2. Helping schools become ‘Inspirational’ How pupils’ data provides both challenge and opportunity Professor David Jesson University of York dj2@york.ac.uk Helping schools become ‘Inspirational’ How pupils’ data provides both challenge and opportunity Professor David Jesson University of York dj2@york.ac.uk Maximising Pupils’ Performance

3. OfSTRICH BADGERS GoodGood AvgAvg PoorPoor *93%95%97% 38%43%48%* or – the dangers of League Tables Performance Comparisons Beware … the dangers of league tables S-Rate A91% B73% C82% D55% E5% F99.2% Hospital Type Orthopaedic Accident/Emergency General Surgical Coronary Unit Maternity (shd be 200+ %) Hospice for Hospitals!

4. First Major Principle of Fair Evaluation

5. Performance Comparisons: as used by OfSTRICH Beware … the dangers of league tables S-Rate A91% B73% C82% D55% E5% F99.2% Hospital Type Orthopaedic Accident/Emergency General Surgical Coronary Unit Maternity Hospice BENCHMARKS GoodAvgPoor 97%95%93%* 48%43%38%

6. Second Major Principle of Fair Evaluation

7. Some surprising things affect outcomes

8. Another way of looking at GCSE Performance Birthmonth and Gender But the most important impact is that made by pupils’ Ks2 Points

9. Level 2B 15 Pts Level 2B 15 Pts Level 4 27 Pts Level 4 27 Pts Level 5/6 36 Pts Level 5/6 36 Pts 5+ A*/A Grades Ks1 Ks2 Ks3 GCSE National Curriculum Assessment Framework Age 7 Age 11 Age 14Age 14 Age 16 Age 14 3+ A*/A A Level Age 18

10. National Curriculum Test Levels and Points 87654321W87654321W 87654321W87654321W.. 6 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 51 45 39 33 27 21 15 9 3 51 45 39 33 27 21 15 9 3 Levels Points MidPoints

11. What goes INTO schools

12. What COMES OUT of Schools

13. What comes OUT in context of what GOES IN Dotted line shows the average or expected outcome for schools

14. What comes OUT in context of what GOES IN

15. School Level Analyses give overall ‘signals’ for more information we need to review Pupils’ progress With around 600,000 pupils taking national tests in each year we have an incomparable source of information about the progress made by different ‘types’ of pupil: For example: Boys/Girls Older/Younger Advantaged/Disadvantaged But most important of all: Outcomes for pupils of similar but differing ‘abilities’ With around 600,000 pupils taking national tests in each year we have an incomparable source of information about the progress made by different ‘types’ of pupil: For example: Boys/Girls Older/Younger Advantaged/Disadvantaged But most important of all: Outcomes for pupils of similar but differing ‘abilities’

16. Much better understanding of how well schools do arises from looking at PUPILS Every year some 600,000 pupils take the Key Stage 2 tests – these provide a basis for GROUPING pupils into 5 BANDS - so that we can discover how well pupils ‘like ours’ perform in all the other schools in the country This produces a ‘Progress Framework’ which we use in each school to see how much ‘better’ (or ‘worse’) our pupils have done when compared to national ‘expectations’

17. Over 600,000 pupils take these tests each year. They are NEW tests on each occasion and provide the basis for reviewing BOTH pupils’ later progress and schools’.

18. OfSTRICH BADGERS GoodGood AvgAvg PoorPoor *93%95%97% 38%43%48%* Defining Pupil Groups For each year group, pupils can be placed in one of five KS2 groups defined by KS2 points score LowBelowAverageAboveHigh 15.0 to 22.5 22.5 to 25.5 25.5 to 28.5 28.5 to 30.5 30.5 to 36.0

19. Using Pupil information: 2010Update Each year DFE provides data showing % of pupils achieving 5+ A*CEM passes in each of these groups: LowBelowAverageAboveHigh 3%16%48%80%95% 4%18%52%83%96% 3%14%43%75%94% Girls Boys

20. What is ‘expected’ of pupils in each group 3% 16% 48% 80% 95%

21. These frameworks are now accessible to all schools SSAT’s Data Enabler Service allows schools to: Review their latest progress Identify areas of strength and weakness Provide Subject Area evaluations Identify specific pupil groups and teachers Use the frameworks to ‘predict’ what performance to expect from the next round of GCSE exams Provide a starting point for official inspection reports and evaluations BUT WHAT DOESN’T IT DO ….?? SSAT’s Data Enabler Service allows schools to: Review their latest progress Identify areas of strength and weakness Provide Subject Area evaluations Identify specific pupil groups and teachers Use the frameworks to ‘predict’ what performance to expect from the next round of GCSE exams Provide a starting point for official inspection reports and evaluations BUT WHAT DOESN’T IT DO ….??

22. Excitement Challenge Being ‘on the edge’

23. For over 50 years the main focus in schools has been on achieving ‘5 Good Passes’ 1951 ‘O levels’ introduced 5+ A to C Passes 1988 GCSE used 5+ A to C Passes 1992 A* Grades awarded 2006 5+ A*CEM introduced 2010 English Baccalaurate ‘appeared’ And what next ….?? 201X 5+ A*/A Passes

24. Raising the bar …. for some Clearly this indicator is NOT RELEVANT to ALL pupils - but is highly so for some The next chart shows WHY this is necessary – and WHICH PUPILS will be involved

25. Over the last few years GCSE ‘success’ rates have risen dramatically 7% 10%13% 21% 33% 26% 30% 36% 45% 57% 55% 60% 66% 72% 79% 81% 83% 85% 89% 93% 95% 96% 97% 97% 98% ‘Lower’ & ‘Average’ Groups have improved rapidly. Less opportunity for others to ‘do better’! How do we continue to challenge?

27. ‘More Able’ ? 28.5+ Ks2 Points and above

28. Pupils’ Ks2 Points PercentagePercentage Pupils’ Key Stage 2 Points for GCSE 2010 classifying ‘More Able’ pupils Pupils in ‘Above’ & ‘High’ Ks2 Groups: 40% in Non- selective schools

31. ‘Unpack’ this group for analysis The FIVE GROUP framework used for earlier GCSE Performance evaluations suggests a way ahead: Create a FIVE GROUP framework for these ‘More Able’ Pupils This provides ways of exploring how well ‘More Able’ pupils have done in individual schools and clusters Here’s how it’s done ….

33. Creating a framework for Progress amongst ‘More Able’ pupils GroupM1M2M3M4M5 Ks2 Pts28.6 – 29.2 29.3 – 30.1 30.2 – 31.0 31.1 – 32.1 32.2 – 36.0 We can provide the numbers of pupils in each of these groups for YOUR SCHOOL’S last Y11 cohort from 2010. You can also take this forward for your current Years 11 & 10 (with a bit of help from friends!) What do we ‘expect’ from pupils like these? How well did my school do? What are we looking for in 2011?

34. But it’s the PUPILS’ results that really matter The next chart shows how strongly MABLE pupils’ ‘starting points’ are related to their chances of achieving A*/A grades We’ve shown this for 5+ A*/A grades

35. ‘More Able’ Pupils achieving 5+ A*/A Passes 5% 10% 20% 33% 65% 5+ A*/A Passes

36. ‘More Able’ Pupils in your schools Last year (2010) you had 1750 pupils in Y11 – of these just over 1000 were identified as ‘More Able’ Of these 409 obtained 5+ A*/A Passes How does this compare with national expectations? Are we doing as well as we could – and where are the issues that need to be faced? What’s it like in MY school

37. What happened in this Cluster in 2010? 1M1M2M3M4M5Tot No ’ s1291951971903111022 5+A/A* 5%10%20%33%65% Results 14265584230409 Expect Difference + 8 + 6 + 16 + 21 + 28 +79 6 20 39 63 202 330 79 pupils (out of 1022) ‘better than expected’ +8%

38. Example of how this works for a school ??M1M2M3M4M5Tot No ’ s1223382751141 5+A/A* 5%10%20%33%65% Results 02632637 Expect Difference - 1 0 0 - 3 - 7 - 14 1 2 6 9 33 51 14 pupils (out of 141) ‘less than expected’ – 10%

39. Cluster schools’ Performance No names – but this is what happened in 2010 (Further information if you join the York Project!) Over 10% MORE pupils gained 5+ A*/A than ‘expected’ 3 sch About as many pupils gained 5+ A*/A ‘as expected’ 3 sch More than 10% LESS pupils gained 5+ A*/A than ‘expected’ 1 sch The actual results are: +23% +12% +11% +4% -2% -7% -11% Which is which is obviously important – but confidential!

40. The next slides show how these frameworks can be used in YOUR school The York Project uses these for two purposes: First - to REVIEW last year’s 5+ A*/A outcomes Then – using Teacher Assessments of current Y11 pupils – to PREVIEW next year’s likely results The latter actions can highlight issues to be addressed (for pupils, subject areas and teachers) while there is still time to remedy areas indicating ‘underperformance’

41. Your school’s 5+ A*/A Passes M1M2M3M4M5Tot No ’ s 5+A/A* 5%10%20%33%65% Results Expect Difference

42. Your school’s A*/A English Passes ENGM1M2M3M4M5Tot No ’ s A/A*8%15%25%33%60% Results Expect Difference

43. Your school’s A*/A Maths Passes MATM1M2M3M4M5Tot No ’ s A*/A 7%12%25%40%66% Expect Difference

45. Gaining A*/A Passes ….what then This is obviously encouraging for pupils and also for their schools – but the implications for students’future career trajectories suggest this has an even greater importance for the nation. In 2008 some 1077 pupils from these schools went on to A-level studies. Just under 800 of these went to Barton Peveril or Peter Symonds Colleges and just under half of these (341 students) had 5 or more A*/A Grades at GCSE

46. Gaining 3 A Level A*/A Grades 341 students who achieved 5+ A*/A GCSE Passes (2008 ) entered the local VI Form Colleges 103 of YOUR PUPILS achieved 3 A*/A Alevel Grades in 2010 Hampshire Colleges provide some of the largest numbers with 3 A*/A grades from ANY schools in the nation – more than schools like Eton and Charterhouse and better than many Grammars This is one criterion for entry to ‘good’ Universities

47. Gaining 3 A Level A*/A Grades PS & BP Colleges 339 with 3 A’s from 1011 entries Eton College 133 with 3 A’s from 334 entries 99% of students who gained 3 A’s had achieved 5+ A*/A Grades at GCSE Clearly – helping GCSE pupils achieve 5+ A*/A passes is a KEY factor for the rest of their lives

48. The vital importance of ‘More Able’ pupils The next steps in ‘Improvement’ are bound to include the outcomes of ‘More Able’ pupils Expect much more emphasis on High Level outcomes Very little has been done so far to prepare for this Schools now have the opportunity of developing this work in partnership with the University of York It offers exciting new ways of inspiring our young people Professor David Jesson dj2@york.ac.uk

49. Helping schools become ‘Inspirational’ How pupils’ data provides both challenge and opportunity Professor David Jesson University of York dj2@york.ac.uk Helping schools become ‘Inspirational’ How pupils’ data provides both challenge and opportunity Professor David Jesson University of York dj2@york.ac.uk Maximising Pupils’ Performance