1. 1 Takuya KOMORI 1 Kiyotomi SATO 1, Hitoshi YONEHARA 1 and Tetsuo NAKAZAWA 2 1: Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency 2: Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute (C2) EPS perspectives 2009.05.12-15 1st TRCG Technical Forum “Status of TIGGE Activities of JMA”

2. 2 (B1) EPS design, objectives and interpretation “Why we need Ensemble Prediction System for TC forecasts?” (C2) EPS perspectives “Status of TIGGE Activities of JMA” (B2) Application for TC forecasts “How to use the products of JMA Ensemble Prediction System?” My Lectures in 1 st TRCG Technical Forum 12 May (Tue) 13 May (Wed) 14 May (Thu) “Please feel free to ask me a question at any time in the lectures.”

3. 3 Contents TIGGE Project –Provision of EPS GPV How to get and use TIGGE data? –Provision of Tropical Cyclone Data How to get and use CXML (Cyclone XML) data? Case study from EPS Perspective –Myanmar Cyclone Nargis Additional Case Studies –Typhoon Fengshen –Typhoon Hagupit –Typhoon Sinlaku

4. 4 “What is TIGGE project?”

5. 5 Background of THORPEX TIGGE is an acronym for “THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble“. THORPEX is a WMO global atmospheric research program designed to: –Advance knowledge of global-to-regional influences on weather systems to lead to improved forecast performance –Accelerate improvements in the accuracy of one-day to two-week forecasts for high-impact weather, –Contribute to the development of GIFS (the Global Interactive Forecast System), etc. THORPEX : The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment World Weather Research Programme of WMO

6. 6 TIGGE is a framework under THORPEX for international collaboration in development and testing of ensemble prediction systems. Ensemble forecast data is collected in near real-time from many operational centers. Data providers （ 10 center) BOM, CMA, CPTEC, ECMWF,JMA, KMA, Meteo-France, CMC, NCEP,UKMO TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble )

7. 7 Design structure of TIGGE data set considering potential scientific research and possible real-time applications: –Compare initial condition methods (SV, BGM, EnKF, …) –Compare multi-model and perturbed physics –Develop products ( ways to combine ensembles) –Boundary conditions for regional ensembles –Regime-dependence of ensemble configuration (size, resolution, composition) –Observation targeting (case selection) –Societal and economic impact assessment

8. 8 Condition of Use of TIGGE Data The datasets available on this server are provided freely for Research and Education purposes. Before retrieving data please read the conditions below and acknowledge that you accept them. Registration will provide you with access to the TIGGE data with a delay of 48 hours after initial time of the forecasts. Registration for real-time access is handled by the THORPEX Project Office. http://tigge-portal.ecmwf.int/d/license/tigge/

9. 9 The kind of data and the release time actually provided are different in each center. TIGGE Data Set Definition Pressure Level Parameters (1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 300, 250 and 200 hPa) –Geopotential height, Specific humidity, Temperature, U-velocity, V-velocity –In addition geopotential height is provided at 50 hPa. Potential Temperature Level Parameters (320K ) –Potential vorticity Potential Vorticity Level Parameters （ 2PVU ） –Potential temperature U-velocity, V-velocity Single level(32 parameters) –10 meter u-velocity, 10 meter v-velocity, Psea, CAPE, CIN, Field capacity, Surface pressure Land-sea mask, Orography, Skin temperature, Soil moisture, Soil temperature, Wilting point Snow depth water equivalent, Snow fall water equivalent,Sunshine duration Surface air dew point temperature, Surface air maximum temperature, Surface air minimum temperature, Surface air temperature, OLR, surface latent heat flux, surface net solar radiation, surface net thermal radiation, surface sensible heat flux,Total cloud cover, Total column water, Total precipitation

10. 10 http://dss.ucar.edu/download/tigge/tiggedocumentation.pdf Totally 259 members for each forecast time TIGGE Data Set

11. 11 JMA’s Provision of EPS GPV Data for TIGGE JMA provides GPV of One-Week EPS (WEPS) operations once a day (12UTC). –This provision was started on September 25, 2006. New parameters were added and the forecast time interval of all parameters were set to 6 hours on March 20, 2007. 60 of the 77 requested parameters are currently provided.

12. 12 Specification of JMA One-Week EPS Period2001.3.12002.2.52006.3.12007.11.21 Horizontal Grid1.125 0.5625 Vertical Layer40 60 Member25 51 Forecast time (h)216 Perturbation method BGM SV Perturbation areaNorth of 20NNorth of 20S TIGGE PERIOD

13. 13 List of available parameters of One-Week EPS Parameter From 25 September 2006 From 20 March 2007 Mean sea level pressure 6 hours interval Surface Pressure 12 hours interval 6 hours interval 10m U-velocity and V-velocity 6 hours interval Surface air (dew point) temperature 6 hours interval Total precipitation 6 hours interval Total cloud cover 6 hours interval Surface air max/min temperature X6 hours interval Snow depth water equivalent X6 hours interval Total column water X6 hours interval All radiation and flux parameters X6 hours interval Skin temperature X6 hours interval Soil moisture X6 hours interval Land-sea mask and Orography XOnly at step 0 Convective-related parameters XX Field capacity XX Snow fall water equivalent XX Soil temperature XX Sunshine duration XX Wilting point XX Parameter From 25 September 2006 From 20 March 2007 Geopotential height 12 hours interval 6 hours interval Specific Humidity 12 hours interval 6 hours interval Temperature 12 hours interval 6 hours interval U-velocity 12 hours interval 6 hours interval V-velocity 12 hours interval 6 hours interval Surface parametersPressure level parameters Parameter From 25 September 2006 From 20 March 2007 Vorticity XX Temperature XX U- and V- velocity XX Potential T/Vor level parameters Forecast time : 216 hours Grid interval : 1.25 degree Number of Member : 51

14. 14 A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200 InitialT+3daysT+6daysT+9days Multi-Center Grand Ensemble (Initial Time: 2008.09.20 12UTC)

15. 15 A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200 Initial

16. 16 A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200 T+1day

17. 17 A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200 T+2days

18. 18 A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200 T+3days

19. 19 A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200 T+4days

20. 20 A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200 T+5days

21. 21 A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200 T+6days

22. 22 A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200 T+7days

23. 23 A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200 T+8days

24. 24 A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200 T+9days

25. 25 Comparison of Control Forecasts To use TIGGE data for the development of model-ensemble method, we are monitoring control forecast of each center. RAIN OLR SSTT850

26. 26 “How to get TIGGE GPV data?”

27. 27 ECMWF portal http://tigge-portal.ecmwf.int/ NCAR portal http://tigge.ucar.edu/ CMA portal http://wisportal.cma.gov.cn/tigge/http://tigge-portal.ecmwf.int/http://tigge.ucar.edu/http://wisportal.cma.gov.cn/tigge/ ECMWF portal http://tigge-portal.ecmwf.int/ NCAR portal http://tigge.ucar.edu/ CMA portal http://wisportal.cma.gov.cn/tigge/http://tigge-portal.ecmwf.int/http://tigge.ucar.edu/http://wisportal.cma.gov.cn/tigge/ TIGGE Data Portals The TIGGE data is available from the following 3 portals: Users can use TIGGE data through web interfaces under the condition of use. NCAR CMA ECMWF

28. 28 Usage of the ECMWF Data Portal First, click this link create session cookie

29. 29 Select Level and type of forecast

30. 30 Start and end date Center ＆ base time Forecast time

31. 31 parameters Push button!

32. 32 Select area and grid Push! Select area Select grid

33. 33

34. 34 “What is CXML data?”

35. 35 CXML (Cyclone XML) Data: Motivation To facilitate easy exchange of information, a standard format to represent analyzed and forecast data for tropical and extra-tropical cyclones is proposed. The new format, called Cyclone XML (CXML) is descriptive and human-legible, making it easy for all human users and most automated applications to read. CXML data http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/projects/ THORPEX/CXML/index.html CXML data include information of multiple storms as following; –Analysis, –Forecasts of Deterministic NWP Model, –Forecasts of EPS

36. 36 JMA’s Provision of CXML Data CXML Data for western North Pacific provided by JMA includes - GSM (Deterministic Forecast Model), - One-Week EPS, - Typhoon EPS. Provision of the data was started on 1 August 2008 for T-PARC 1. 1) T-PARC is an international research projects implemented under THORPEX.

37. 37 http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/projects/ THORPEX/TC/index.html CXML providers have their own web interfaces to download the data. Download of CXML Data

38. 38 CXML Data Archive Website Click “DATA ACCESS” CXML data are also available at the Research Data Archives at NCAR: http://dss.ucar.edu/datasets/ds330.3/ http://dss.ucar.edu/datasets/ds330.3/

39. 39 Sign in, or register your information CXML Data Archive Website

40. 40 Click “Internet Download”, and users can choose CXML provider and initial times. CXML Data Archive Website