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Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 The CLIVAR International Climate of the Twentieth Century (C20C) Project 1. History and aims 2. Methodology and approach.

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Presentation on theme: "Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 The CLIVAR International Climate of the Twentieth Century (C20C) Project 1. History and aims 2. Methodology and approach."— Presentation transcript:

1 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 The CLIVAR International Climate of the Twentieth Century (C20C) Project 1. History and aims 2. Methodology and approach 3. Forcing data sets 4. Some achievements 5. Continuing development of C20C Chris Folland, Hadley Centre, Met Office & Jim Kinter, COLA West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation (WAMME) Workshop - 20 January 2008 - New Orleans

2 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Purpose and basic methodology  Purpose: Characterize variability, trends and predictability of climatic conditions and events of the past ~130 years associated with slowly varying forcing functions including SST  Initially focused on AGCMs all forced with same HadISST sea surface temperature and sea ice analysis  Differs from AMIP in NOT being primarily focused on model validation and with strong multi-annual to multi- decadal variability (predictability and understanding aspects) focus  AMIP: only ~20 years  C20C: ~130 years

3 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Approach  Period of interest: 1871-current  Organization:  Jointly organized by Hadley Centre, UK & Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), USA  28 different modelling groups participating/affiliated internationally  CLIVAR project & reporting to WMO/CAS/WGNE  Now includes many other forcing data sets, including greenhouse gases, ozone, volcanic aerosols and solar variability  Expanded to include use of “Pacemaker experiments” and coupled models in order to more accurately simulate modes of variability that are inherently coupled, and to understand mechanisms

4 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Contributions of C20C C20C contributes to:  Seasonal to interannual predictability  Decadal to interdecadal variability & predictability  Understanding climate trends  Model evaluation

5 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Chronology  Project initiated by Hadley Centre 1993  several informal bilateral collaborations established  1 st workshop - Hadley Centre Nov 1994  input to 1995 IPCC Assessment chapter “Climate Models – Evaluation”.  special session at 1 st international AMIP conference in 1995 Revitalized in 1998-9 through infrastructure provided by COLA (www.iges.org/c20c; GDS)  2 nd workshop - COLA Jan 2002  reported in CLIVAR Exchanges, Jun 2002  agreed set of runs, updated forcing data sets, diagnostics and special projects

6 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Chronology C20C established as official CLIVAR project in January 2003  3 rd workshop - 19-23 Apr 2004, ICTP, Italy  Special meeting - 4-5 July 2005, Prague, Czech Republic  reported in CLIVAR Exchanges, Oct 2006  4 th workshop - 13-15 March 2007, Hadley Centre, UK  reported in CLIVAR Exchanges, Jan 2008

7 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Phases of C20C activity since 1999 Phase 1 (prior to 2003): SST and sea ice changes  Hadley Centre provides HadISST1.1 SST and sea ice data set as lower boundary conditions  Integrate over 1871-2002 (at least 1949-2002)  Ensembles of at least 4 members Phase 2 (2003 - ): include atmospheric composition changes  Greenhouse gases – CO 2, O 3, etc.  Aerosols (volcanic)  Solar variability  Hadley Centre can provide a full set of forcings inc. HadISST almost to date. Phase 3 ( 2007 - 2011): “Pacemaker” experiments, much more emphasis on land surface /diurnal variation of SST/ better SST and sea ice  Land surface forcing (version already in Hadley Centre model) and special experiments  Explore influence of diurnal variation of SST in enhanced version of HadISST1  More highly resolved HadISST2 from late 2009 based partly on the new high resolution Met Office OSTIA data set now used in NWP.

8 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 C20C Participating Groups  BOM (Australia)  COLA + GMU (USA)  CERFACS (France)  CNRM (France)  CPTEC (Brazil)  ETH Zurich (Switzerland)  Hadley Centre (UK)  IPSL (France)  LASG/IAP (China)  ICTP (Italy)  INGV (Italy)  MIT (USA)  MRI/JMA (Japan)  NASA/GMAO (USA)  NIWA (New Zealand)  GFDL (USA)  PMOD/WRC (Switzerland)  SNU (Korea)  UCLA (USA)  UMCP (USA)  MGO (Russia)

9 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Links to WCRP  C20C reports to CLIVAR including reports in CLIVAR Exchanges  Also reports to Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WCRP/CAS/WGNE)  New Links to CLIVAR/SPARC.

10 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Linkage to WGSIP  WMO/WCRP Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) works in C20C-related areas  develop a program of numerical experimentation for S-I variability & predictability, paying special attention to assessing & improving predictions  develop appropriate data assimilation, model initialization & forecasting procedures for seasonal to interannual predictions, considering factors like observing system evaluation, use of ensemble & probabilistic methods and statistical and empirical enhancements  advise CLIVAR SSG on the status of S-I forecasting & adequacy of CLIVAR observing system, and liaise with JSC/CLIVAR WGCM and JSC/CAS WGNE  C20C - WGSIP collaboration discussed at WCRP Workshop on Seasonal Prediction ( Barcelona, Spain, 4-7 June 2007)

11 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Contributions to IPCC AR5  C20C is well-positioned to contribute in a major way to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5, anticipated in 2012-2013  Detailed input planned at next Workshop late 2009 when IPCC AR5 will be clearer

12 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Special Topics  Predictability and understanding of seasonal to multi-decadal phenomena  1930s drought in USA (“Dust Bowl”)  Winter NAO variations, especially since 1960 including stratospheric influences.  Autumn 2000 western European floods  2003 European heat wave  Interannual to interdecadal variations of summer climate over Europe and North Atlantic.  Decadal modulation of responses to ENSO  Time series – variations, trends and their causes  SOI, NAO, PNA, Asian monsoon rainfall, Sahel rainfall, Nordeste of Brazil rainfall, MJO trends  Global and regional land surface air temperature trends  Others, e.g., river runoff trends  Use of new diagnostic methods in climate variability studies

13 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Key Validating Data Sets  NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (1948-now)  ERA40 Reanalysis (1958-2002)  HadSLP global monthly sea level pressure analysis updated with modified NCEP (1850-2007)  New EMSLP daily sea level pressure data set over extratropical N Atlantic and Europe (1850-2003)  Brohan et al land surface air temperature data (1850- now) and Hulme land surface rainfall analyses (1871-1998)  Xie-Arkin global precipitation analysis (1979-now)

14 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Recently designed C20C experiments

15 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Three contrasting examples of recent C20C published papers List of contributions: http://www.iges.org/c20c/c20c_related_papers.pdf

16 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 from Schubert et al. 2004 (Science, 19 Mar2004) Simulating Dust Bowl era drought

17 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Effect on the winter NAO of imposing observed stratospheric winds at 50hPa on HadAM3 Change in NAO index Change in surface pressure Model also forced with HadISST and all known major forcings in C20C mode. Full NAO and surface climate change 1965-95 reproduced From Scaife et al, 2005, GRL

18 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Secular increase in predictability of boreal winter mean temperature over land, 1897- 1998, using two models mainly caused by decadal changes in ENSO variability Kang et al, 2006, GRL, highlighted

19 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Evolving C20C Experimental Design  Pacemaker  Specified SST in limited region (e.g. eastern tropical Pacific or north Atlantic)  Thermodynamic ocean (slab or mixed layer formulation with Q-flux)  Dynamical ocean models in some basins  Land Use and Change (LUC)  Coordination with LUCID  Phenomena-Focused Experiments  subsets of C20C group  West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation (WAMME)  Asian monsoon  Influence of the stratosphere on seasonal predictability  Use of fully coupled models for investigating near century phenomena like AMO

20 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Pacemaker Strategy: Overcoming Shortcomings of AGCMS and Coupled Models The “Pacemaker” strategy permits a consistent air-sea energy balance while simultaneously including the time sequence of climate-driver events, such as ENSO. Teleconnections from the eastern tropical Pacific to remote tropical and extratropical regions are well represented in pacemaker runs, e.g., phenomena that are at once driven by and independent of ENSO, like the Asian monsoon. DJF SST Composite (El Nino - La Nina) Observed Pacemaker Observed JJA Rainfall Composite (El Nino - La Nina) Cash et al. 2007 Pacemaker design: specified SST regions

21 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Conceptual model for analysis of ensembles 20 th Century Climate Event (e.g. surface T trend) Consistent with ensemble means? Potentially predictable, “forced” and well modelled Consistent with ensemble members? Unpredictable internal variation but well modelled Poorly modelled in this experiment: missing process/forcing YES NO YES Methodology for multi-model evaluation (Scaife et al. 2008 in prep.)

22 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Simulations of climate indices (Scaife et al, in prep)

23 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Simulations of Normalised climate indices (Scaife et al, in prep)

24 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Simulation of Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) and causes of its decadal variations – Kucharski et al in prep. Interannual ensemble means, ENSL (1902-1999; black) and CRU (red) Interannual ensemble means, ENSS (1950-1999; black) and CRU (red) Decadal IMR of CRU (red) and the ensemble means of C20C (black)

25 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Additional Slides

26 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 C20C Participating Groups

27 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Affiliated Groups

28 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004

29 Hadley Centre © Crown copyright 2004 Pacemaker Experiments  Motivation:  On seasonal time scales, there is large-scale atmosphere-ocean covariability (e.g. ENSO- monsoon)  There is also local atmosphere-ocean coupling  Latent heat flux – SST  Rainfall – SST  Lag-lead relationships  None of these processes are well represented (often wrong sign) in typical AGCM simulations with global prescribed SST  CGCM Pacemaker Strategy  Specify SST only where it drives the atmosphere, and model the ocean (slab or dynamic) elsewhere  Main example: prescribe SST in tropical eastern Pacific (Lau and Nath, 2003)  Allow for coupled feedbacks outside region of specified SST  Test importance of thermodynamic vs. dynamic coupling  Some experiments with mixed-layer (slab) ocean models  Some experiments with dynamic ocean models

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