1. Monitoring the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction : Proposed system of indicators and targets Kazuko Ishigaki Risk Knowledge Economist United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction 23-24 April 2014

2. The HFA Monitor 22 Core indicators in 5 Priorities for Action Priority 1: Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation. Priority 2: Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning. Priority 3: Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels. Priority 4: Reduce the underlying risk factors. Priority 5: Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels. 2

3. Are we achieving the HFA ? Gradual progress across all Priorities for Action Increasing physical damage and economic loss 3

4. Why do we need the new indicator system? Current HFA monitorProposed 1. Input rather than output focused Link input indicators to outputs and outcomes 2. Does not measure generation of new risks Measure not only risk reduction but also risk generation and resilience 3. Progress not related to risk levels of country Integrate risk levels in the system 4. Subjective, not allowing international benchmarking Objective, supporting peer to peer learning 4

5. Why do we need the new indicator system? Current HFA monitorProposed 5. Core indicators related to multiple policies and stakeholders: Unclear responsibility and accountability Refer to specific public policies, identifying stakeholders for each policy 6. No clear link to MDG and CC Provide clear links to SDGs and CC 7. Not used for supporting decision making Help countries identify weak policy area by facilitating systematic understanding of disaster risk mechanism 5

6. Examples: Input-Output-Outcome 6 EWS Development Policy Disaster Loss Reduction % of population coverage of EWS Awareness raising campaign Disaster Loss Reduction Housing retrofitting Housing relocation Sufficient coverage? Can all people evacuate? Behavior change? Housing not destroyed?

7. Architecture of indicator system under development Comprehensive DRM Policies Disaster Risk Underlying Drivers of Risk and Resilience Disaster Loss Disaster Impact 7 Resilience

8. Outcome level : Resilient societies for Sustainable Development Success Indicator: Decreasing loss over time (mortality, economic loss, physical loss) Data source: national disaster loss databases Sample global targets: X% reduction in mortality and economic loss in Y years (political decision) Linked: to SDG indicators and targets 8

9. Disaster Loss Database in GAR Universe LIELMIEUMIEHIEOthers*Total Africa51006 Americas069217 Asia163010 Europe00000 Oceania0763521 Total620185554 Note1: Others are the countries that income data is not registered in the World Bank Database and could not be classified by income. Note 2: The Indian states of Orissa and Tamil-Nadu are included in the list of 56 countries in GAR Universe. Asia: Indonesia, Iran (Islamic Rep. of), Jordan, Lao PDR, Lebanon, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Syrian Arab Rep., Vietnam, Yemen. 9

10. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 10 Post 2015 Millennium Development Goal framework 19 focus area: for example, poverty eradication; food security; health : education; gender; water; energy; equality; city and settlements; climate Not strong DRR integration at current proposal

11. Output level :Disaster risks managed Success Indicator: managed risks Data source: global probabilistic risk assessment (UN) Sample National targets: simplified disaster deficit index Extensive: Localised floods, landslides, fires, storms etc. Intensive: Major earthquakes, tropical cyclones 11

12. UNISDR’s Global Risk Model Hazard TypeGar 13Gar 15 OutputScaleOutputScale Earthquake AAL and PML 250 GlobalAAL and PML multiple Global Tsunami ExposureGlobalPML multipleGlobal Cyclones Winds AAL and PML 250 GlobalAML and PML multiple Global Storm surges --AAL and PML multiple Global FloodsRiver flood AALThailandAAL and PML multiple Global Ponding flood AAL and MPL 250 CaribbeanAAL and MPL multiple Tbc Volcanic Ash --ExposureGlobal 12

13. Output levels : Underlying risk and resilience Success Indicator: (1) healthy ecosystems; well managed urban development; reducing poverty and inequality, (2) hazard insurance penetration Data source: available global datasets (environment, poverty, urbanization, governance, infrastructure, trade and economic development) Sample national targets: X% reduction of population in poverty; Linked: to SDG and CC indicators and targets 13

14. Input level : Integrated Disaster risk management policies Risk Knowledge Reducing Risk Avoiding Risk Strengthening Resilience Risk Governance 14

15. 15 Clarifying responsibilities of each stakeholder (Examples) Public function protection Education Risk assessment and retrofitting of every schools Contingency planning at every schools Health Risk assessment and retrofitting of every hospitals and health care facilities Contingency planning Urban Development Risk proof urban infrastructures Risk proof building codes Finance Catastrophic insurance to protect public finance Support for hazard related property insurance to protect private assets

16. Critical infrastructure protection Eco-system degradation Water management Cascading effect (in global economy) Cascading effect (in relation with other hazard) Crop insurance 16 Examples of missing policies/issues in current HFA monitoring system

17. Input level : Disaster risk management policies Success Indicator: Effective DRM policies in place to support public sector, households and businesses. Wide array of policy indicators proposed as menu Data source: national multi-stakeholder monitoring Sample national targets: % of houses built according to seismic code; % of households with catastrophe insurance etc. 17

18. Implementing new indicator system Dashboard: each indicator family presented graphically highlighting progress towards targets Cluster analysis: groups of countries with similar challenges Periodicity of monitoring: every 4 years (suggested) linked to SDG periodicity 18

19. Timeline for development Q4 2013: design of system architecture and rationale (November 11 paper) Q1 2014: design of system architecture and rationale, Expert group meeting 1 (Vienna, 10 - 11 February); consultation to UN system and others, identification and testing of indicators 19

20. Timeline for development Q2 2014: Expert group meeting 2, pilot testing of indicator system, briefings at Regional DRR platforms Q3 and Q4 2014: Consultations at Prepcons for WCDRR Q1 2015: Adoption as part of post 2015 Framework for DRR 20

21. Monitoring system in the context toward post 2015 Framework for DRR Monitoring system development 2015: Post 2015 Framework for DRR/WCDRR 2014: Preparation Conferences + Regional Platforms HFA Elements and political process for reaching agreement on HFA Links to SDGs and UNFCCC 21

22. 22 Discussion points 1.Recommendations for HFA2 monitoring mechanism: (1)Is the proposed indicator system reasonable? (2)Suggest 3 to 5 recommendations for the improvement

23. 23 Discussion points 2. Resilience indicators: What should be the key indicators to monitor resilience? Identify 3 to 5 possible indicators.

24. 24 Discussion points 3.Target: (1)What kind of targets should we have at national level? Identify 3 to 5 possible national targets. (If time permits) (2) What kind of targets do we need to establish at global level?

25. Thank you very much Contact: Kazuko Ishigaki United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction Tel: +41 22 917 3460 ishigaki@un.org ishigaki@un.org