1. The Future of the Uplands: A Case Study of Agriculture and Biodiversity in the Peak District Paul Armsworth, University of Sheffield Szvetlana Acs, Martin Dallimer, Kevin Gaston, Nick Hanley, Phil Robertson, Dugald Tinch and Paul Wilson

2. Aims Importance of the uplands Case study and evidence base Effect of recent policy changes Likely impact of future policy choices Design of agri-environment schemes Public preferences for upland landscapes

3. Upland Ecosystems Important for biodiversity Important for ecosystem services Recognised in designation status Margins of agricultural productivity Limited production choices Rural deprivation Subsidy dependence Policies in flux

4. Evidence base Case study: Peak District National Park Historical documents Socioeconomic survey of farm businesses Ecological surveys of bird community and habitat quality Modelling of alternative policy scenarios Choice experiments and contingent valuation surveys with visitors and locals

5. Decreasing stocking rates Sheep numbers decrease with decoupling... But after 70 years of increase Loss of suckler cows

6. Increasing specialisation Switch to Single Farm Payment predicts: 2 from 4 mixed farm types become specialised History of increasing specialisation

7. Little abandonment With SFP and other schemes, most land remains in production More abandonment if core SFP support were to go

8. Farm labour Historical documents show no evidence of total labour reduction Technological improvement offset by increased production But significant labour reductions expected under decoupling

9. Farm incomes With onset of Single Farm Payment, net farm income increases on some properties and decreases on others

10. Farm incomes But depends on core support, other schemes (AES & HFA) and off-farm income to be viable Implications for biodiversity The design of AES

11. Public Support Choice experiments and CV surveys with locals and visitors  Visitors willing to pay for more conservative management, especially of moorland  Locals not

12. Conclusions Ongoing policy changes will have major implications for farming in the hills......and upland biodiversity Some changes reverse direction of long term trends (stocking rates). Others continue them (specialisation). Preferences vary between visitors and locals Visitors significant WTP for moorland conservation