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Current Status and Climatological Evolution of the 2010-2013 Drought Michael Hayes, Director National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln Xiaomao Lin, KS State Climatologist Kansas State University Photo: Xiaomao Lin, Tribune, KS, March 2013
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Outline Temporal and spatial context U.S. Drought Monitor Current status Kansas State Climatologist Next talk: Doug Kluck Summer 2013 High Plains Drought Outlook and Assessment Forum July 24, 2013 Colby, Kansas Photo: Xiaomao Lin, Tribune, KS, March 2013
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Advantages of percentiles: –Can be applied to most parameters –Can be used for any length of data record –Puts drought in historical perspective Percentiles and the U.S. Drought Monitor D4, Exceptional Drought: once per 50 to 100 years D3, Extreme Drought: once per 20 to 50 years D2, Severe Drought: once per 10 to 20 years D1, Moderate Drought: once per 5 to 10 years D0, Abnormally Dry: once per 3 to 5 years Courtesy: Brad Rippey, USDA
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Continental U.S., Percent in Drought January 2000 to March 2013 Courtesy: Brad Rippey, USDA D0 D1 D2 D3 D4
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High Plains Region, Percent in Drought January 2000 to March 2013 Plains Drought, 2001-2005 Plains Drought, 2006-2008 D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 Courtesy: Brad Rippey, USDA
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2011 Drought Impacts NCDC: total direct losses to crops, livestock, and timber = $12 billion NCDC: losses from wildfires in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas exceeds $1 billion Largest wildfires in history in both New Mexico (Las Conchas) and Arizona (Wallow) Texas: Bastrop County fire Labor Day Weekend destroyed 1,625 homes and caused $325 million in insured losses
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Drought Impact Reporter http://droughtreporter.unl.edu
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2012 Drought Impacts Economic loss estimates $30 billion, NCDC Crop indemnities: $17 billion 2011 the previous record with $10.8 billion Fires Colorado
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Courtesy: Brad Rippey, USDA
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Courtesy: Marty Hoerling et al., NOAA, 2013
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Drought Impact Reporter http://droughtreporter.unl.edu
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Drought Impact Reporter http://droughtreporter.unl.edu
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Courtesy: Brad Rippey, USDA
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Courtesy: Kansas Water Office, Weekly Drought Update, July 19, 2013
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Courtesy: Xiaomao Lin, Kansas State University
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How Much Water Vapor in Kansas Air ( 2m ) Courtesy: Xiaomao Lin, Kansas State University
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Water Anomaly in Air ( 2m ) in June 2012 and 2013 Courtesy: Xiaomao Lin, Kansas State University
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How Much Water in Kansas Soil (0-10cm) Courtesy: Xiaomao Lin, Kansas State University
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Water Anomaly in Soil ( 2m ) in June 2012 and 2013 Courtesy: Xiaomao Lin, Kansas State University
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Southwest Kansas Available Water (Garden City) How much water demand for our irrigation? Courtesy: Xiaomao Lin, Kansas State University
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Western and Central Kansas Drought Indices during Past 118 Years (1895 to 2012) Western and Central Kansas Drought Indices during Past 118 Years (1895 to 2012) Courtesy: Xiaomao Lin, Kansas State University
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Summary A relatively wet period preceded the current dryness that the region is experiencing Southern Kansas and southeastern Colorado are in their 3 rd year of drought; the rest of Kansas, Nebraska, and Colorado are in their 2 nd year of drought Improvements in 2013 in the eastern Corn Belt Little improvement west of the Missouri River Livestock sector continues to be hit hard
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Photo: Xiaomao Lin, Tribune, KS, March 2013 Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center mhayes2@unl.edu http://drought.unl.edu Xiaomao Lin Kansas State xlin@ksu.edu
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