1. Gas in Namibia - Implications for the region
NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD
Roger Swart
NAMCOR
1st June 2005

2. Talk outline Namibia’s location Why gas? Namibia’s potential
Conventional resources
Unconventional resources
Implications for the region

3. NAMIBIA

4. Why gas? Increasing power demand in southern Africa
Fastest growing energy resource
70% increase from 2001 to 2025
Clean fuel
Cheaper, quicker construction
More efficient
U.S. & Europe - domestic supply dwindling
Significant reserves remain undiscovered

5. SAPP energy growth

6. South African Generation
Source: SA Department of Minerals and Energy, Integrated Energy Plan, 2003

7. Power generation in Europe

8. Power generation costs in Europe

9. U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Imports, 1970 - 2025 (trillion cubic feet)
Net Imports
History
Projections
Natural Gas Net Imports, 2002 and 2025
(trillion cubic feet)
2002
2025

10. Net U.S. Imports of Natural Gas, 1970-2025 (trillion cubic feet)
History
Projections
Liquefied Natural Gas
Canada
Mexico

11. Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, 1970-2025 (2002 dollars/thousand cubic feet)
8.44
Reference case
(nominal dollars)
1.55
1995
2025
Slow technology
5.10
Reference case
4.40
Rapid technology
3.80
History
Projections

12. Current US LNG terminals

13. Future US LNG terminals
Nearly all of the increase in net US imports is expected to come from LNG

14. Shipping route
c. 17 days sailing

15. Namibia’s potential www.namcor.com.na Namibe Walvis Lüderitz Orange
Kudu
Kunene
Lüderitz
Orange
Walvis
Namibe

16. Namibia’s potential Kudu Gas Field Proven 1.4 tcf
Considerable upside remains (~8tcf)
Advanced feasibility stage
800 MW CCGT in Namibia
Extend to 1600 MW later

17. Namibia’s potential Other Orange Basin Deeper water plays
Inboard plays; cf. South African portion
Source rock widespread

18. Namibia’s potential www.namcor.com.na Namibe Walvis Lüderitz Orange
Kudu
Kunene
Lüderitz
Orange
Walvis
Namibe

19. Block 1711 Originally licence held by Vanco
Since November 2004 under NAMCOR curatorship
Seeking partners
Large (>300 sq km) 4-way closure
High relief
Abundant DHI’s
Potentially large reserves

20. Regional Seismic Line

21. Source Syn-rift source Red Cuvo Fm/Bucomazi in Kwanza
Lacustrine, oil prone
Presently mature at predicted depth
Generation in last 20Ma

22. DHI’s Abundant Gas chimneys Hydrates Thermogenic gas shows Pock marks

23. Potential reserves www.namcor.com.na Vanco NSAI Kunene Oil Gas on Oil
Gas Condensate
Dry Gas
Oil (MMBO)
733
354
545 87
Gas (BCF)
720
3,857
3,520
5,801

24. Surface seeps

25. Unconventional Resources
Hydrates
Abundant in Block 1711
Excellent BSR’s
Sampled with drop cores
Partly thermogenic source
Also recognised in Lüderitz Basin

26. Hydrates

27. Unconventional resources
Hydrates
Business challenges
Lack of supporting infrastructure
Piggy back on conventional development in 1711?
What is total volume of gas in place?
What is total volume of gas recoverable?
What rates can we produce at?
Additional operating/maintenance expense?
Potentially a huge resource for region

28. Regional Implications
Gas potential of southern Africa high
Sufficient to satisfy some of the immediate energy demands of region
LNG market in Europe and USA to grow
West Africa well positioned
Projects will result in significant FDI
Positive impact on regional GDP growth

29. Thank you