1. PACS 4500 Senior Seminar in Peace and Conflict Studies Section 001 Guy Burgess

2. Reading Reflections / D2L Grades  Level of Effort  Number of Points  Evidence of Having Done the Readings  Personal Reflections  Timeliness

3. State Department

4. Complex Problems

5. Inequality Problems at the Top – Assortative Mating – The Super Star Effect – Money Addiction/Boundless Greed – Others? Problems the Bottom – Single Parenting – Crimes/Incarceration Rates – Unemployment History – Low Educational Expectations – Scarcity-Afflicted Thinking – Others? Systemic Problems – Automation – Kludgeocracy – Reserve Army of the Unemployed – Zero-Some Mentality – Matthew’s Law – Stress Limits on Compassion – Under-Performing Schools – Lance Armstrong Effect – Others

6. All Big Problems Are Complex Problems

7. Wire These Problems So Intractable ?

8. Complex Adaptive Systems

9. General Systems Theory Levels of Systems Kenneth Boulding, “Skeleton of Science”  Framework  Clockwork  Throughput  Feedback  Cellular  Botanical  Zoological  Psychological  Social Complicated Systems Complex Systems

10. Evolutionary Roots As Toolmakers

11. Complicated Systems Mechanical Metaphor- based

12. Complicated Systems http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ve4M4UsJQo

13. Directed from Washington Model

14. Complicated “Chain of Command”

15. General Systems Theory Levels of Systems Kenneth Boulding, “Skeleton of Science”  Framework  Clockwork  Throughput  Feedback  Cellular  Botanical  Zoological  Psychological  Social Complicated Systems Complex Systems

16. Organic Systems and Metaphors

17. Mermeration http://vimeo.com/31158841

18. Non-Human Eco-Systems https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_Bx1mdVMyc

19. Human Eco-Systems http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2013/06/10/190468911/the-most-dangerous-traffic-circle-in-the-world

20. Characteristics of Complex Systems  Multitudes of independent actors each seeking to advance their own self-interest based on their image of their environment and their problem-solving algorithm  Such systems are evolve and are not designed  There are no control points

21. Ecodynamics

22. NOT Environmental Correctness

23. Evolutionary Features  Creation processes  Propagation/reproduction processes  Selection processes  Everything evolves

24. Ecosystems Don’t Care  Individuals care – things that are bad for some individuals are undoubtedly better for others

25. Components of Creation  Energy  Materials  Information  Physical structure of matter  DNA -- biogenetics  Learned behavior -- noogenetics

26. Physical evolution

27. Biological evolution  Species  Behaviors  Structures

28. Biological Ecodynamics  Mutation  Selection  Niche  Relationships  Mutualism  Commensalism  Amensalism  Competition  Antagonism (Predation, Parasitism)  Neutralism http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_interaction

29. Darwin and Smith

30. Social Eco-dynamics  Things that evolve  Social roles  Human artifacts  Ideas  Behaviors  Everything

31. Social Eco-dynamics  Evolution of information (Quincy Wright)  Language  Writing  Printing  Digital information

32. Evolutionary Tracks

33. Competing Tracks Free world Power with democracy (small “d”) Invisible hand Compassionate Slave world Power over Tyranny Invisible fist Selfish

34. Evolutionary Actors Grassroots citizens

35. Selection/De-selection Determinants  Situational awareness  Analytical capabilities  Collaborative capabilities  Ability to avoid “traps” (attractors)  Tragedy of the Commons  Extreme destructive escalation  Unrealized opportunities for collaboration  Misunderstanding of the facts  Misunderstanding of others

36. Metaphors: Herding Cats? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pk 7yqlTMvp8 Moving Food Bowls?

37. Conductor vs. Improvisation Orchestra Model Jazz Band Model

38. Strategic Corporal

39. The E-Bay vs. Unity of Effort

40. Specialization, Division of Labor Massively Parallel Peacebuilding

41. Micro, Meso, Macro Peacebuilding Fractals

42. Remediality, Incrementalism Herbert Simon Charles Lindblom

43. Complicated vs. Complex Systems I Complicated Engineering View System Consciously Designed by Humans Complete Plans of the System Are Available Unified Command-and- control Structure Deterministic Complex Medical View System Evolved Through Processes of Natural and Social Selection No Plans Exist—Only Observational Studies and Theories Decentralized, Multiple Independent Actors Adaptive / Chaotic

44. Complicated vs. Complex Systems II Complicated Workings of all system components are understood Complete repair possible Applies to simpler, designed systems Space shuttle Computers Complex Workings of only some system components understood Only incremental fixes/improvements Applies to complex, real-world systems Medicine, Ecosystem management, Internet, Economy, Social conflict

45. Complicated vs. Complex Systems III Complicated All malfunctions can be troubleshooted and repaired (given sufficient funds and political will) Complex Some problems (pathologies/diseases) can be diagnosed and treated, others cannot— treatment varies from: Complete Cure Symptomatic Relief No Successful Treatment -- Chronic Condition -- “Live with It” No Successful Treatment -- “Terminal” Focus on the most threatening pathologies

46. Learning Accelerator