1. The Global Climate Change Forum An Economic and Business Perspective Global Energy Services

2. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 2 Can You Weather the Storm? Global climate change is one of the major issues of our time An Economics and Business Perspective 2Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc.  Understand the Impact on your Supply Chain  Understand the Impact on your Customers  Influence the Public Policy Debate and Anticipate Regulatory Changes  Position Your Company or Enterprise  Identify Opportunities and Avoid Risks

3. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 3 The Global Climate Change Forum Interactive Workshops & Meetings In-depth Sector Studies Covering Autos, Metals, Utilities, etc. 3Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. Quarterly Reports and Issue Summaries A new service designed to provide the most complete view of the economic and political factors shaping the Global Climate Change debate

4. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 4 Global Climate Change Will Affect Everyone

5. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 5 The Automobile Industry Copyright 2005, Global Insight 5  Future design of vehicle drive trains  Role and potential for hybrids  Role and potential for hydrogen and fuel cells  Impacts of C0 2 and other GHG emission controls  Impacts on OEMs and component providers  Economic impacts on other industries and the overall economy 5Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc.

6. 6 The Metals Sector 6Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc.  Mitigation options and costs on metals extraction and production  Mitigation options and costs on electricity and energy supply  Long-term technology changes in metals production  Substitution of other materials (e.g. plastics, etc.)  Economic impacts on other industries and the economy

7. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 7 The Electric Utility Sector Copyright 2005, Global Insight 7  Implications for fuel choice (oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, renewables)  Role of new technologies for reducing GHG emission  Application, costs, and effectiveness of clean coal technologies  Application, costs, and effectiveness of carbon captures and sequestration  Economic impacts on other industries and the economy 7Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc.

8. 8 The Correlation Between Emissions and Concentrations is Clear … 290 300 310 320 330 340 350 360 370 380 18801886189218981904 19101916 1922 192819341940194619521958196419701976 19821988 1994 2000 ppm 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 mtonnes HawaiiAntarctic Ice CoresCarbon Emissions

9. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 9 … But Causation Remains Controversial The link between atmospheric concentrations and climate change is still controversial -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1400 145015001550 160016501700175018001850 190019502000 Time Relative Temperature Mann et al McIntyre & McKitrick

10. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 10 CO 2 Is Not the Only Problem Source: Dr. James Hansen, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Methane and Soot Are Major “Forcing” Pollutants As Well

11. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 11 The Problem is Not Intractable Viable Options for Reducing Carbon Emissions Based on: S. Pacala and R. Socolow, “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem, with Technologies Available Today,” Science, 305, August, 2004, pp 968-972

12. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 12 Examples of Mitigation Options by Sector

13. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 13 Transition Targets Must be Established…  A declining schedule of carbon dioxide emissions  An increasing Carbon Dioxide tax  An increasing schedule of auto efficiency standards  An increasing schedule of appliance and building efficiency standards Initial inaction will prevent the attainment of longer term goals at reasonable costs 13Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc.

14. 14 Cost Effectiveness Curves Over Time Significant reductions can be achieved in the long run at reasonable costs, but not in the short run. Steps must be taken now to achieve these long-term reductions.

15. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 15 The Global Climate Change Forum 15Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc.  Executive Summaries and Assessments  Quarterly Executive-Style Reports  Signpost Updates and Issue Alerts  Annual Forum Meeting with Special Guest Speakers  Web-based Discussions  Economic, Policy, and Political Focus  In-depth Sector Analyses  Topics Prioritized by Group  Technical and Economic Analysis  Cost-Effectiveness Curves  Industry and Macroeconomic Analysis  Interactive Workshops  Four Sectors per Year

16. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 16 In-Depth Special Sector Coverage 16  Automobile & Truck Transportation  Airline Industry  Metals and Mining  Electricity Utilities  Energy: Oil and Gas  Energy: Nuclear Power  Agriculture  Abatement Options  Forecast Products and Paper  Consumer Goods  Global Construction *Topics will be prioritized by Forum participants Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc.

17. 17 The Project Team

18. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 18 2004-2005 – Multiple studies on the Impact of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme on Participating Industries 2003 – The Economic Impact on Italy of Implementing the Kyoto Protocol 2002 – The Economic Impact of Greenhouse Gas Reductions on Selected EU Countries 2000 – Global Warming: Capital Stock Constraints on Meeting Near-term Targets 1999 – The Kyoto Protocol: Can Annex B Countries Meet Their Commitments? 1998 – The Impact of Meeting the Kyoto Protocol on Energy Marketing and the Economy 1998 – Global Warming: The High Cost of the Kyoto Protocol National and State Impacts 1997 - Global Warming: The Economic Cost of Early Action Drawing from Years of Experience

19. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 19 Global Insight’s Distinctive Competence Much excellent work has already been done. HOWEVER – Collectively this work has not focused adequately on the economics. THE ADVANTAGE The microeconomic costs and effects of each mitigation option The macroeconomic effects of policy alternatives Industry expertise in: EnergyConstructionChemicals AutosManufacturingIT SteelTransportationand others… 19Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc.

20. 20 We Practically Invented the Industry Consistently Named Among the Top Economic Forecasters in the World

21. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 21 Expertise Built Upon a Solid Foundation

22. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc. 22 For Additional Information … Gil Rodgers, Senior Director Global Insight, Lexington, MA +1-781-301-9142 gil.rodgers@globalinsight.com Peter Seager, Principal Global Insight, London +44 20 8544 7924 peter.seager@globalinsight.com