1. 1 National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Status Brief for ESMF Steven Payne December 17, 2008 NUOPC

2. Potential Benefits A National System to focus on National Needs Accelerated improvement of a National Weather Operational Prediction Capability –Forecast Accuracy –Quantified Forecast uncertainty Improved agency capability to drive downstream applications Increased efficiency through use of shared resources Better operational backup Enhanced research coordination Response to GAO, FCMSSR and DoD IG recommendations 2

3. 3 NUOPC Update 2005 - Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary operational NWP 2006 - Reviewed opportunities and alternatives; selected coordinated Global NWP as initial focus area 2007 - Developed initial concepts and project plan for NUOPC –Dialog with Stakeholders March, 2007 –Approved by Tri-Agency principals group (DOC US for Ocean and Atmospheres, AF/A30-W, and Navy N84) 2008 – Appointed Project Manager –Executing NUOPC Phase I –ESG approved interim committee chairmen –Second dialog with Stakeholders April, 2008 –Initiated interim committee process May, 2008

4. 4 NUOPC Implementation Schedule FY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Prelim Phase I Implementation Phase II FOC Beta Test Phase III STAFFING CODE CONV. MGMT REPORTG MOA INIT.STANDARDSSOFTWARE CONVERSION OPERATIONS OUTREACH MAINTAIN Full Staff Common Rqmts, Rsch AgendaDTC/VTC ENS OPS TESTCONOPS, COMMS, IA DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALSEXTERNAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP FOC Quarterly Updates to Principals STANDARDS PARTICIPATION TT PM, TEMPS IOC-2 IOC-1 PROTOTYPE OPS

5. 5 Air Force (A3O-W) Dr. Lewis Air Force (A3O-W) Dr. Lewis Navy (CNO N84) RADM Gove Navy (CNO N84) RADM Gove NOAA (Administrator) VADM Lautenbacher NOAA (Administrator) VADM Lautenbacher Executive Steering Group NUOPC Project Manager - Fred Toepfer Deputy Project Manager - TBD NUOPC Project Manager - Fred Toepfer Deputy Project Manager - TBD John Zapotocny Brian Moore John Zapotocny Brian Moore Kim Curry Steve Payne Kim Curry Steve Payne Joel Cline Jeremy Potter Joel Cline Jeremy Potter Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA) Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA) Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) & RDML David Titley (CNMOC) Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) & RDML David Titley (CNMOC) Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) & Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR) Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) & Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR) Technology Transition Process Marc Hidalgo Technology Transition Process Marc Hidalgo Agency Liaisons Agency Liaisons Interim Committees Interim Committees Common Model Architecture Scott Sandgathe Common Model Architecture Scott Sandgathe Unified Ensemble Operations Mike Clancy Unified Ensemble Operations Mike Clancy NUOPC Staff Paul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William O’Connor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley NUOPC Staff Paul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William O’Connor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley NUOPC Management Structure Executive Secretary CAPT Michael Angove LCDR Kurt Zegowitz Executive Secretary CAPT Michael Angove LCDR Kurt Zegowitz

6. 6 Expectations NUOPC is an agreement between the three operational production facilities to accelerate technological advances and improve efficiency through collaboration. Every attempt should be made to avoid significant disruption of the operational centers or to impede developmental headway. A major objective of NUOPC is to entrain the broader research and development community into supporting research critical to the success of the operational centers.

7. 7 Interim Committees Three designated committees: – Common Model Architecture Committee – Technical Transition Process Committee – Unified Ensemble Operations Committee Potential additional panels include Technical Transition and Information Assurance. Interim Committees will be split into attending members and review members in order to reduce travel and impact on members and also address FACA concerns. Interim committees only operate during Phase I. Permanent committees chartered in Phase II to maintain, evolve standards, monitor compliance.

8. 8 Committee Membership Chairman from NUOPC staff or operational center Primary input from operational centers, agency R&D activities Broad community participation via coordination and review membership Working level knowledge but able to represent constituency NUOPC staff responsible for meeting minutes, draft reports, schedule

9. 9 Interim Committee Membership Committee Focus Common Model ArchitectureTechnical Transition Processes Unified Ensemble Operations Membership ChairmanScott SandgatheMarc HidalgoMike Clancy Agency RepSteve Payne NUOPC staffWilliam O’ConnorFran BiekerPaul Demmert AFWADan SedlacekKen SmithSteve Rugg Tommy Sanders FNMOCJeff LernerMark SwensonJudy Pavina Mike Sestak NOAAMark Iredell Tom Black John WardZoltan Toth TBD (Kyger) NRLJim Doyle Melinda Peng Pat PhoebusJim Hansen ONR1Dan Eleuterio OAR1Julian Wang NCARCecelia DeluccaBob Gall NASAMax Suarez FAA11 NSF1 Other Fed (DOE, DOT, etc.)Lars Peter Riishojgaard (JCSDA)2 TOTAL1312

10. 10 Common Model Architecture Committee Task: Develop common architecture (ESMF) and coding standards as necessary to accelerate transition of research and avoid unnecessary duplication of effort. Agree to ESMF architecture, degree and detail of implementation. Agree to additional software or hardware standards required to promote interoperability. Minimize disruption to operational centers and existing development efforts. Estimate cost and time to implement.

11. 11 Committee Issues - CMA Standard Model Architecture - ESMF –How deep to implement? –How to resolve & align present NRL/EMC approaches –NASA MAPL and European OASIS? Standard model structure Unified coding standards (i,j,k, etc.) Exchangeable model technology at component level Standard ensemble prediction infrastructure Standard I/O interfaces Standard model metadata Cost & time to implement

12. 12 Technology Transition Process Committee Task: Align agency transition processes to streamline certification of new technology and reduce duplicative recertification among the Tri-Agencies. Define common operational needs and translate to common requirements Develop a common research agenda and direction Develop the VTC/DTC/VSP CONOPS –Funding, support, security, etc. Align agency processes to transition new technology to operations

14. 14 Committee Issues - TTP DTC/VTC/VSP –At center, at other site, multiple locations, virtual, what support, common metrics, etc., etc. Common research agenda (requirements, agenda, investment) –How do we get requirements from the three agencies? How to we merge the list? How do we turn requirements into a research agenda? How do we get resource sponsors to sign up to fund agenda? Aligned transition process –What is important to align? How will it improve life? Info assurance –How do we guarantee code is not corrupt? –How do we meet agency code release requirements and still give broad community access? Cost & time to implement

15. 15 Unified Ensemble Operations Committee Task: Develop a unified ensemble operational concept (CONOPS) to allow reliable production and exchange of ensemble products. Identify unified ensemble operations requirements including: –Standard output format –Ensemble configuration –Product delivery schedule –Process for assembly and dissemination –Common post processing, if appropriate –Network security –Coordinated software update cycle –Data archival processes (who, what, where, how) –Communications, bandwidth and hardware acquisition Estimate cost and time to implement

16. 16 Committee Goals Minimize operational center disruption Achieve common architecture objectives while sustaining developmental headway Achieve full stakeholder support Develop well-defined standards that will focus research community participation and accelerate development Develop standards and methodology that can evolve with changing technology Operational centers involved up front (primary stakeholders)

17. 17 Schedule & Deliverables Membership approved June-July 2008. Initial meetings summer 2008 Draft final report for external coordination March 2009. Revised committee reports for Agency coordination May 2009. Internal Agency approval June 2009. ESG Approval August 2009.

18. 18 Launching NUOPC Phase I 1FY08 2FY08 3FY08 4FY08 1FY09 2FY09 3FY09 4FY09 Phase I Tasks Begin Phase II Implementation IOC-1 PM & Staff Review Interagency Review & Coord Committee Tasks Decision Brief to Principals StaffESG Approval Draft Standards Reports Budget, IPLAN, CONOPS PM & Staff integrate Committee task results Review committees’ progress Coord Nominate Establish Committees Committees/Panels work tasks Follow up Apr 08 Sep 09 Committee Reports to PM & Staff Apr 08Jul 08Oct 08Jan 09Apr 08