1. World supply and demand of tilapia Helga Josupeit Rome INFOFISH Tilapia Conference, Kuala Lumpur, October 2010

2. Outline world productionworld production world exports,world exports, –with special emphasis on China world importsworld imports –with special emphasis on the US market Forecast for 2015Forecast for 2015 SummarySummary

3. World tilapia production

4. Tilapia production by major countries

5. World tilapia production by species

6. 1200000 900000 130000 150000 430000 9000 2008 Tilapia Aquaculture production (2008, by region, in tonnes)

7. 1200000 900000 130000 150000 430000 9000 2008 2000 Aquaculture production (2000 versus 2008, by region, in tonnes)

8. Trade flow, China 2009 (in tonnes) 134000 18800 36000 22000 Total Chinese tilapia exports: 259 000 tonnes 20000 6600

9. Chinese tilapia exports.......................Jan-Dec.................................Jan-Jun.......... 200720082009 200820092010 (1000 tonnes) USA122.0118.6134.4 50.855.666.5 Mexico39.336.536.2 17.917.521.4 Russia19.317.121.9 9.410.39.9 Israel4.14.26.6 1.31.82.8 Germany1.21.72.0 0.8 1.3 Hong Kong1.50.31.1 0.20.30.6 Belgium1.42.31.6 0.80.71.1 Puerto Rico1.31.71.2 0.6 0.7 Dominican Rep.1.40.51.0 0.10.6 Canada0.70.62.4 0.30.81.1 Others23.040.949.7 14.114.231.3 Total215.2224.4258.1 96.3103.2137.3

10. Trade flow estimates, excluding China 2009 (in tonnes) 9300 12700 15500 10000 2000 Total tilapia exports excluding China : 40 000 tonnes

11. Trade flow estimates 2006-2009 comparison (in tonnes) 104000 12000 12400 21500 1000 5000 8000 500 1000 170000 USA, Canada and Mexico 2006 2009 40000 (Russia + EU) 20 2000 10000 1 15500 9300 12700

12. Trade flow estimates 2009 (in tonnes) increase by 70% 2006 2009 huge increase double moderate increase disappeared sharp decline stable disappeared

13. Import estimates 2009 (in tonnes, product weight) 7000 22000 21000 40000 183000 1000 20000

14. US tilapia imports 1000 tonnes

15. US tilapia imports.......................Jan-Dec.................................Jan-Jun.......... 200720082009 200820092010 (1000 tonnes) China120.0119.3130.452.556.868.8 Indonesia8.69.88.84.94.04.6 Taiwan PC16.118.615.79.98.58.6 Ecuador12.59.210.24.95.34.5 Thailand0.23.71.61.90.81.5 Honduras7.98.36.54.53.23.5 Costa Rica4.85.65.72.9 3.2 Others3.64.94.52.72.4 Total173.7179.4183.4 84.283.997.0 Source: GLOBEFISH

16. Frozen tilapia fillets in the US wholesale market (US$/lb)

17. Fresh tilapia fillets in the US wholesale market (US$/lb)

18. Supply estimates 2009 (in tonnes, liveweight equivalent) 21000 66000 56000 190000 480000 130000 500000 945000 12000 7000 950000

19. Past Supply trends imports growing supply growing supply limited domestic production stagnant, one third of supply from imports imports growing, all supply from imports supply mainly from domestic production, which is growing, exports declining more than half of production goes to exports, production stabilizes production growing, almost no exports, limited imports imports stable, all supply from imports some small imports production growing strongly, mainly for domestic market

20. Tilapia forecast – scenario 1: no further growth in China forecast 2015: 4.6 million tonnes

21. Tilapia forecast – scenario 2: growth in China forecast 2015: 5 million tonnes

22. Supply trends – 2015 imports stable supply stable supply limited domestic production stagnant, half of supply from imports imports stable, all supply from imports supply mainly from domestic production, which is growing, exports almost nil more than half of production goes to exports, production stabilizes production growing, almost no exports, limited imports imports declining, all supply from imports some small imports production growing strongly, mainly for domestic market Overall: supply in developed countries will stabilize, increased production all for Asian and Latin American market

23. World tilapia exports Trade relatively unimportant, but expandingTrade relatively unimportant, but expanding Total world trade can be estimated atTotal world trade can be estimated at 300 000 MT (product weight), which is double the figure of only three years ago China by far main exporter. accounting for almost 90% of total exportsChina by far main exporter. accounting for almost 90% of total exports Share of China in total trade growingShare of China in total trade growing

24. Outlook for tilapia supply Supply continues to expand, especially in South East AsiaSupply continues to expand, especially in South East Asia Some increases in Latin AmericaSome increases in Latin America China will increase presence on market, especially targeting EuropeChina will increase presence on market, especially targeting Europe However, the production in China likely to stabilizeHowever, the production in China likely to stabilize More value addition in developing countriesMore value addition in developing countries Investment by foreign companies in tilapia farmsInvestment by foreign companies in tilapia farms

25. Outlook for tilapia demand Demand is strong and growing in the USADemand is strong and growing in the USA Very good market in Latin AmericaVery good market in Latin America Demand in Europe still slow, and as the market is well supplied with pangasius and Nile perch, unlikely that there will be a strong growthDemand in Europe still slow, and as the market is well supplied with pangasius and Nile perch, unlikely that there will be a strong growth Demand in South East strong, and supplied by domestic and regional tradeDemand in South East strong, and supplied by domestic and regional trade

26. Thank you for your kind attention