1. MODELLING THE EXISTING BUILDING STOCK Phil Jones Welsh School of Architecture

2. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution Energy - The Changing Climate

3. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution Carbon reductions: 60% by 2050 80% by 2100

4. Energy White Paper, March 2003 Calls on Building Regulations to implement further energy savings Brings forward the next release of Part L to 2005

5. Carbon saved in 2010 in E&W Predicted from ADL 2002 21% from new dwellings 47% from existing dwellings 29% from naturally ventilated non- domestic bldgs 3% from air conditioned bldgs Total saving in 2010 = 1.4 MtC - Ca 8%of the total national saving.

6. Need to reduce carbon emissions in the existing building stock EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) - Existing buildings over 1000m 2 Sustainability and Security Bill - Include buildings less than 1000m 2

7. Amendment to Part L - end of 2005 - out to consultation JULY 2004

8. A - New build semi-detached dwelling built above current building regulations B - New build semi-detached dwelling built to current building regulations C - Pre 1919 mid-terrace property with energy efficiency improvements D - Pre 1919 mid-terrace property without energy efficiency improvements Potential for energy savings in housing

9. ‘ a computer based tool for storing and predicting energy use, related emissions and other environmental factors’ Energy and Environmental Prediction (EEP) Model

10. 60,000 domestic properties. 4,000 commercial properties. 75 industrial processes. All properties have been surveyed as part of the application of the EEP model to the local authority area. Application of EEP model to Neath Port Talbot CBC

11. ENERGY - Operation of existing stock Data is collected and entered to a single house level. Information is represented to postcode level within GIS MapInfo. All data is labeled by its source postcode and stored within a general database.

12. The domestic sub-model - collecting data Details collected for every domestic property: Age Heated ground floor area Window area (A) End area No. of storeys Storey height (C) Facade The information is collected from a variety of sources including: Computer based ordnance survey maps Site visits Historical records including Ordnance Survey maps and Electoral Roll Registers Assumptions: Heating system Water heating system Type of fuel Energy efficiency measures e.g. insulation

13. The domestic sub-model - monitoring baselines CO 2 emissions, SAP ratings and yearly energy cost calculated at postcode. Information mapped in GIS to enable CO 2 or energy hotspots to be targeted.

14. a - current emissions b - installation of double glazing c - installation of condensing boile d - draught stripping e - insulation of hot water tank, f - roof insulation g - combination of b, c, d and f Predict energy savings - domestic properties

15. Thematic map illustrating the variation in energy use from domestic properties

16. Neighbourhood Assessment Tool (NAT) Property level observations Maintenance of property/gardens amount of trees present in gardens broken/boarded up windows, abandoned cars, general property maintenance. Beautification evidence of pots, furniture and ornaments, placed in location that is potentially accessible to the public. Defensible space height of surrounding boundary.

17. EEP model data base Red lines major roads Dark blue line M4 Grey areas postcodes areas surveyed

18. Ages of all domestic properties located within NPTCBC Post 1964 25% 1945 - 1964 27% 1919 - 1944 13% Pre 1919 35% Ages of all domestic properties located within Wales Pre 1919 33% 1945 - 1964 26% 1919 - 1944 18% Post 1964 23% Ages of council domestic properties located within NPTCBC Pre 1919 5% Post 1964 25% 1919 - 1944 11% 1945 - 1964 59% The EEP data can be used as a stock profiler Ages of private domestic properties located within NPTCBC Pre 1919 42% 1919 - 1944 13% 1945 - 1964 20% Post 1964 25%

19. EEP model results at postcode level

20. Map showing average ward SAP ratings. Three areas have been identified with an average SAP rating of less than 40.

21. 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70% 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 A 100 to 120 B 85 to 99 C 70 to 84 D 55 to 69 E 40 to 54 F 25 to 39 G 0 to 24 Percentage of homes having SAP ratings in the indicated ranges More Energy efficient SAP ratings Less energy efficient Private Council SAP rating breakdown for all private and council domestic properties Average SAP- 47.5 Private- 47.6 Council- 46.9

22. 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70% 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 A 100 to 120 B 85 to 99 C 70 to 84 D 55 to 69 E 40 to 54 F 25 to 39 G 0 to 24 Percentage of homes having SAP ratings in the indicated ranges More Energy efficient SAP ratings Less energy efficient SAP rating breakdown for council properties if council properties meet the WHQS guidance - total cost £26,135,505 Average SAP- 68.9

23. 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70% 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 A 100 to 120 B 85 to 99 C 70 to 84 D 55 to 69 E 40 to 54 F 25 to 39 G 0 to 24 Percentage of homes having SAP ratings in the indicated ranges More Energy efficient SAP ratings Less energy efficient SAP rating breakdown for council properties if council properties had all HEES energy efficiency measures - total cost £56,598,260 Average SAP- 74.7

24. Thank you jonesp@cf.ac.uk