1. Simulation of Present-Day Climate in the Caribbean using PRECIS RCM M Mr. Arnoldo Bezanilla Marlot

2. SIMULATION OF THE PRESENT-DAY CLIMATE IN THE CARIBBEAN USING PRECIS RCM. Abel Centella Arnoldo Bezanilla Israel Borrajero Daniel Martinez Institute of Meteorology, Cuba 2 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

3. SIMULATION OF THE PRESENT-DAY CLIMATE IN THE CARIBBEAN USING PRECIS RCM. Abel Centella Arnoldo Bezanilla Israel Borrajero Daniel Martinez Institute of Meteorology, Cuba 3 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

4. OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION What is PRECIS? Simulating Present-Day Climate in the Caribbean using PRECIS. How well does PRECIS represent the Caribbean Climate? PRECIS and Tropical Cyclones. Preliminary results PRECIS-CARIBE Online Access to PRECIS Output What have we done, future plans. Summary 4 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

5. 5 Regional Climate Modeling (I) The main goal of regional climate models (RCMs) is to reproduce the main climatic features in complex terrain, where mesoscale forcing becomes important (Giorgi and Mearns, 1991) and coarse-resolution global climate models (GCMs) are not sufficient for assessing local climate change (Aldrian et al. 2004). Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

6. 6 Regional Climate Modeling (II) An example of a region where present-generation GCMs are especially lacking in their ability to represent complex terrain and land-sea contrasts is the Caribbean zone. In this region, tropical and extra-tropical systems interact (Alfonso and Naranjo, 1996) and frequently produce complex meteorological conditions. The sea-breeze circulation in islands and peninsulas favors the development of convective systems (Riehl, 1979). In such a complex meteorological situation, a high-resolution model is necessary for meaningful regional climate prediction Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

7. 7 PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies) Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007 A Regional Modelling System derived from Hadley Centre GCM Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies PC-based regional climate model It can be set up and run over any area PRECIS is freely available It has two resolutions ~25 km and ~50 km PRECIS is a tool for dynamical downscaling

8. Simulating Present-Day Climate in the Caribbean using PRECIS 1.Quasi-observed climate PRECIS forced by ECWRF Reanalysis ERA15 (RCM ERA) 2.PRECIS driven by HadAM3 control run (RCM CTRL) 3.Climate Research Unit database was used as observed climate (CRU OBS) RCM ERA and RCM CTRL are identical apart from their driving data. 8 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

9. How well does PRECIS represent the Caribbean Climate? RCM ERA and RCM CTRL were compared with CRU OBS RCM ERA and RCM CTRL biases were also compared Temperature and Precipitation for land areas only PRECIS land sea mask 9

10. TEMPERATURE RCM CTRL- CRU OBS 10

11. PRECIPITATION RCM CTRL- CRU OBS 11

12. RCM CTRL- CRU OBS Temperature and Precipitation seasonal cycle for Cuba Warm and dry biases are evident in RCM CTRL simulation Greater biases occur over Cuba and other islands The dry biases are more intense in summer 12 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

13. TEMPERATURE RCM ERA- CRU OBS 13

14. PRECIPITATION RCM ERA- CRU OBS 14

15. RCM ERA- CRU OBS Temperature and Precipitation seasonal cycle for Cuba Warm and dry biases also exist in RCM ERA simulation Greater biases occur over Cuba and other islands The dry biases are more intense in summer 15 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

16. Partial conclusions There consistency beetwen CTRL and ERA biases suggest the RCM model don’t capture very well some of the mesoscale process. The significant summer dry biases observed in both simulations motivate further analysis of convective process. Comparisons with GCM outputs are also needed to assess the improvement that PRECIS could produce. 16 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

17. Cyclone representation is a potential tool for: Investigate and assess the Model ability to represent this type of event. Investigate or project future TC behavior in the area The Frequency of tropical cyclones in the Caribbean and Mexico as show in Regional Climate Model simulations 17 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

18. TCLVs detection methodology It is designed to work with daily mean fields On a grid of 0.44 o (50 km), a point of minimum in surface pressure is sought so that the averaged pressure over a circumference of 6 o (700 km) centered in the point is at least 5.5 hPa greater than in the point. The difference between the maximum and minimum values of the wind speed in a neighborhood of 3 grid points radius (1.3 o or 150 km) centered in the point of minimum pressure must be at least 40 km/h (11 m/s). The end of the track of each individual vortex occurs when in two consecutive days, the points of two consecutive TCLV position are located at a mutual distance of more than 7 o (800 km). The above criteria were adjusted in practice by trial and error based on a detailed visual analysis of selected animated image sequences in the output of the model. 18 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

19. 19 S N EW

20. 20 Historical North Atlantic and East-Central North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks, 1851-2005 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

21. 21 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

22. 22 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

23. 23 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

24. Partial conclusions The projected increase in temperature in Eastern Pacific near the coast of Mexico and the smaller increase projected for Western Tropical Atlantic seem to be consistent with a greater projected increase of TCLVs for Eastern pacific. 24 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

25. The method allow us to identify possible change in tropical cyclone activity, but: More experiments are needed Add new fields to be used in the detection criteria. Specify the definition of TCLV based on daily means of surface parameters using the criteria defined by Walsh et al. for instant(hourly mean) observations in a limited run of the model. Adjust a theoretical Cyclone Model to obtain hourly values of main TCLV parameters from the mean daily fields. Validate the definition using the adjustment to climatologic data. Analyze the dependence of TCLVs on projected temperature and wind shear projections. 25 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

26. PRECIS (Sharing Results) 26 http://precis.insmet.cu/Precis-Caribe.htm PRECIS-CARIBE: Online Access to Climate Change Scenarios in the Caribbean. Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

27. PRECIS (Sharing Results) 27 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

28. PRECIS (Outputs) 28 Two Kind of format for Data Download: NetCDF y ASCII Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

29. PRECIS (Outputs) 29 Examples for small island countries Grid results over Haiti Grid results over Jamaica Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

30. PRECIS (What have we Done) 15 Years Reanalysis (1979-1993) 2 B1 30 Years Baseline Ensembles (Control Experiments) 1960-1990 (S) 3 A2 30 Years de future scenarios 2070-2100 (S). B2 30 Years de future scenarios 2070-2100 (S). 30 As part of a very prominent collaborative initiative between 5C, INSMET and UWI Jamaica and Barbados Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

31. PRECIS (At this moment & upcoming work) ECHAM4 50km Control 1960-1990 31yrs A21990-2100 114 yrs B21990-2100 114 yrs ERA40 with sulphur cycle 50km Observed 1957-2002 45yrs SRES Control hourly with sulphur cycle 50km 1960-1969 10 yrs HadCM3 perturbed parameter ensemble members (50km) 1 High & 1 Low 150 Years 31 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

32. PRECIS (upcoming work) HadCM3 perturbed parameter ensemble members (50km) 1 High & 1 Low 150 Years 32 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

33. Obtain and Use our own scenarios for climate change To share the obtained results with all the scientific community, and stakeholders. The improvement of the Collaboration in the Caribbean Using the outputs to feed other numeric models (Hydrological, Crops models, etc ) The investigation of the extreme events in the future (strength, duration, frequency, season shifting, etc ) 33 () PRECIS ( Possibilities ) Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

34. PRECIS (Summary) Improvements on the Precis-Caribe Web Site, Languages, outputs added for another scenarios (HadCM3-B2) and another GCM (ECHAM4 A2 and B2 scenarios). Define whether to make daily data available. Add some specific variables, another domain (high res Scenario for West Indias). Work more Deeply in the analysis and validation of the outputs. ERA40 Data. 34 Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007

35. Thanks !!!! 35 Contacts PRECIS Group in Cuba Abel Centella abel.centella@insmet.cuabel.centella@insmet.cu Arnoldo Bezanilla arnoldo.bezanilla@insmet.cuarnoldo.bezanilla@insmet.cu Israel Borrajero iborajero@met.inf.cuiborajero@met.inf.cu PRECIS Online Access http://precis.insmet.cu/Precis-Caribe.htm Email: precis.insmet@insmet.cuprecis.insmet@insmet.cu Climate Change Impacts on the Caribbean, UWI Mona, Jamaica, June 15,17-2007