1. Jan.Hoffmann@UNCTAD.org Geneva, May 2007. The demand and supply of international transport services: The relationships between trade, transport costs and effective access to global markets

2. Transport costs Trade Volumes TransportServices

3. Lower Transport Costs -> More trade -> Economies of scale -> Lower Transport Costs

4. More income to finance trade facilitation -> Better trade facilitation -> More Trade -> More income to finance trade facilitation

5. More trade -> More shipping supply -> More competition -> lower freights -> More trade

6. The challenge: Avoid a vicious circle, where high transport costs and low service levels discourage trade, which will further endear transport and reduce connectivity… Instead: Initiate a virtuous circle

7. 1) Transport Costs 2) Connectivity 3) Trade

8. 1) Transport Costs

9. Transport costs Trade Volumes TransportServices ?

10. Transaction costs Source: World Bank, GEP 2002 International transport costs are usually higher than Customs Duties in the destination country

11. Global trade merchandise and services billion USD % growth 2005 2000-05 Source: WTO

12. What explains the differences? UNCTAD RMT 2006

13. Freight as % of goods value: Changes over time and by product UNCTAD, Review of Maritime Transport

14. Higher transport costs in land-locked countries

15. Distance Doubling the distance leads to a increase of maritime transport costs (incl. insurance) by about 15-20% … averages, empirical data e.g. ECLAC, FAL 191

16. Freight rates and Distance in the Caribbean, July 2006 UNCTAD Transport Newsletter, 1st Quarter 2007

17. Dependency on Transit Trade Study on US exports: 1000 km by sea increase freight by 4% 1000 km by land increase freight by 30% Being landlocked increases freight by 50% Limao and Venables

18. Economies of Scale moving 10 000 tons instead of 100 (in one transaction) reduces unit costs by around 40 to 50 % (maritime)

19. Imbalances CI-Online February 2007

20. Imbalances UNCTAD, RMT 2006 In West Africa, which freight rates would you expect to be higher: Those for imports, or Those for exports ?

21. Imbalances In China, which freight rates would you expect to be higher: Those for imports, or Those for exports ?

22. Imbalances In the Caribbean, which freight rates would you expect to be higher: Those for imports, or Those for exports ?

23. Merchandize value Increase the value by 1% implies an increase of transport and insurance costs by around 0.36%

24. Competition with land transport If countries are neighbours, with paved roads, maritime transport costs can be around 10% lower Fotos: Jan Hoffmann

25. Freight rate per container in the Caribbean (July 2006)

26. Dependent variable: maritime transport costs per tonne of containerizable cargo Better port infrastructure reduces maritime transport costs

27. Dependent variable: maritime transport costs per tonne of containerizable cargo Better (perceived)port efficiency reduces maritime transport costs Better (perceived) port efficiency reduces maritime transport costs

28. Dependent variable: maritime transport costs per tonne of containerizable cargo Better general transport infrastructure does NOT reduce maritime transport costs

29. Dependent variable: maritime transport costs per tonne of containerizable cargo Port privatization in the EXPORTING country reduces maritime transport costs

30. Dependent variable: maritime transport costs per tonne of containerizable cargo Trade facilitation in the IMPORTING country reduces maritime transport costs

31. Dependent variable: maritime transport costs per tonne of containerizable cargo Better connectivity between ports/ more competition among carriers reduces maritime transport costs

32. To sum up: Differences in maritime freights depend on… Distances Type & value of goods Imbalances Competition Economies of scale Port characteristics

33. To sum up: Differences in land freights depend on… Distances Type & value of goods Imbalances Competition Economies of scale Infrastructure Border crossings

34. Changes over time Clarkson Research Studies April 2007

35. 2) Connectivity

36. Port moves (containerized trade) Million TEUs DVB/ Drewry

37. TradeTrade grows faster than GDP developing countriesSouth-South and regional trade of developing countries grows even faster than trade in general Containerized tradeContainerized trade of developing countries grows even faster than trade of developing countries in general Containerized port trafficContainerized port traffic grows even faster than containerized trade…

38. Containerization of trade, and access to containerized transport services are important determinants of countries’ trade competitiveness How can we measure this?

39. “Maritime connectivity” An indicator for the supply of liner shipping services (containerized trade) Ships Capacity to transport containers (TEU) Shipping companies Services Maximum ship sizes

40. Benefits of a high connectivity 1.More choice for the user (importers and exporters) 2.Lower transport costs for the user (importers and exporters) 3.Direct income for the port (private operator, port authority) 4.Indirect income if value added services can be sold

41. “Connectivity” 1)Per country – in a “point” 2)Per route – between pairs of countries

42. Deployment of TEU (= total vessel capacity) 5068909

43. The UNCTAD “LSCI”

44. Going up TEU deployment+ 14% Maximum vessel size+ 18% Average vessel size+ 11% (change of country average 2004-2006)

45. Going down Number of companies- 6.2% (change of country average 2004-2006)

46. We have reached a peak Until very recently: In spite of the (global) process of concentration, the number of companies providing (local) services increased due to the expansion of global players into (so far) new markets

47. We have reached a peak Today: As global players are (now) covering all regions of the world, mergers among them (start to) lead to a reduction of competition on individual routes.

48. Connectivity per route Top 25 routes (out of 13041 ) June 2006

50. Transport costs Trade Volumes TransportServices ?

51. Case study Caribbean 189 routes About half served by direct liner shipping services Examples: –Costa Rica – Colombia: 14 companies, 50 container ships, total capacity 61000 TEU; largest vessel 2500 TEU –Costa Rica – Jamaica: 5 companies/ 16 ships/ 17,400 TEU/ 2105 TEU maximum size –Costa Rica – Guyana: no direct services UNCTAD Transport Newsletter, Third Quarter, 2006

52. Case study Caribbean Determinants of connectivity Trade volumes: (+) Distance: (-) GDP per capita in exporting country (+) Port infrastructure (+)

53. 3) Trade

54. Transport costs Trade Volumes TransportServices ?

55. Example: You want to buy a car “made in Mexico”. Today: is its transport from Mexico to Cairo more or less expensive than 20 years ago? Globalization and international transport

56. Less expensive BUT: You pay MORE for “transport” then 20 years ago. Why?

58. Case study Caribbean Most Central American and Caribbean countries trade very little with each other. Examples: –less than 0.001 per cent of Guatemala’s exports in manufactured goods are destined for Surinam, –0.24 per cent for Jamaica, –1 per cent for the Dominican Republic, and –around 8 per cent for Costa Rica. What are the main explanations for such differences?

59. Case study Caribbean: Gravity model – what about distance? Distance / trade: negative correlation (as expected) But: the parameter for distance is not statistically significant if other variables are incorporated that capture the supply of shipping services and transport costs. Instead of distance: –number of liner shipping companies that provide direct services between a pair of countries. –Existence of direct liner shipping services. –Increase of the freight rate per TEU (twenty foot equivalent unit) by 1000 USD: Reduction of the share of country A’s exports to country B of almost half a percentage point.

60. Jan.Hoffmann@UNCTAD.org Geneva, May 2007. Shipping Costs, Connectivity, and the Geography of Trade