SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MODELING OF COLORADO PLATEAU LANDSCAPES FROM CONCEPTUAL MODELS TO A COMPUTER SYSTEM Chew, Jimmie D., Kirk Moeller, and Chris Stalling.

SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MODELING OF COLORADO PLATEAU LANDSCAPES FROM CONCEPTUAL MODELS TO A COMPUTER SYSTEM Chew, Jimmie D., Kirk Moeller, and Chris Stalling Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT

SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MODELING OF COLORADO PLATEAU LANDSCAPES – FROM CONCEPTUAL MODELS TO A COMPUTER SYSTEM Chew, Jimmie D., Kirk Moeller, and Chris Stalling Models are an essential means of incorporating science into adaptive ecosystem management. The development and use of models facilitates the explicit specification of assumptions on ecosystem functioning and the analysis of management alternatives with the uncertainties that come with limited scientific information. The process of building and using models provides transparency and enables the critical examination of assumptions. Spatially explicit simulation models can generate hypotheses concerning future trajectories of ecosystems and valued ecosystem attributes. The integration of simulation modeling into management planning can allow managers, resource specialists, and stakeholders to examine and compare potential outcomes of proposed management alternatives in relation to management objectives and desired conditions. SIMPPLLE is a spatially explicit landscape-scale modeling system for simulating vegetation changes caused by disturbance processes of wildfire, insects, and diseases. Stochastic simulations provide a range in vegetation conditions and levels of disturbance processes. A system variable of “regional climate” is used to capture the interaction between cyclic changes in temperature and moisture and disturbance processes. SIMPPLLE was originally developed for ecosystems in the Northern Rocky Mountains and its application to the Colorado Plateau is being done through the FRAMES (Framing Research to support Adaptive Management of Ecosystems) project which involves the U.S. Geological Survey, USDA Forest Service, Colorado State University, Mesa Verde National Park, Prescott College, and Northern Arizona University. The system uses conceptual models and research results specific to the Colorado Plateau and has the potential to integrate vegetation, soil, and aquatic components of landscapes. Simulation results from Mesa Verde National Park are used to quantify current trends, historic conditions, and management alternatives.

Display how SIMPPLLE can build upon conceptual models how we can capture the relationships in conceptual models how the conceptual models can help identify what is still missing in our system. Specific objectives for this presentation:

SIMulating Patterns and Processes at Landscape scaLEs

Westside & Eastside Region One all vegetation types Initial Geographic Zones in SIMPPLLE 2.3

Michigan Jack Pine & Hardwoods Sierra Nevada Mixed Conifers Southern California Chaparral Southwest Utah Sagebrush & Pinion- Juniper Westside & Eastside Region One all vegetation types Gila NF Ponderosa Pine & Pinion-Juniper South Central Alaska white spruce JFS Project added Zones in SIMPPLLE 2.3

Michigan Jack Pine & Hardwoods Sierra Nevada Mixed Conifers Southern California Chaparral Southwest Utah Sagebrush & Pinion- Juniper Westside & Eastside Region One all vegetation types Gila NF Ponderosa Pine & Pinion-Juniper South Central Alaska white spruce Western Great Plains Steppe Zones added in 2005 Mixed Grass Prairie Great Plains Steppe Colorado Front Range

all vegetation types Michigan Jack Pine & Hardwoods Sierra Nevada Mixed Conifers Southern California Chaparral Southwest Utah Sagebrush & Pinion- Juniper Westside & Eastside Region One all vegetation types Gila NF Ponderosa Pine & Pinion-Juniper South Central Alaska white spruce Western Great Plains Steppe Mixed Grass Prairie Great Plains Steppe Colorado Plateau Zones added in 2005

From Draft Reports John Vankat, Montane and Subalpine Terrestrial Ecosystems of the Southern Colorado Plateau – Literature Review and Conceptual Models. Mark Miller, 2004. Structure and functioning of dryland ecosystems: Conceptual models to inform the vital-signs selection process: Conceptual Models used:

Ecosystem Characterization Model Dynamics Model: Vegetation - Disturbance Interaction Mechanistic Model: Vegetation - Fuel - Disturbance Interaction

VEGETATION & FUELS STRUCTURE SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE PATTERNS CLIMATE – WEATHER LIGHTNING PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION WIND EXTREME EVENTS DISTURBANCE FIRE Insects SOIL SYSTEM Water & minerals Decomposers Mycorrhizae LANDSCAPE Position Topography Elevation Proximity to Ponderosa Pine Forest ANIMALS Insects Mammals EXOTIC SPECIES FIRE EXCLUSION AIR POLLUTION HISTORIC LIVESTOCK GRAZING ADJACENT LAND USE Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model SCPN John Vankat June 2005 influence disturbance regime uptake resources input organic matter & retain soil influence fuels & possibly tree density spread exotic species into ecosystem influence habitat availability influence tree mortality, vegetation pattern, & fuel consumption & production spread fires Into ecosystem 3 9 10 11 12 13 1 14 15 1618 19 20 increase insect populations replace native species & influence fuels influence soil moisture & erosion influence fuel moisture, plant vitality, & plant mortality 2 67 8 spread fires into ecosystem & influence fire pattern 5 influence microclimate & runoff 17 influence macroclimate 4 influence herb & shrub cover, tree regeneration, & fuels expose soil & alter soil components use habitat influence tree regeneration & fuels ignite fires & influence fire behavior

VEGETATION & FUELS STRUCTURE SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE PATTERNS CLIMATE – WEATHER LIGHTNING PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION WIND EXTREME EVENTS DISTURBANCE FIRE Insects SOIL SYSTEM Water & minerals Decomposers Mycorrhizae LANDSCAPE Position Topography Elevation Proximity to Ponderosa Pine Forest ANIMALS Insects Mammals EXOTIC SPECIES FIRE EXCLUSION AIR POLLUTION HISTORIC LIVESTOCK GRAZING ADJACENT LAND USE Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model SCPN John Vankat June 2005 influence disturbance regime uptake resources input organic matter & retain soil influence fuels & possibly tree density spread exotic species into ecosystem influence habitat availability influence tree mortality, vegetation pattern, & fuel consumption & production spread fires Into ecosystem 3 9 10 11 12 13 1 14 15 1618 19 20 increase insect populations replace native species & influence fuels influence soil moisture & erosion influence fuel moisture, plant vitality, & plant mortality 2 67 8 spread fires into ecosystem & influence fire pattern 5 influence microclimate & runoff 17 influence macroclimate 4 influence herb & shrub cover, tree regeneration, & fuels expose soil & alter soil components use habitat influence tree regeneration & fuels ignite fires & influence fire behavior All the screens come from SIMPPLLE’s user interface

VEGETATION & FUELS STRUCTURE SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE PATTERNS CLIMATE – WEATHER LIGHTNING PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION WIND EXTREME EVENTS DISTURBANCE FIRE Insects SOIL SYSTEM Water & minerals Decomposers Mycorrhizae LANDSCAPE Position Topography Elevation Proximity to Ponderosa Pine Forest ANIMALS Insects Mammals EXOTIC SPECIES FIRE EXCLUSION AIR POLLUTION HISTORIC LIVESTOCK GRAZING ADJACENT LAND USE Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model SCPN John Vankat June 2005 influence disturbance regime uptake resources input organic matter & retain soil influence fuels & possibly tree density spread exotic species into ecosystem influence habitat availability influence tree mortality, vegetation pattern, & fuel consumption & production spread fires Into ecosystem 3 9 10 11 12 13 1 14 15 1618 19 20 increase insect populations replace native species & influence fuels influence soil moisture & erosion influence fuel moisture, plant vitality, & plant mortality 2 67 8 spread fires into ecosystem & influence fire pattern 5 influence microclimate & runoff 17 influence macroclimate 4 influence herb & shrub cover, tree regeneration, & fuels expose soil & alter soil components use habitat influence tree regeneration & fuels ignite fires & influence fire behavior what we have in SIMPPLLE

VEGETATION & FUELS STRUCTURE SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE PATTERNS CLIMATE – WEATHER LIGHTNING PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION WIND EXTREME EVENTS DISTURBANCE FIRE Insects SOIL SYSTEM Water & minerals Decomposers Mycorrhizae LANDSCAPE Position Topography Elevation Proximity to Ponderosa Pine Forest ANIMALS Insects Mammals EXOTIC SPECIES FIRE EXCLUSION AIR POLLUTION HISTORIC LIVESTOCK GRAZING ADJACENT LAND USE Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model SCPN John Vankat June 2005 influence disturbance regime uptake resources input organic matter & retain soil influence fuels & possibly tree density spread exotic species into ecosystem influence habitat availability influence tree mortality, vegetation pattern, & fuel consumption & production spread fires Into ecosystem 3 9 10 11 12 13 1 14 15 1618 19 20 increase insect populations replace native species & influence fuels influence soil moisture & erosion influence fuel moisture, plant vitality, & plant mortality 2 67 8 spread fires into ecosystem & influence fire pattern 5 influence microclimate & runoff 17 influence macroclimate 4 influence herb & shrub cover, tree regeneration, & fuels expose soil & alter soil components use habitat influence tree regeneration & fuels ignite fires & influence fire behavior Non-Native Invasions Following Fire in Southwestern Colorado: Long-term Effectiveness of Mitigation Treatments And Future Predictions May 2004 Lisa Floyd-Hanna, David Hanna, William H. Romme, Tim Crews

VEGETATION & FUELS STRUCTURE SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE PATTERNS CLIMATE – WEATHER LIGHTNING PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION WIND EXTREME EVENTS DISTURBANCE FIRE Insects SOIL SYSTEM Water & minerals Decomposers Mycorrhizae LANDSCAPE Position Topography Elevation Proximity to Ponderosa Pine Forest ANIMALS Insects Mammals EXOTIC SPECIES FIRE EXCLUSION AIR POLLUTION HISTORIC LIVESTOCK GRAZING ADJACENT LAND USE influence disturbance regime uptake resources input organic matter & retain soil influence fuels & possibly tree density spread exotic species into ecosystem influence habitat availability influence tree mortality, vegetation pattern, & fuel consumption & production spread fires Into ecosystem 3 9 10 11 12 13 1 14 15 1618 19 20 increase insect populations replace native species & influence fuels influence soil moisture & erosion influence fuel moisture, plant vitality, & plant mortality 2 67 8 spread fires into ecosystem & influence fire pattern 5 influence microclimate & runoff 17 influence macroclimate 4 influence herb & shrub cover, tree regeneration, & fuels expose soil & alter soil components use habitat influence tree regeneration & fuels ignite fires & influence fire behavior COMPARE THE DIFFERENT PROBABILITY AS A RESULT OF DIFFERENT COMBIATIONS

Where do these number come from? Someone has to take the research and the practical experience you have and “frame” it to be useful

VEGETATION & FUELS STRUCTURE SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE PATTERNS CLIMATE – WEATHER LIGHTNING PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION WIND EXTREME EVENTS DISTURBANCE FIRE Insects SOIL SYSTEM Water & minerals Decomposers Mycorrhizae LANDSCAPE Position Topography Elevation Proximity to Ponderosa Pine Forest ANIMALS Insects Mammals EXOTIC SPECIES FIRE EXCLUSION AIR POLLUTION HISTORIC LIVESTOCK GRAZING ADJACENT LAND USE Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model SCPN John Vankat June 2005 influence disturbance regime uptake resources input organic matter & retain soil influence fuels & possibly tree density spread exotic species into ecosystem influence habitat availability influence tree mortality, vegetation pattern, & fuel consumption & production spread fires Into ecosystem 3 9 10 11 12 13 1 14 15 1618 19 20 increase insect populations replace native species & influence fuels influence soil moisture & erosion influence fuel moisture, plant vitality, & plant mortality 2 67 8 spread fires into ecosystem & influence fire pattern 5 influence microclimate & runoff 17 influence macroclimate 4 influence herb & shrub cover, tree regeneration, & fuels expose soil & alter soil components use habitat influence tree regeneration & fuels ignite fires & influence fire behavior The spatial relationships between types of units from the gis covers are carried in SIMPPLLE

VEGETATION & FUELS STRUCTURE SMALL- to LARGE-SCALE PATTERNS CLIMATE – WEATHER LIGHTNING PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION WIND EXTREME EVENTS DISTURBANCE FIRE Insects SOIL SYSTEM Water & minerals Decomposers Mycorrhizae LANDSCAPE Position Topography Elevation Proximity to Ponderosa Pine Forest ANIMALS Insects Mammals EXOTIC SPECIES FIRE EXCLUSION AIR POLLUTION HISTORIC LIVESTOCK GRAZING ADJACENT LAND USE Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Characterization Model SCPN John Vankat June 2005 influence disturbance regime uptake resources input organic matter & retain soil influence fuels & possibly tree density spread exotic species into ecosystem influence habitat availability influence tree mortality, vegetation pattern, & fuel consumption & production spread fires Into ecosystem 3 9 10 11 12 13 1 14 15 1618 19 20 increase insect populations replace native species & influence fuels influence soil moisture & erosion influence fuel moisture, plant vitality, & plant mortality 2 67 8 spread fires into ecosystem & influence fire pattern 5 influence microclimate & runoff 17 influence macroclimate 4 influence herb & shrub cover, tree regeneration, & fuels expose soil & alter soil components use habitat influence tree regeneration & fuels ignite fires & influence fire behavior These spatial relationship can be used throughout SIMPPLLE

Area 8 Area 17 (From analysis by Robert Ahl, graduate student, University of Montana) Spreading processes – how do they affect the decision on identifying the Minimum Dynamic Area (MDA) A comparison of simulated processes on two different landscapes

Area 8 Area 17 Very distinct boundaries between watersheds. Watershed boundaries are less distinct and tend to be forested.

Fire Originated Fire Spread Geographic Area 8 origin and spread taken from one SIMPPLLE simulation Notice how watershed boundaries restrict spread

Fire Originated Fire Spread Geographic Area 17 origin and spread from one SIMPPLLE simulation Notice how watershed boundaries do not restrict spread

Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Ecosystem Dynamics Model Vegetation - Disturbance Interaction SCPN John Vankat June 2005 WOODLAND Ju spp., Pi spp. STATE A A2 3 surface fire STATE B STATE C NON-WOODLAND/ FOREST/SAVANNA variable composition C1 TRANSITION B EARLY SUCCESSIONAL SHRUBLAND variable composition MID SUCCESSIONAL WOODLAND Ju spp., Pi spp. DENSE FOREST Ju spp., Pi spp. B1 B2 B3 crown fire 5 7 10 succession greatly decreased frequency of surface fires restoration of woodland structure & surface fire regime TRANSITION A Insect mortality 7 soil recovery & restoration of vegetation large, soil-sterilizing or soil-eroding crown fire frequent disturbance 10

Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Ecosystem Dynamics Model Vegetation - Disturbance Interaction SCPN John Vankat June 2005 WOODLAND Ju spp., Pi spp. STATE A A2 3 surface fire STATE B STATE C NON-WOODLAND/ FOREST/SAVANNA variable composition C1 TRANSITION B EARLY SUCCESSIONAL SHRUBLAND variable composition MID SUCCESSIONAL WOODLAND Ju spp., Pi spp. DENSE FOREST Ju spp., Pi spp. B1 B2 B3 crown fire 5 7 10 succession greatly decreased frequency of surface fires restoration of woodland structure & surface fire regime TRANSITION A Insect mortality 7 soil recovery & restoration of vegetation large, soil-sterilizing or soil-eroding crown fire frequent disturbance 10 Relationships in the “disturbance interaction” model are capture in SIMPPLLE’s pathways

Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Ecosystem Dynamics Model Vegetation - Disturbance Interaction SCPN John Vankat June 2005 WOODLAND Ju spp., Pi spp. STATE A A2 3 surface fire STATE B STATE C NON-WOODLAND/ FOREST/SAVANNA variable composition C1 TRANSITION B EARLY SUCCESSIONAL SHRUBLAND variable composition MID SUCCESSIONAL WOODLAND Ju spp., Pi spp. DENSE FOREST Ju spp., Pi spp. B1 B2 B3 crown fire 5 7 10 succession greatly decreased frequency of surface fires restoration of woodland structure & surface fire regime TRANSITION A Insect mortality 7 soil recovery & restoration of vegetation large, soil-sterilizing or soil-eroding crown fire frequent disturbance 10 Pathways stratified by ecological sites

Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Ecosystem Dynamics Model Vegetation - Disturbance Interaction SCPN John Vankat June 2005 WOODLAND Ju spp., Pi spp. STATE A A2 3 surface fire STATE B STATE C NON-WOODLAND/ FOREST/SAVANNA variable composition C1 TRANSITION B EARLY SUCCESSIONAL SHRUBLAND variable composition MID SUCCESSIONAL WOODLAND Ju spp., Pi spp. DENSE FOREST Ju spp., Pi spp. B1 B2 B3 crown fire 5 7 10 succession greatly decreased frequency of surface fires restoration of woodland structure & surface fire regime TRANSITION A Insect mortality 7 soil recovery & restoration of vegetation large, soil-sterilizing or soil-eroding crown fire frequent disturbance 10 Ecological Site Collection of states (species/size-class/density) with Next-state as result of a disturbance process

Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Ecosystem Dynamics Model Vegetation - Disturbance Interaction SCPN John Vankat June 2005 WOODLAND Ju spp., Pi spp. STATE A A2 3 surface fire STATE B STATE C NON-WOODLAND/ FOREST/SAVANNA variable composition C1 TRANSITION B EARLY SUCCESSIONAL SHRUBLAND variable composition MID SUCCESSIONAL WOODLAND Ju spp., Pi spp. DENSE FOREST Ju spp., Pi spp. B1 B2 B3 crown fire 5 7 10 succession greatly decreased frequency of surface fires restoration of woodland structure & surface fire regime TRANSITION A Insect mortality 7 soil recovery & restoration of vegetation large, soil-sterilizing or soil-eroding crown fire frequent disturbance 10 Ecological Site A state exists for each 10 year time Step – states can be edited

Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Ecosystem Dynamics Model Vegetation - Disturbance Interaction SCPN John Vankat June 2005 WOODLAND Ju spp., Pi spp. STATE A A2 3 surface fire STATE B STATE C NON-WOODLAND/ FOREST/SAVANNA variable composition C1 TRANSITION B EARLY SUCCESSIONAL SHRUBLAND variable composition MID SUCCESSIONAL WOODLAND Ju spp., Pi spp. DENSE FOREST Ju spp., Pi spp. B1 B2 B3 crown fire 5 7 10 succession greatly decreased frequency of surface fires restoration of woodland structure & surface fire regime TRANSITION A Insect mortality 7 soil recovery & restoration of vegetation large, soil-sterilizing or soil-eroding crown fire frequent disturbance 10 Ecological Site A separate diagram exists for each process in the system

Pinyon-Juniper Woodland Ecosystem Dynamics Model Vegetation - Disturbance Interaction SCPN John Vankat June 2005 WOODLAND Ju spp., Pi spp. STATE A A2 3 surface fire STATE B STATE C NON-WOODLAND/ FOREST/SAVANNA variable composition C1 TRANSITION B EARLY SUCCESSIONAL SHRUBLAND variable composition MID SUCCESSIONAL WOODLAND Ju spp., Pi spp. DENSE FOREST Ju spp., Pi spp. B1 B2 B3 crown fire 5 7 10 succession greatly decreased frequency of surface fires restoration of woodland structure & surface fire regime TRANSITION A Insect mortality 7 soil recovery & restoration of vegetation large, soil-sterilizing or soil-eroding crown fire frequent disturbance 10 Ecological Site

Vegetation pathways provide: All possible “states” for a species on a ecological site The next-state that results from a disturbance process or succession Time within a size class Changes in density over time with succession Pathways don’t provide: The probability of processes occurring - this is influenced by spatially explicit information The results of regeneration – this is influenced by spatially explicit information

HERBS & SHRUBS Cover TREES Density Cover FUEL TYPE & LOAD SURFACE FUEL CONTINUITY FUEL MOISTURE FIRE INTENSITY FIRE FREQUENCY FIRE BEHAVIOR Surface Fire Crown Fire COMMUNITY TYPE LIVESTOCK GRAZING ADJACENT LAND USE FIRE EXCLUSION Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Mechanistic Model Vegetation - Fuel - Disturbance Interaction SCPN John Vankat June 2005 BARK BEETLE OUTBREAK

HERBS & SHRUBS Cover TREES Density Cover FUEL TYPE & LOAD SURFACE FUEL CONTINUITY FUEL MOISTURE FIRE INTENSITY FIRE FREQUENCY FIRE BEHAVIOR Surface Fire Crown Fire COMMUNITY TYPE LIVESTOCK GRAZING and OTHER TEATMENTS ADJACENT LAND USE –FIRE EVENTS SPREADING FROM OR LETTING FIRES SPREAD FIRE EXCLUSION Pinyon-Juniper Savanna/Woodland/Forest Ecosystem Mechanistic Model Vegetation - Fuel - Disturbance Interaction SCPN John Vankat June 2005 BARK BEETLE OUTBREAK and ENDEMIC LEVELS FIRE TYPE and FIRE SPREAD LOGIC

All interact to produce: An individual fire event from a time step in a single simulation Probability of an intensity of fire across all timesteps from multiple simulations Light severity fire Mixed severity fire Stand replacing fire

What’s in SIMPPLLE

We can recreate this relationship

Mesa Verde National Park SIMPPLLE simulation

Not in SIMPPLLE

Have the potential to expand

Landunit Pathways Landunit Process Do we add?

Grass component We have:

Grass component Shrub component We have:

Grass component Shrub component Tree component We have:

Grass component Shrub component Tree component Biological soil crust Do we add? We have:

Hydrologic response to vegetation changes can be modeled with linkages to USGS’s distributed watershed models using SIMPPLLE output Mesa Verde NP – Colorado Plateau

Potential to bring information back from watershed models to use in SIMPPLLE Mesa Verde NP – Colorado Plateau

We can “capture” the components and relationships within conceptual models. SIMulating Patterns and Processes at Landscape scaLEs

We can “capture” the components and relationships within conceptual models. How far we go with the modeling - depends on what managers find useful to help them in ”Framing Research for Adaptive Management of Ecosystems.” SIMulating Patterns and Processes at Landscape scaLEs

SIMulating Patterns and Processes at Landscape scaLEs

SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MODELING OF COLORADO PLATEAU LANDSCAPES FROM CONCEPTUAL MODELS TO A COMPUTER SYSTEM Chew, Jimmie D., Kirk Moeller, and Chris Stalling.

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SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MODELING OF COLORADO PLATEAU LANDSCAPES FROM CONCEPTUAL MODELS TO A COMPUTER SYSTEM Chew, Jimmie D., Kirk Moeller, and Chris Stalling.

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Presentation on theme: "SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MODELING OF COLORADO PLATEAU LANDSCAPES FROM CONCEPTUAL MODELS TO A COMPUTER SYSTEM Chew, Jimmie D., Kirk Moeller, and Chris Stalling."— Presentation transcript:

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