1. Probability – the likelihood that an event will occur. Probability is usually expressed as a real number from 0 to 1. The probability of an impossible event is 0. The probability of a certain event is 1.

2. Experimental Probability – Probability that is determined by collecting data from oberservations P(event) = P(event) = # of times the event occurs # of trials

3. Example of Experimental Probability… A baseball player got a hit 21 times in 60 at-bats. Find the experimental probability of his getting a hit. 2160 = 720

4. Theoretical Probability – Probability based on a sample space that has equally likely outcomes. P(event) = P(event) = Favorable outcomes Possible outcomes Sample Space – All possible outcomes.

5. Example of Theoretical Probability… Find the theoretical probability of getting an even number when you roll a number cube. 36 = 12

6. Examples… You select a number at random from the sample space {1,2,3,4,5}. 15 45 35 Find P(2). Find P(<5). Find P(prime). Answer Is this an example of theoretical or experimental probability?

7. Examples… In a class of 19 students, 10 study Spanish, 7 study French, and 2 study both Spanish and French. One student is picked at random. 919 0 219 Find P(neither). Find P(both). Find P(French). Answer Is this an example of theoretical or experimental probability?

8. Examples… In a telephone survey of 150 households, 75 respondents answered “Yes” to a particular question, 50 answered “No”, and 25 were “Not Sure”. 75150 = 12 Find P(Yes). Find P(not Not Sure). 125150 = 56 Answer Is this an example of theoretical or experimental probability?

9. Examples… A wallet contains four bills with denominations of $1, $5, $10, and $20. You choose two of the four bills from the wallet at random and add the dollar amounts. What is the sample space. 11 15 110 120 51 55 510 520 101 5 20 1 5 10 20 2 6 11 21 10 15 25 20 30 40

10. A wallet contains four bills with denominations of $1, $5, $10, and $20. You choose two of the four bills from the wallet at random and add the dollar amounts. 0 310 Find P($50). Find P(at least $25). Answer $2 $6 $11 $21 $10 $15 $25 $20 $30 $40

11. Probability of Multiple Events Dependent Events- when the outcome of one event affects the outcome of a second event. Independent Events- when the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of a second event.

12. Let’s Classify Events Roll a number cube. Then toss a coin. Pick a flower from a garden. Then pick another flower from the same garden. Dependent Independent

13. Probability of A and B– If A and B are independent, then P(A and B) = P(A)  P(B) Example… A jar contains 6 blue marbles and 8 yellow marbles. Find the probability of selecting a yellow marble and then tossing a coin and getting tails. Independent P(yellow and tails) = P(yellow)  P(tails) P(yellow and tails) =  8 14 1212 P(yellow and tails) = 2727

14. A dresser drawer contains one pair of socks with each of the following colors: blue, brown, red, white and black. Each pair is folded together in a matching set. You reach into the sock drawer and choose a pair of socks without looking. You replace this pair and then choose another pair of socks. What is the probability that you will choose the red pair of socks both times? 1 25

15. A coin is tossed and a single 6- sided die is rolled. Find the probability of landing on the head side of the coin and rolling a 3 on the die. 1 12

16. Mutually Exclusive Events- when two events cannot happen at the same time. (they have no outcomes in common).

17. Non-mutually Exclusive Events- when two events can happen at the same time. (they have one or more outcomes in common).

18. Mutually Exclusive or Not… A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling an odd number or an even number? A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a 5 or an odd number? Mutually exclusive…they cannot occur at the same time. Not mutually exclusive…they can occur at the same time.

19. Your turn… Is the following scenario mutually exclusive? A single card is chosen at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards. What is the probability of choosing a 5 or a king? Yes Answer

20. Your turn… Is the following scenario mutually exclusive? A single card is chosen at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards. What is the probability of choosing a club or a king? No Answer

21. Your turn… Is the following scenario mutually exclusive? A single letter is chosen at random from the word SCHOOL. What is the probability of choosing an S or an O? Yes Answer

22. Determining Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events When two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B will occur is the sum of the probability of each event. P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

23. Determining Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events A glass jar contains 1 red, 3 green, 2 blue, and 4 yellow marbles. If a single marble is chosen at random from the jar, what is the probability that it is yellow or green? P(Yellow or Green) = P(Yellow) + P(Green) P(Yellow or Green) = + 4 10 3 10 P(Yellow or Green) = 7 10

24. Determining Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a 2 or a 5? P(2 or 5) = P(2) + P(5) P(2 or 5) = + 1616 1616 P(2 or 5) = 1313

25. 1212 Determining Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green, and red. What is the probability of landing on red or blue after spinning this spinner? Answer

26. Determining Probability of Non- Mutually Exclusive Events When two events, A and B, are non- mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B will occur is: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

27. In a math class of 30 students, 17 are boys and 13 are girls. On a unit test, 4 boys and 5 girls made an A grade. If a student is chosen at random from the class, what is the probability of choosing a girl or an A student? Determining Probability of Non- Mutually Exclusive Events P(girl or A student) = P(girl) + P(A) - P(girl and A) P(girl or A student) = + - 13 30 9 30 5 30 17 30 P(girl or A student) =

28. .26 On New Year's Eve, the probability of a person having a car accident is 0.09. The probability of a person driving while intoxicated is 0.32 and probability of a person having a car accident while intoxicated is 0.15. What is the probability of a person driving while intoxicated or having a car accident? Determining Probability of Non- Mutually Exclusive Events Answer

29. Dependent Probability When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of both occurring is: P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B|A) In a shipment of 20 computers, 3 are defective. Three computers are randomly selected and tested. What is the probability that all three are defective if the first and second ones are not replaced after being tested?

30. Dependent Probability Mr. Burger needs two students to help him with a science demonstration for his class of 18 girls and 12 boys. He randomly chooses one student who comes to the front of the room. He then chooses a second student from those still seated. What is the probability that both students chosen are girls? P(student 1 and student 2) = P(1) · P(2|1) P(student 1 and student 2) = · 17 29 18 30 P(student 1 and student 2) = 306 870

31. Dependent Probability In a shipment of 20 computers, 3 are defective. Three computers are randomly selected and tested. What is the probability that all three are defective if the first and second ones are not replaced after being tested? 6 Answer