: 4 (5) : Hard Aground = no: 3 (10/2) Breach in inner hull = na: :...Hard Aground = yes: 4 (7) Hard Aground = no: :...Ship sinks without breaking into pieces = yes: 4 (2) Ship sinks without breaking into pieces = no: 3 (5/1) GROUNDING : RULES & DECISION TREES

14. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry According to the Experts Scoring and the Results From the Methodology the High Consequence Scenarios Incorporate One of the Following Simplified Scenarios Given a Grounding: Single Hull Tanker that Suffered a Breach in Hull and Run Hard Aground or Double Hull Tanker that Suffered a Breach in Inner Hull and Run Hard Aground or Single or Double Hull Tankers that Break into Pieces or Single or Double Hull Tankers that Sink Without Breaking into Pieces GROUNDING – CONSEQUENCE: SIMPLIFIED RESULTS

15. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry THE PROPOSED CASE STUDIES 1 BRAER SEA EMPRESS BRAER (SHETLANT UK, 1993), SEA EMPRESS (UK, 1996) Grounding (2) 2 ATLANTIC EMPRESS ATLANTIC EMPRESS (TOBAGO, 1979)Collision 3 ERIKA ( PRESTIGE ERIKA (UK, 1999), PRESTIGE (SPAIN, 2002)Non Acc. Str. Failure (2) 4 MEGA BORG MEGA BORG (GALVESTONE, 1990)Fire 5 ABT SUMMER ABT SUMMER (ANGOLA, 1991)Explosion 6 CATJA CATJA (FRANCE, LE HAVRE PORT, 1995)Contact

16. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry Experts’ Voting Distribution for Collision Three experts gave identical distribution (#1, #6, #8) with a great concentration around the high consequence scenarios. One of them (#7) has a more ‘balanced’ opinion Experts’ Voting Distribution for Fire One of the experts (#7) has completely different scoring distribution comparing to the others. Identical distributions were given again by #1, #6 and #8 and by #3 and #5 accordingly Experts’ Voting Distribution for Non Accidental Structural Failure In the case of non accidental structural failure only 3 out of 9 experts assessed the scenarios. Their scorings provide similar distributions for high consequence scenarios COMMENTS ON EXPERT JUDGMENT

17. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry Experts’ Detailed Voting Distribution for High Consequence Scenarios in the Case of Collision Experts’ Detailed Voting Distribution for High Consequence Scenarios in the Case of Collision The high consequence scenarios present a significant expert consensus. In particular 71% of these scenarios received high consequence ranking Experts’ Detailed Voting Distribution for High Consequence Scenarios in the Case of Structural Failure Experts’ Detailed Voting Distribution for High Consequence Scenarios in the Case of Structural Failure In this case the high consequence scenarios present a total (100%) expert consensus COMMENTS ON EXPERT JUDGMENT

18. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry 6 MAIN PCO CATEGORIES – 19 NEW PCOs Procedures for Emergency Response (Place Of Refuge) – 5 PCOs Procedures for Emergency Response (Place Of Refuge) – 5 PCOs Tug Assistance – 3 PCOs Tug Assistance – 3 PCOs Tanker Design and Associated Regulations – 1 PCO Tanker Design and Associated Regulations – 1 PCO Systems Onboard – 5 PCOs Systems Onboard – 5 PCOs Systems for Pollution Control and Mitigation – 3 PCOs Systems for Pollution Control and Mitigation – 3 PCOs Human Factor – Training – 2 PCOs Human Factor – Training – 2 PCOs THE POLLUTION CONTROL OPTIONS

19. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry PCO 18: PCO 18: Develop emergency preparedness through suitable training and awareness as part of the Safety Management System of ISM (all types of events) PCO 19: PCO 19: Training sessions should be dedicated to emergency procedures and in particular, there should be focus on firefighting methods and response methods in case of explosions (all types of events) PCO 15: PCO 15: Consider the fitting of system for pollution control and mitigation. In particular, systems which facilitate the transshipment of oil for sunk and upturned ships. Assess the effectiveness of fitting systems such as Fast Oil Recovery systems for different situations (all types of events, ONBOARD) PCO 16: PCO 16: Availability of systems for receiving significant quantities of oil without the need of a lightering tanker in critical location or directly on tankers (all types of events, ONBOARD) PCO 17: PCO 17: Availability of systems onboard the tankers for the containment of oil spilled such as booms or more innovative systems, such as HARDOIL (all types of events, ONBOARD) HUMAN FACTOR – TRAINING SYSTEMS FOR POLLUTION CONTROL AND MITIGATION

20. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry Experts Population (# of Experts that Assessed the Scenarios)Experts Population (# of Experts that Assessed the Scenarios) Experts Mixture (Different Professions & Experience)Experts Mixture (Different Professions & Experience) Forms/Questionnaires Provided – Time DedicatedForms/Questionnaires Provided – Time Dedicated Cooperation Between ExpertsCooperation Between Experts The Focus of the Experts (Which are the Key Events that Attract Their Attention?)The Focus of the Experts (Which are the Key Events that Attract Their Attention?) Measurable and Quantifiable Scales for ScoringMeasurable and Quantifiable Scales for Scoring RankingRanking Difficulty in Assessing the Outcome from the Expert Group JudgmentDifficulty in Assessing the Outcome from the Expert Group Judgment CONCLUSIONS FROM EXPERT VOTING

21. INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MARINE OIL POLLUTION CONTROL - ATHENS, GREECE 09, June 2006 POP&C – POLLUTION PREVENTION & CONTROL Risk/Pollution Reduction and Expert Group Judgment in the Maritime Industry Difficult Puzzle!! EXPERT GROUP JUDGMENT IN THE MARITIME INDUSTRY