1. Experience you can trust. Phase 1: Cataloguing Available End-Use and Efficiency Load Data September 15, 2009 End-Use Load Data Update Project

2. 2 Agenda  Project Objectives  Determining usability of data  Summary of promising studies  Gap analysis  Transferability ratings  Prioritization of near-term activities  Next steps

3. 3 Project Objectives 1. Research and inventory existing load shape data available 2. Determine data attributes necessary to meet needs of energy efficiency, capacity markets and air quality 3. Identify weaknesses and gaps in existing available data 4. Evaluate transferability and applicability of load shape data to the Regions 5. Provide road map for meeting short term and long term end-use metering needs

4. 4 Develop list of end-use categories  Break down end-uses into “Analysis Groups”  Analysis Groups intended to include measure savings shapes, as well as end use shapes

5. 5 Data Search Objectives:  Identify relevant studies that conducted field studies (metering) of end uses/measures (Analysis Groups)  Collect enough information on associated “data properties” to assess usability Activities:  Web survey of 102 industry contacts  List of studies identified in California (2006 Load Shape Update Initiative)  Follow up with contacts to collect data properties

6. 6 Data Search - Challenges  Key challenges to data search: – Difficult to engage industry contacts to share relevant studies they are aware of – Even when proper survey contact identified - contact did not typically have detailed information on data properties (e.g. vintages of equipment metered, NAICS/SIC codes of facilities)

7. 7 Data Search - Results  110 studies identified, across three general types: – Load research – Evaluation – Compilation  List of “Promising Studies” – high level review – Sample size – Vintage of studies (2000 or more recent) – Studies that developed load profiles

8. 8 Defining Usability of End Use Data  Interviews with stakeholders from energy efficiency, capacity markets and air quality  Energy efficiency and greenhouse gas reporting have similar requirements – Statistically valid sample design – Unbiased data collection procedures – Reasonable Baseline definitions  ISO/RTO Capacity Markets add a Prescriptive Layer – Specific Relative Precision Requirements – Specific Metering Requirements

9. 9 Defining Usability of End Use Data Ratings:  A – Meets capacity market standards, usable as stand alone study within region  B – Meets efficiency planning standards, usable as part of a compilation study  C – Has some issues, could be used as a last resort or to guide modeling efforts  IP – Study is currently in progress

10. 10 Summary of Promising Studies Pacific Northwest

11. 11 Summary of Promising Studies Pacific Northwest  Three studies rated a B - one old load research with diminishing sample, other targeted thermostat study with small sample and ELCAP.  Three promising studies in progress – Most promising = BC Hydro Power Smart Residential End Use Study  No promising non-residential studies identified

12. 12 Summary of Promising Studies Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, California Regions  Eastern: 18 Promising Studies identified – Non-Residential studies were all program evaluation studies that had smaller sample sizes – Seven Residential studies primarily Lighting some HVAC, appliance and water heating  Mid-Atlantic: 2 studies with large sample sizes but all demand response participants  California: 10 studies, including DEER as roll-up of many studies covering almost all end uses

13. 13 Gap Analysis

14. 14 Gap Analysis Overview  Gap Analysis developed end use analysis group level sample size data  Sample size data includes studies that have not yet been completed or fielded and results could change dramatically if plans change  Some studies are included under the end use analysis group that have no sample size data

15. 15 Data Availability – Pacific Northwest Residential

16. 16 Gap Analysis – Pacific Northwest Non-Residential  Only one non-residential study identified – Limited Hourly Metering Pilot (BPA): Only 3 sites metered  ALL non-residential end uses have a high need for data

17. 17 Transferabilty of Data from Other Regions

18. 18 Is end use data readily transferable?  We establish a general rating system for transferability of end use analysis groups  Criteria evaluated were – Potential for schedule variability between regions – Potential for weather variability between regions  Assumed that saturation of energy efficient equipment could be decoupled  Implicitly addressed regional variations in construction practices

19. 19 General Transferability - Residential  Schedule Variability – Low is better  Weather Variability – Low is better  Transferability Rating - High is better

20. 20 General Transferability – Non-residential

21. 21 Prioritization of Load Shape Activities

22. 22 Relative importance of end use and measure load shapes (Analysis Groups)  Developed an end use Analysis Group Importance Level Rating system using – Input from RTF subcommittee and EMV Forum – Web survey respondent importance rankings – CA 2006-08 EE portfolio percentages – CT Market potential study percentages  Rating system as follows – Tier 1 – Most Important, high % of savings & high need – Tier 2 – Moderately Important, moderate % of savings and/or need – Tier 3 – Lower Importance, lower % of savings

23. 23 Load Shape Development Activities - Overview  Generally there are five options that could be followed – Option 1 - Combine existing end use studies of common measure types into meta studies within regions – Option 2 - Look to transfer meta studies from other regions to fill in gaps within a region – Option 3 - Work to develop database for regionally customized DOE Models using (DEER) as starting point – Option 4 – New metering – Option 5 – Do nothing, end use unimportant at this time

24. 24 Strategies to Improve End Use Data

25. 25  Underlying assumption: Where no existing end use data, near term priority activities will be directed first at Tier 1 end use groups  Where data available – Option 1 and 2 (if transferable)  Where no data – Option 2 or 3 (if transferable)  Where no data – Option 4 (if not transferable)  That Option 5 “do nothing” is viable near term for the end use analysis groups that had no metering activity Load Shape Development Activities - Overview

26. 26 Near-term Activities – Pacific Northwest Residential (Tiers 1 and 2)

27. 27 Near-term Activities – Pacific Northwest Residential (Tier 3)

28. 28 Near-term Activities – Pacific Northwest Non-Residential End Use Groups with “high” transferability Utilize data sources from other regions

29. 29 Near-term Activities – Pacific Northwest Non-Residential Recommended new metering

30. 30 Conclusions and Recommendations Near-term (up to 12 months)  Support useful studies in progress: – BC Hydro Power Smart Res End Use Study – large end use research study in planning stages  Ensure that smaller studies (e.g. evaluation studies) collect necessary information – Consistent protocol for load shapes can ensure that small studies collect necessary ancillary data to be compiled  Evaluate whether some ELCAP data still usable – Focus new research on identifying which ELCAP data can be leveraged

31. 31 Conclusions and Recommendations Mid-term (1-3 years)  Implement multi-region end-use data repository  Plan other study types (non-metering) to support transfer of data from other regions – Saturation studies (typical building characteristics, inventory of system types and efficiencies)  Assess feasibility of disaggregating end-use information from AMI whole-premise data – Identify utilities open to partnership opportunities

32. Experience you can trust. Betty Seto Project Manager KEMA 510-891-0446 x4133 Betty.Seto@kema.com Further questions or comments? Steve Carlson Senior Principal Consultant KEMA 860-346-5001 x207 Steve.Carlson@kema.com