1. ADAPTIVE CAPACITYof FISHERMEN of the URUGUAYAN COAST of the RIO de la PLATA, to HYDROCLIMATIC VARIABILTY and OTHER STRESSORS Norbis W, GJ Nagy, A Ponce, V Pshennikov, G Sención, R Silva and J Verocai DEPARTAMENTO DE ECOLOGIA - OCEANOLOGIA Facultad de Ciencias, UdelaR, Montevideo, Uruguay

2. THIS PRESENTATION AIMS TO DESCRIBE 1: RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ESTUARINE FRONT (EF) ENSO-RELATED VARIABILITY FISHERIES RESOURCE ARTISANAL FISHERIES WITHIN THE E.F. 2: THE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY CURRENT VULNERABILITY SUSTAINABILITY OF THE COASTAL FISHERY SYSTEM

3. ESTUARINE FRONT OF THE RIO DE LA PLATA

4. THE PROBLEM  An artisanal fleet exploits fisheries a few miles off the Uruguayan coast (in the estuarine front zone (EF) of the Río de la Plata (FIG. 1)  The location of the EF (therefore the accesibility of exploited resources) depends on ENSO-related variability of the river flow  Artisanal fishermen are highly vulnerable to both climate and non-climate constraints (regional economic crisis since 2001)  Coastal community has low adaptive capacity

5. Figure 1. Estuarine Front location a) Strong La Niña event (summer 99-2000) b)Neutral - Typical c)Moderate El Niño (winter 1987) d) Strong El Niño (Spring / Summer 2002 – 2003)

6. Evolution of SST & Salinty at Montevideo: ENSO events1998-2000

7. Extreme river-ward location of the EF (yellow): La Niña event (March 2000)

8. Seaward location of the EF (yellow): El Niño (October 2002)

9. CUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY: SOCIAL PROXY VARIABLES VULNERABILITY HIGHMODERATELOW FAMILY EDUCATION HOUSING EMPLOYMENT HEALTH SOCIAL ORGANIZATI0N X X

10. CUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY: ECONOMIC PROXY VARIABLES VULNERABILITY HIGHMODERATELOW BOATS ENGINES FISHING GEARS COMMUNICATION REFRIGERATION CATCH PRICES NET INCOME X XXXXXXXXXXXX X

11. CUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY: ENVIRONMENTAL PROXY VARIABLES VULNERABILITY HIGHMODERATELOW CLIMATE-ENSO WINDS STORM SURGES AND FLOODING RISK EUTROPHICATION HABITAT LOSS XXXX XXXX X

12. CUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY: LEGAL/INSTITUTIONAL PROXY VARIABLES VULNERABILITY HIGHMODERATELOW LAWS TERRITORIAL PLANNING COAST GUARD CONTROLS CONFLICTS WITH INDUSTRIAL FLEET CONFLICTS WITH NEIGHBOURS LEGAL ORGANIZATION XXXXXX XXXXXX

13. ANATOMY of the ADAPTATION to CLIMATE CHANGE & VARIABILITY 1. WHAT IS ADAPTATION ? 2. ADAPT TO WHAT ? 3. WHO ADAPTS ? 4. HOW DOES ADAPTATION OCCUR ? 5. HOW GOOD IS THE ADAPTATION ?

14. 1) WHAT IS ADAPTATION ? Process by which stakeholders involved in the Coastal Fishery System reduce the adverse effects of climate on their livelihood. This Process involves any passive, reactive or anticipatory adjustment of behavior and economic structure in order to increase sustainability and reduce vulnerability to climate change, variability and weather / climate extremes. (modified from Burton,1992; Smit, 1993; Smith, 1993; Stakhiv, 1993)

15. 2) ADAPT TO WHAT ? CLIMATIC STIMULI: ENS0 VARIABILITY 3) WHO ADAPTS ? COASTAL FISHERY SYSTEM

16. 4) HOW DOES ADAPTATION OCCUR ? THROUGH PROCESSES: EXTERNAL FORCINGS (RIVER FLOW CHANGES) AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE ESTUARINE FRONT VARIATIONS IN THE LOCATION OF MAIN RESOURCE (CROAKER)- >FISHERMEN MIGRATION OUTCOME: THIS EXAMPLE OF AUTONOMOUS ADAPTATION HAS BEING SUCCESFUL UNTIL 2002

17. 5) HOW GOOD IS ADAPTATION ? COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS

18. Long-term Fishermen Gross Income (from October (1) to September (12)

19. Daily fishing sorties Average weight of boxes (1 = 23 Kg) Fishing period 1998-99 32 36 31 35 39 40 19 57 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1-5 6-10 11-1516-2021-2526-31 1319 Clusters boxes Min Average Max Average

20. Pajas Blancas´ Fishing Scenarios Fleet = 30 boats Fishing period = 4 months ( rows 1,2,3); 3 months (4,5,6) ; 2 months (7,8,9) Days of effective fishing: ( 17 day/month (1,4,7); 12 d/m (2,5,8); 8 d/m (3,6,9) Performance Boxes/performance% boats # boats high46 boxes/day23 6.9 moderate38 boxes/day59 17.7 low 26 boxes/day18 5.4 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 123456789 Scenarios, boat productivity, fishing period and days Catch level max fishing period 98-99 Catch level low fishing period 98-99 tons

21. TOTAL ACCUMULATED BOXES (OBSERVED VS. MODEL ) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 16 1116212631364146515661 Number of fishing sorties (days) Boxes Obs Model OBSERVED = 923 BOATS SORTIED IN 64 DAYS – AVERAGE CATCH 22 NET BOXES MODEL= 640 BOATS SORTIED (10 BOATS PER SORTIE/DAY) - AVERAGE CATCH 20 NET BOXES PER SORTIE/BOAT

22. TOTAL ACCUMULATED BOXES (OBSERVED VS. MODEL) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 15913172125293337414549535761 Number of fishing sorties (days) Boxes Obs Model OBSERVED = 923 BOATS SORTIED IN 64 DAYS – AVERAGE CATCH 22 NET BOXES MODEL= 640 BOATS SORTIED (10 BOATS PER SORTIE/DAY) - AVERAGE CATCH 25 NET BOXES PER SORTIE/BOAT

23. 0 1 2 3 4 5 17131925313743495561 Sortied days Log IB boxes Sc 1 Sc 2 Sc 3 Sc 1 - 31 average boxes with 15 boats Sc 2 – Fishing period 98-99 Sc 3 - 40 average boxes with 31 boats “Pajas Blancas” Fishing Scenarios

24. Evolution of Salinty: El Niño 2002

26. CONCLUSIONS about ADAPTATION STRATEGIES ENSO EVENTS ARE RECURRENT AND ONCE SST ANOMALIES ARE KNOWN, ADAPTATION MEASURES SHOULD START EARLY WARNING IS POSIBLE A FEW MONTHS BEFORE PARTICIPATORY PROCESSES INVOLVING SCIENTISTS, MANAGERS AND FISHERMEN PARTICIPATION ARE NEEDED TO ALLOW ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT DIALOG AND COMMUNICATION NEED TO BE ENHANCED