1. North Coast Regional Implementation Council Oregon Criminal Justice Commission January 24, 2014

2. We Know the Numbers You know the explanation

3. Short time periods  By looking only over a 5 month time period, the data can be particularly choppy. For Example: Umatilla County total prison months are up by 61%

4. A Note from the October Forecast  From page 13 of the October 1, 2013 prison population forecast:  Finally, daily variation in the prison population due to intake and release activity is considerable. The population on a given day regularly deviates from the monthly average population by more than 100 beds. Therefore, the actual population on the first day of a given month can be expected to differ from the forecast value by 100 beds without concern. This also means that forecast values should be interpreted as the mid-point of a range (+/- 100) within which the actual population will fluctuate.

5. Length of Stay (LOS)  If someone has been released, we know the ACTUAL length of stay  If they haven’t been released (most have not) we have an ESTIMATED length of stay  OISC does this calculation to estimate when someone will be released  The ESTIMATED length of stay accounts for consecutive sentences, jail time credit, and an estimate of earn time  This does NOT account for short-term transition leave  This estimate can change over time

6. Transitional Leave  STTL (Short Term Trans Leave) is one of the biggest bed savers in the changes made by HB 3194.  STTL is not factored into the projected LOS figures.  STTL is reflected in the LOS once the person actually leaves prison to finish their sentence in the community.  The impact of the 90 day STTL cases will not begin to hit DOC intake figures until March 2014.

7. 30 Day Short Term Trans Leave:

8. October Forecast Slide 7/1/2015: 14,251 Population

9. October Forecast Slide v. Daily DOC Intakes

10. Statewide Prison Use Aug-Dec 2012 compared to Aug-Dec 2013

11. Historical Prison Intake Comparison  Statewide is up by 81 intakes (4.2%) in total

12. Prison Intakes First Sentences  Those sent to prison as the first sentence from a conviction  Statewide is up by 29 intakes  First sentences make up about 80% of total intakes

13. Prison Intakes Probation Revocations  Those sent to prison on a probation revocation, without a new prison eligible crime  Statewide is up by 52 intakes  Second sentences make up about 20% of total intakes

14. Prison Intakes  Statewide is up by 81 intakes (4.2%) in total  Another way to look at it  Increase in intakes is driven by increase in 3 specific crimes Top 3 Crimes that Drive Increase in Intakes Aug-Dec 2012 and 2013 Crime Difference in Intakes Deliver Meth46 Deliver Heroin43 Unauthorized Use Vehicle 23

15. Prison Months (Intakes and LOS)  Statewide total prison months are down 4.5%

16. HB 3194 Prison Intakes  All Other Drug is up by 72 intakes

17. HB 3194 Average LOS  Average LOS for ID theft is up by almost 7 months

18. NW Coastal Region Prison Use Aug-Dec 2012 compared to Aug-Dec 2013

19. Historical Prison Intake Comparison  NW Coastal Region is down by 4 intakes (-2%) in total

20. Prison Intakes First Sentences  Those sent to prison as the first sentence from a conviction  NW Coastal Region is down by 10 intakes  First sentences make up about 80% of total intakes

21. Prison Intakes Probation Revocations  Those sent to prison on a probation revocation, without a new prison eligible crime  NW Coastal Region is up by 6 intakes  Second sentences make up about 20% of total intakes

22. Prison Months (Intakes and LOS)  NW Coastal Region total prison months are down 3.4%

23. HB 3194 Prison Intakes  All Other Drug is up by 15 intakes

24. HB 3194 Average LOS  Average LOS for ID theft is up by almost 12 months

25. County Details Aug-Dec 2012 compared to Aug-Dec 2013

26. Benton County  Total intakes dropped from 25 to 22  Total Prison Months are down 22% (drop in sex and other crime sentences) Clatsop County  Total intakes increased from 21 to 26  Total Prison Months are down 37% due to a drop in sex crime sentences Columbia County  Total intakes increased from 8 to 9  Total prison months are up substantially due to one sex crime sentence

27. Polk County  Total intakes increased from 16 to 24  Total Prison Months are up substantially due to increase in person crime sentences Tillamook County  Total intakes dropped from 14 to 5  Total Prison Months are down substantially due to a drop in person crime sentences

28. Prison Intakes  Lincoln County is up by 13 intakes (from 27 to 40)

29. Prison Months (Intakes and LOS)  Lincoln County total prison months are up 34%

30. Prison Intakes  Linn County is down by 11 intakes (from 89 to 78)

31. Prison Months (Intakes and LOS)  Linn County total prison months are flat

32. Prison Intakes  Yamhill County is down by 8 intakes (from 40 to 32)

33. Prison Months (Intakes and LOS)  Yamhill County total prison months are down 16%

34. Questions? If you would like more specific information about data in your county, including names and SIDs, email: Michael.Schmidt@state.or.usMichael.Schmidt@state.or.us & Kelly.Officer@state.or.usKelly.Officer@state.or.us