1. Neil Harrison, David James and Kathryn Last The impact of a skills-led qualification on GCSE attainment: the case of ASDAN's Certificate of Personal Effectiveness Education and Employers Taskforce 16 th October 2012

2. Background to CoPE (1)  Skills-led qualification offered by ASDAN  Based around modules that promote learning through undertaking ‘challenges’, Plan-Do-Review process and portfolio-building (c.f. Watkins 2010)  Modules include Work-Based Learning and Enterprise and Vocational Preparation - wider key skills run through all modules  Learner-centred, drawing on personal interests, innovative curriculum and mainstream school work

3. Background to CoPE (2)  Available at Levels 1, 2 and 3  This study focused on Level 2 – usually taken at KS4 and currently equivalent to B at GCSE  Offered across around 1,000 schools, with around 10,000 young people completing each year  A wide range of young people take CoPE, though pupils with lower measured ability, FSM and special educational needs are over-represented

4. Use of CoPE in schools  We identified two main uses of CoPE:  ‘Thin’ – where used mainly as supplement for small minority of young people with disrupted education between KS3 and KS4 (e.g. illness, absenteeism, disengagement, behavioural issues)  ‘Wide’ – where used as a more mainstream tool either to enhance the curriculum, increase motivation or broaden opportunities for achievement  This distinction is based on data, with the ‘boundary’ set at 25% of cohort

5. Research method  Three strand approach: 1. Analysis of National Pupil Database (NPD) – statistical analysis of around 500,000 entries for cohort completing KS4 in 2010 2. Matched pairs – quasi-experimental study using pairs of learners either taking or not taking CoPE, but otherwise similar across eight variables 3. Case studies – research visits to four schools (three ‘thin’ and one ‘wide’), with interviews with learners, teachers and school managers

6. National Pupil Database analysis  Multilevel binary logistic regression  Dependent variable is outcome in four variations: 1. GCSE English pass at grades A* to G 2. GCSE English pass at grades A* to C 3. GCSE English pass at grades A* or A 4. Achieving five GCSEs passes at A* to C (inc. Eng/Maths)  Identifies the unique impact of each variable while holding others constant  Accounts for clustering of learners within schools and both individual and school level variables

7. Variables investigated KS3 English outcome, gender, FSM, SEN, ESL, ethnicity, persistent absentee during KS3, taking CoPE or not School attainment (%passing English and Maths at A* to C) School deprivation (% living in high IDACI neighbourhoods) ‘Wide’ or ‘Thin’ CoPE use – or none School Learner A Learner B

8. NPD findings (1)  GCSE English pass at A* to G:  In both ‘thin’ and ‘wide’ schools, taking CoPE is associated with a significantly higher likelihood  Other significant predictors: Positive: KS3 English outcome (L6/7), gender (=female), ethnicity (=BME), ESL (=yes), high school English and Maths pass rate Negative: KS3 English outcome (L2/3/4), FSM (=yes), SEN (=yes), KS3 absentee (=yes), high school deprivation

9. NPD findings (2)  GCSE English pass at A* to C:  In ‘wide’ schools, taking CoPE is associated with a significantly higher likelihood  In ‘thin’ schools, taking CoPE is associated with a significantly lower likelihood  Other significant predictors: Positive: KS3 English outcome (L6/7), gender (=female), ethnicity (=BME), ESL (=yes), high school English and Maths pass rate, high school deprivation Negative: KS3 English outcome (L2/3/4), FSM (=yes), SEN (=yes), KS3 absentee (=yes)

10. GCSE English A* to C

11. NPD findings (3)  GCSE English pass at A* or A:  In ‘wide’ schools, taking CoPE has a non-significant relationship with the likelihood of achieving pass  In ‘thin’ schools, taking CoPE is associated with a significantly lower likelihood of achieving pass  Other significant predictors: Positive: KS3 English outcome (L6/7), gender (=female), ethnicity (=BME), ESL (=yes), high school English and Maths pass rate Negative: KS3 English outcome (L2/3/4), FSM (=yes), SEN (=yes), KS3 absentee (=yes)

12. NPD findings (4)  Five GCSE passes at A* to C inc Eng/Maths:  In ‘wide’ schools, taking CoPE is associated with a significantly higher likelihood  In ‘thin’ schools, taking CoPE is associated with a significantly lower likelihood  Other significant predictors: Positive: KS3 English outcome (L6/7), ethnicity (=BME), ESL (=yes), high school English and Maths pass rate, high school deprivation Negative: KS3 English outcome (L2/3/4), gender (=female), FSM (=yes), SEN (=yes), KS3 absentee (=yes)

13. Five GCSEs at A* to C (inc. E&M)

14. Paired sample analysis (1)  200 young people completing CoPE in a ‘wide’ school chosen at random from NPD data  Matched with 200 young people in schools not offering CoPE across eight variables:  KS3 outcomes and regular absenteeism during KS3  Gender, ethnicity, special educational needs and English as additional language  Free school meals and neighbourhood deprivation  Creates two ‘identical’ schools for comparison

15. Paired sample analysis (2) No CoPECoPE in ‘wide’ school GCSE English pass at A* to C

16. Paired sample analysis (3)  Robust quasi-experimental study  The ‘CoPE school’ outperformed the ‘non CoPE school’ across all measures  Mix of significant and non-significant effects  Average uplift of one-fifth of a grade, but much higher for some

17. Interpretation of findings  In ‘thin’ schools:  CoPE is directed towards learners expected to severely underperform relative to KS3 outcomes  Learners do still underperform in relation to achieving A* to C grades, but more likely to take exams and achieve D or E grades (not F, G or U)  CoPE perceived to mitigate underperformance  In ‘wide’ schools:  CoPE is associated with better A* to C pass rates, but not achievement of top grades (A* to A) where subject knowledge vital alongside skills

18. Does CoPE work better for some?  Positive relationship of CoPE stronger for:  Those with special educational needs  Those receiving free school meals  Those from minority ethnic communities, including those with English as a second/subsidiary language  Suggests specific role for challenging educational disadvantage  No coherent relationship between CoPE and gender

19. Why does CoPE work?  Not possible to examine statistically  Rich qualitative data from case study schools  Three possible mechanisms identified:  Transferability of skills from CoPE to GCSEs – especially written communication  Increased motivation – learners actively enjoy CoPE and this engages them with other learning  Use of wider knowledge and activity base increases confidence and self-esteem – connects school to ‘lived lives’

20. Why does it matter?  CoPE is caught up in the current ‘bonfire of the vocationals’. The loss of official equivalence with GCSE will mean schools are much less likely to offer CoPE. Thus:  Loss of a learning process that appears to help a large number of pupils to gain better GCSEs (regarded by some as a prime indicator of labour supply skills)  Loss of explicit work-related opportunities for many pupils at the same time as the removal of the statutory requirement for WRL