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2010 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast Chris Kunstadter Senior Vice President XL Insurance Cover art by John Sloan/FAA 19 May.

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Presentation on theme: "2010 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast Chris Kunstadter Senior Vice President XL Insurance Cover art by John Sloan/FAA 19 May."— Presentation transcript:

1 2010 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast Chris Kunstadter Senior Vice President XL Insurance chris.kunstadter@xlgroup.com Cover art by John Sloan/FAA 19 May 2010

2 2010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/19/2010 2 Agenda Membership and Methodology Statistics Market Assessment and Trends Summary

3 2010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/19/2010 3 Working Group Members Kevin Reyes (2010 GSO Forecast Chair) Boeing John SloanFAA AST Ken DavidianFAA AST Lisa HagueAerospace Corp. Jeanne BeesleyBoeing Jozsef LoreBoeing Deborah Facktor LeporeDFL Space David KeslowOrbital Peter StierSea Launch Tom MonroeSpace Systems/Loral Alan KeisnerSpaceX Jennifer MicelliTecolote Research Veronica JohnsonUnited Launch Alliance Chris KunstadterXL Insurance

4 2010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/19/2010 4 Forecast Methodology Purpose  To determine the GSO satellite launch market addressable by commercial launch vehicles under the FAA’s licensing regime and by the US launch industry in general Information requested of ~90 satellite operators, satellite manufacturers and launch providers,  14 companies responded in 2010 (21 in 2009; 29 in 2008) Disappointing participation trend –Many satellite procurements in process Individual and comprehensive responses International competitive procurements only

5 2010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/19/2010 5 Forecast Methodology (cont’d) Questionnaire on factors affecting satellite procurement plans  11 satellite operators responded in 2010 (13 in 2009; 17 in 2008) 5 new responders in 2010 3 operators responded in both 2009 and 2010 Sort satellites by mass categories  Small< 2,500 kg  Medium2,500 to 4,200 kg  Large4,200 to 5,400 kg  Extra Large> 5,400 kg Determine satellite demand by launch vehicle  Near-term manifest (2010-2012)  Long-term forecast (2013-2019)

6 2010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/19/2010 6 Forecast Sensitivities Numerous factors impact launch forecast  Satellite and launch vehicle-related technical issues  Scheduling (dual manifesting / range availability / launch site weather)  New launch vehicles  Business planning / financing  Regulatory / licensing issues  Hosted payloads  ITAR-free satellites Realization factor assesses previous forecasts  Variation of historical actual satellites / launches vs. forecasted demand over 5-year rolling period  Realization factor applied to near-term forecast of future activity

7 2010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/19/2010 7 2010 Demand Forecast Summary 2010 forecast essentially unchanged from 2009 forecast Average 20.7 satellites per year Average 15.7 launches per year

8 2010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/19/2010 8 Split Of Satellites By Launch Vehicle - 2010 Ariane 11 Satellites (6 LVs) Proton 8 Satellites (8 LVs) Soyuz 1 Satellite (1 LV)

9 2010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/19/2010 9 Realization Factor

10 2010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/19/2010 10 Mass Category Forecast

11 2010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/19/2010 11 Dual Launch Forecast

12 2010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/19/2010 12 2009-2010 Forecast Comparison Satellite class 2009 Forecast (2009-2018) 2010 Forecast (2010-2019) Small17 Medium7469 Large5755 Extra Large6066 Total satellites208207 Total launches157

13 2010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/19/2010 13 Comparison of Last 10 Years’ Forecasts Last four reports show consistent results Forecast:

14 2010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/19/2010 14 Satellite Operator Market Assessment

15 2010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/19/2010 15 Forecast Trends Near term (Years 1 to 3)  Satellites – stable  Launch demand – slight increase in 2011 reflecting lower pace in 2010 Natural “bow wave”  Satellite mass – some redistribution, but generally stable  Transponders per satellite – moderate decrease Long term (Years 4 to 10)  Satellites – consistent with history (~20 satellites/year)  Launch demand – consistent with history (~15 launches/year) Natural decrease over time with lack of information

16 2010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/19/2010 16 Forecast Summary Ten-year projected average annual demand of 20.7 satellites on 15.7 launches is stable, and consistent with prior years Global economic recovery provides encouraging sign of continued stable market New markets and new applications continue to emerge Forecast methodology is robust, but need to improve responsiveness from market GSO forecast is a useful tool and a respected source of market information

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