1. Comparative Evaluation between Elevated and Underground Metro Charkop-Bandra-Mankhurd Link 5-6 1 By Hitesh L Bhanushali Under guidance of Prof. S.L.Dhingra

2. Overview of presentation 2 Introduction Study Area Comparison of Underground and Elevated Metro Economic Evaluation of Fifth Link of Metro line II Conclusion

3. Introduction 3 Mumbai Metro Main objective is to provide a rail based mass transit connectivity to people within an approach distance of 1 to 2 Km. Need of Metro Project The existing public transportation systems viz. sub-urban trains and BEST buses are saturated. The existing sub-urban trains connect the northern and southern parts of the city and there is huge gap in connectivity between eastern and western suburbs of the city.

4. Cont…… 4 Phase I (2006 – 2011) Versova - Andheri – Ghatkopar - 11.07 Km Colaba - Bandra – Charkop - 38.24 Km Bandra - Kurla – Mankhurd - 13.37 Km Total - 62.68 Km Phase II (2011 – 2016) Charkop - Dahisar - 7.5 Km Ghatkopar – Mulund - 12.4 Km Phase III ( 2016 – 2021) BKC - Kanjur Marg via Airport - 19.5 Km Andheri(E) - Dahisar(E) - 18 Km Hutatma Chowk – Ghatkopar - 21.8 Km Sewri – Prabhadevi - 3.5 Km Total Length146.5 km

5. Study Area 5 Metro II (Charkop-Bandra-Mankhurd) Link 5-6 Oshiwara to samartha nagar Length: 1.81m Total length of metro lineII is 31.87 m

6. 6 Fig: Map showing all station for Charkop – Bandra -Mankhurd corridor Source: (http://www.mumbaimetro1.com/HTML/project_update.html)http://www.mumbaimetro1.com/HTML/project_update.html

7. Economic Evaluation 7 Total Transportation Cost 1. Cost of construction of the facility initially 2. Periodic cost of maintaining the facility over its design life 3. Road User Cost a) Vehicle Operating Cost b) Time Cost c) Accident Cost d) Pollution emission Cost

8. Outline 8 Introduction Study Area Need of Metro and comparison of elevated & underground Total transportation Cost Economic Evaluation –methods NPV method & Results Conclusions

9. Construction Cost 9 YearLand Cost Construction cost at March 2007 Prices Present Costruction cost With 5% Escalation Completion cost 201020013851835 2011125415649565204 2012 415648115304 2013 277132083714 2014 138516031948 Source: Comparative Evaluation between Elevated and Underground Metro report, Dr. S.L Dhingra maintenance cost increases at 3% rate with the number of years Table: Land and construction cost for metro II

10. VOC 10 VOC (per annum) = VOC (Per day per vehicle per Km) * Daily vehicle utilization in Km *365*Total traffic*traffic proportion for the link 10% of total traffic (source: From model of greater mumbai for BRT project)

11. 11 Mode DAILY VEHICLE UTILIZATION IN KM VEHICLE INFLUENCE OCCUPANCY / VEHICLE YEAR / MODE Total No. of Vehicles 2010 BUS21130%34BUS7796 CAR3030%2CAR526239 2 W3030%1.22 W702282 3 W10030%1.83 W122061 Total1358378 in 2003in 2009 SpeedBusesCars Two Wheelers AutoBusesCars Two Wheelers Auto 829.27 41.52 1026.116.631.985.3937.049.402.817.65 1521.34.941.683.8430.217.012.385.45 2018.254.071.533.0725.895.772.174.35 Source: Detailed project report Mumbai Metro Project” DMRC (NOV 2006) Table: Number of Vehicles Table : Average Speed for different Modes

12. VOT 12 Time Cost or Value of time VOT (per annum) = VOT (Rs./hr./Vehicle)* Daily vehicle utilization in Km *365*Total Traffic*traffic proportion for the link /Average Speed Table: Value of time for Different Modes S. No.Modes VOT(Rs./hour/pers on) in 2003 VOT(Rs./hr./Vehicl e) in 2003 VOT(Rs./hour/pers on) in 2009 VOT(Rs./hr./Vehicl e) in 2009 1BUS13.01442.3415.53528.18 2CAR33.1866.3639.6279.24 32 W20.4724.56424.4429.33 43 W19.6335.33423.4442.19 Source: Mumbai Urban Infrastructure Project (MUIP) Document: 2002114/RH/REP-006 page 18 of 33

13. Accident cost 13 Accident cost (per annum) = accident cost per each *number of accidents*traffic proportion factor the link Table: Cost of Accident (lakhs)Table: No. of Road Accidents Year / Accidents 200120022003 Fatal523462377 Serious179414091391 Minor Slight 479948864471 YearFatalSeriousSlight 1990210000320001100 2003447915682542346 2009635376968203328 Source: Manual of Economic Evaluation.SP-30, IRC 1993 and updated to 2003 @ 6% inflation rate.

14. Pollution Emission Cost 14 Pollution cost = Pollution emission (Kg / 1000 Liters Daily)*cost per kg emission* vehicle utilization in Km *365*Total Traffic*traffic proportion for the link /1000 cost per one Kg of emission of pollution as Rs.42 /- Mode Fuel Consumption (Litre / Km Reduction Fuel Consumption to decongestion effects (Litre / Km) Pollution emission (Kg / 1000 Litres Bus0.2790.068296.5 Car0.0770.0287447.6 2 Wheeler0.0290.0096447.6 3 Wheeler0.0540.0192447.6 Table: Pollution emission table my different modes Source: SP 30

15. Methods of Economic Evaluation Net Present Value (NPV) Method 15

16. Cont…… Benefit-Cost (B/C) Ratio Method The benefit-cost ratio is the ratio between discounted total benefits and costs. For a project to be acceptable, the ratio must have a value of 1 or greater. 16

17. Cont…… Internal Rate of Return Method The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is the discount rate which makes the discounted future benefits equal to the initial outlay. In other words, it is the discount rate which makes the stream of cash flows to zero. 17

18. Results 18 NPVIRRB/C With underground 562.0717.17 1.51 With Elevated 682.0720.83572 1.97 Table: Results comparing with metro and without metro

19. Sensitivity analysis for elevated vs without metro 19 NPVIRR No change 562.0717.17 %10 increase in construction cost 529.6916.07 20% increase in construction cost 497.3115.87 10%decrease in construction cost 569.9617.95 20%decrease in construction cost 602.3418.78 10% increase in O/M cost 643.9417.29 20% increase in O/M Cost 661.3917.45 10% decrease in O/M cost 772.6917.54 20% decrease in O/M cost 763.7417.48

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22. Sensitivity analysis for Under ground vs without metro 22 NPVIRR No change 682.0720.83572 %10 increase in construction cost 649.6919.7106 20% increase in construction cost 617.3119.6994 10%decrease in construction cost 689.9621.72922 20%decrease in construction cost 722.3422.5214 10% increase in O/M cost 763.9420.51205 20% increase in O/M Cost 781.3920.61604 10% decrease in O/M cost 892.6920.26398 20% decrease in O/M cost 883.7420.2265

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25. Result: Comparison between underground with elevated metro 25 NPVB/CIRR 112.171.084% Table: Comparing Underground with Elevated NPVIRR No change 112.17 4% %10 increase in construction cost 110.813.92% 20% increase in construction cost 106.673.87% 10%decrease in construction cost 115.674.87% 20%decrease in construction cost 122.185.34% Table: Sensitivity analysis

26. Conclusion 26 NPV & B/C ratio for both elevated and underground for link 5-6 of metro II is feasible. Comparing Under ground metro with elevated metro, underground is beneficial but its IRR and NPV values are not very high.

27. 27 Thank you