1. Defence Research and Development Canada Recherche et développement pour la défense Canada Canada QUANTITATIVE MODELS FOR PERFORMANCE AND COST OF COMMAND, CONTROL, COMMUNICATIONS, COMPUTERS AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS Ivan Taylor and Roman Petryk Defence R&D Canada Centre for Operational Research and Analysis 613 992-4500 Roman.petryk@drdc-rddc.gc.ca

2. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada OUTLINE Background –Capability Engineering –Complex Scenario Capability Engineering Decision Framework –Performance, Cost, Schedule, Risk Models Putting it all together - Conclusions

3. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada BACKGROUND Defence R&D Canada Trial –‘Best Practices in Systems Engineering’ Domestic Humanitarian Aid/Disaster Relief Scenarios –Major Canadian City Canadian Forces to support Command and Control –Liaison with Law Enforcement Agencies

4. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada BACKGROUND Command, control, communications, computers and information a capability gap Goal of project to come up with viable options to fill the gap Viability defined by performance, cost, schedule and risk

5. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Capability Engineering Team Project Leader Operational subject matter experts Technological subject matter experts Operational research analysts Technological support team

6. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada TECHNOLOGICAL OPTIONS Operational and technological subject matter experts –Three technological options The Status Quo Option 1 - A Collaborative Information Environment Option 2 - A Collaborative Information Environment combined with a Secure Broadband Wireless Network

7. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada Capability Engineering Decision Framework The Operational Research analysts were asked to evaluate these options By adding skilled personnel, construct Force Development Options Quantitative models for performance, cost, schedule and risk Based on data provided by operational subject matter experts on capability engineering team

8. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada PERFORMANCE MODEL Focus on decision quality in Operational Headquarters Based on time and effort available to –Orient, evaluate, decide and implement decisions Combine orient and implement functions into communication subtask Combine evaluate and decide functions into decision support subtask

9. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada COMMUNICATION FUNCTION Data collected and disseminated is computed as Where –P c is the personnel assigned to the task –t is the task time constraint in hours –T c is the person hours required to complete the task

10. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada DECISION SUPPORT FUNCTION Data processed and decision support cycles are computed as Where –P s is the personnel assigned to the task –t is the task time constraint in hours –T s is the person hours required to complete the task

11. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada DECISION QUALITY FIGURE OF MERIT We wanted a Figure of Merit function for decision quality Gives values between (0,1) Demonstrates diminishing returns Such that when personnel allocations equal to personnel requirements Q=0.5 We chose the lognormal function

12. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada SINGLE TASK SENSITIVITY RESULTS Sensitivity Variables 12345 Task Hours (t)0.5000.9170.9860.9970.999 Collection Personnel (P c ) 0.8640.9630.9860.9930.996 Processing Personnel (Ps) 0.8640.9630.9860.9930.996 Collection Hours Required (Tc) 0.9990.9950.9860.9720.954 Processing Hours Required (Ts) 0.9990.9950.9860.9720.954

13. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada LIAISON WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES Seven tasks –Establish and maintain contact with law enforcement agencies –Initiate flow of information for the disaster zone –Assist with coordinating employment of civil mobility resources –Assist in crowd control –Conduct or assist with humanitarian aid/disaster relief distribution –Assist with policing operations as required and provide assistance to minimize looting –Handover resources and responsibilities to civilian authority at closure

14. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada LIAISON WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES Operational subject matter experts –Estimated the hours required to Collect and disseminate data Process information and provide decision support –For each of these tasks –For each of the technological options

15. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada PERFORMANCE RESULTS* PersonnelStatus QuoOption 1Option 2 700.680.850.90 650.810.88 600.770.84 550.710.80 500.74 460.69 * We can improve performance and reduce personnel at the same time

16. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada PERFORMANCE/PERSONNEL TRADEROFFS

17. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada COST MODEL Cost model consists of –Capital Cost –Maintenance Cost –Personnel Cost We will compute the average annual cost of ownership for each option

18. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada AMORTIZED CAPITAL COST

19. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada EXPONENTIALLY INCREASING MAINTENANCE COSTS

20. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada AVERAGE ANNUAL COST OF OWNERSHIP

21. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada AVERAGE ANNUAL COST OF OWNERSHIP Costs ($M/yr) Status QuoOption 1Option 2 Capital0.681.402.12 Maintenance0.551.081.63 Personnel*9.10 Average Annual Total 10.311.612.8 *The average annual cost is dominated by the personnel costs

22. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada PERFORMANCE / COST TRADEOFFS OptionNumber of Personnel Cost ($M/yr) Performance (FoM) Status Quo 7010.30.68 Option 17011.60.85 6010.30.77 539.40.69 Option 27012.80.90 6011.50.84 5010.20.74 469.70.69

23. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada PERFORMANCE/COST TRADEOFFS

24. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada SCHEDULE AND RISK MODELS Project Management Factors –Schedule defined as years to implement –Not deployment time –Risk defined as likelihood of serious problems meeting performance, cost, schedule targets –Not operational risk Based on Technological Readiness Level

25. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada SCHEDULE MODEL* *Based on lowest Technology Readiness Level in Option

26. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada RISK MODEL* *Based on reliability model using series connections

27. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER OptionStatus Quo Option 1Option 2 Number of Personnel 70 605370605046 Performance (FoM) 0.680.850.770.690.900.840.740.69 Cost ($M/yr) 10.311.610.39.412.811.510.29.7 Schedule (yrs) 02229999 Risk (FoM) 00.19 0.73

28. Defence R&D Canada R & D pour la défense Canada CONCLUSIONS Demonstrated the Capability Engineering Process for a Complex Scenario Produced Quantitative Capability Engineering Decision Framework Models –Performance, Cost, Schedule and Risk Produced Force Development Options for Command, Control, Communications, Computers and Information systems Demonstrated that Performance can be improved and Costs reduced within limited Schedule and with acceptable Risk

29. Defence Research and Development Canada Recherche et développement pour la défense Canada Canada QUESTIONS Roman Petryk Defence R&D Canada Centre for Operational Research and Analysis 613 992-4500 Roman.petryk@drdc-rddc.gc.ca