1. China: 3 population projections to 2050 1.7 1.2

2. 20 th century China’s demographic transformation The Great Famine, 1959-61: 30 million deaths and 30 million lost birthsThe Great Famine, 1959-61: 30 million deaths and 30 million lost births The Demographic transition,The Demographic transition, The One child policy, female infanticide and the stabilization or decline of China’s populationThe One child policy, female infanticide and the stabilization or decline of China’s population

3. 20 th century China: reading history from a population pyramid (Judith Banister, China’s Changing Population (1987) The population pyramid: a record of birth, death, and migration over many decadesThe population pyramid: a record of birth, death, and migration over many decades 20 th century China: a “quasi-stable population” (fairly constant birth rates with fluctuating death rates) impacted by war and famine.20 th century China: a “quasi-stable population” (fairly constant birth rates with fluctuating death rates) impacted by war and famine.

4. Wide base = high fertility

5. Narrow base = low fertility

6. Corseted base = declining population

7. Japan 1995: 70 years of pop. history

8. China: Great famine 1958- 1960

9. 20 th century China: reading history from a population pyramid Stable, “natural” fertility—lower than in the west: “controlled” (Lee & Wang) or uncontrolled (Coale, Banister and Barclay)?Stable, “natural” fertility—lower than in the west: “controlled” (Lee & Wang) or uncontrolled (Coale, Banister and Barclay)? Effects of war and famine on fertilityEffects of war and famine on fertility Mortality remained high until 1950sMortality remained high until 1950s The Great famine of 1959-1961: 30 million deaths and 30 million lost birthsThe Great famine of 1959-1961: 30 million deaths and 30 million lost births

10. Controlled to uncontrolled (Lee/Wang, Fig. 7.4) or “naturally” lower? Lee & Wang’s Chinese demographic transition Western Europe’s demographic transition

11. “Stable” fertility –1940s Rising, 1947-1957 Secular decline, 1970-1980s

12. Total fertility rate (Lee and Wang, Table 6.1)

13. Age specific fertility rates reveals the transition to controlled fertility Judith Banister, China’s changing Population (Stanford, 1987)

14. Crude rates show the effects of the Great Leap Forward Famine

15. Effects of the Great Leap Forward Famine on Total Fertility Rate

16. Controlled to uncontrolled (Lee/Wang, Fig. 7.4) or “naturally” lower? Lee & Wang’s Chinese demographic transition Western Europe’s demographic transition

19. Rising female age at marriage, 1950- 81, by rural/urban residence

20. China: population pyramid, 2000 Narrow base shows fertility decline

21. Sex ratio by age and Census

23. Death rate measure 1981199019951999-2000 Male IMR, reported data 38.1228.2927.3721.98 Female IMR, reported data 36.1232.7736.2930.98 Normal female IMR 31.7723.5822.8118.32 Absolute excess female IMR 4.359.1913.4812.66 Percent excess female IMR 12%28%37%41% Excess Female Infant Mortality, 1981-2000 (infant deaths per 1,000 live births)

24. 1982: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14

25. 1990: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14

26. 1995: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14

27. 2000: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14

28. What causes the shortage of girls in China? 1.Poverty? No, some of China’s poorest areas have no missing girl problem. But economic considerations matter. 2.Political or economic system? No, compare international. 3.Illiteracy, low educational level? No, but ideas can matter. 4.Han Chinese culture? YES. Also a few minority nationality cultures. But not most, not Muslim cultures. 5.Low fertility? YES. Combined with son preference. 6.One-child policy? Maybe. Seems to worsen excess female infant mortality. Perhaps shortage of girls is more severe than without the one-child policy.

29. Current Policies to Combat Son Preference Laws giving girls and women equal rights with males.Laws giving girls and women equal rights with males. Propaganda and consciousness-raising slogans about the equal value and contributions of females and males.Propaganda and consciousness-raising slogans about the equal value and contributions of females and males. Laws outlawing infanticide, prenatal sex identification, and sex-selective abortion.Laws outlawing infanticide, prenatal sex identification, and sex-selective abortion. Policies in most provinces allowing rural couples to have two children, or a second child if the first is a girl.Policies in most provinces allowing rural couples to have two children, or a second child if the first is a girl. Some localities have preferential policies for couples with daughters but no son, for example modest social security guarantees for the parents.Some localities have preferential policies for couples with daughters but no son, for example modest social security guarantees for the parents.

30. China Sex Ratio in 2000 110 males per 100 females Effect of one-child policy

31. China Sex Ratio in 2025: 105 Effect of one-child policy

32. China Sex Ratio in 2000 & 2025: compared

33. China: 3 population projections to 2050 1.7 1.2