1. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net Ricardo Wilson-Grau in Rio de Janeiro 15 December 2010 An Outcome Mapping Learning Community Webinar

2. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net The fish soup development story Inspired by Monika Jetzin, Global Water Partnership, Hungary

3. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net Parents control Parents influence Parents contribute a bit Inputs or resources Parents get together fish, fresh vegetables, water, barley, spices, pot, source of heat Activities Mother or father carefully prepare and cook all the ingredients Output Children taste the most nourishing fish soup in the world Outcome Children consider the soup delicious and eat fish soup once a week for the rest of their lives Impact Children are healthy adults

4. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net The difference between simple and complex fish soups  Example adapted from Getting to Maybe, How the World Is Changed?, Frances Westley, Brenda Zimmerman, Michael Q. Patton, Random House Canada, 2006.  Inspired by the IDRC EcoHealth and Complexity study group, with special thanks to Andrés Sánchez. ?

5. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net A simple situation The relations of cause and effect are known. The parents follow the great grandmother’s recipe for fish soup. The quantity and nature of the ingredients are spelled out, as well as the order in how they should be combined. The parents do not need expertise although of course experience in cooking helps. If they follow the recipe they will produce basically the same soup week after week.

6. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net In the real world, the results can be much less certain. The great grandmother’s recipe is lost. Her recommended fish is not available in the market every week of the year. The family’s buying power varies from year to year. Children are different and change as they grow:  One becomes a vegetarian.  Another goes on a diet.  A third is simply rebellious. Outside factors and actors influence the children – school, TV, friends and so forth If only life were so simple!

7. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net In such a complex situation  The relationships of cause and effect are unknown until the outcomes emerges.  To produce a nutritious soup that their children will eat once a week for the rest of their lives, the recipe is less important than the parents’ relationships with each son and daughter, and theirs with their social environment.  More than cooking experience, parent’s must rely on their sensitivity to their children’s needs and their own creativity in the kitchen.  And they must accept uncertainty about the results.

8. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net When the organisation and its reality are substantially complex

9. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net Time Conventional thinking… Ricardo.Wilson-Grau@inter.nl.net ACTIVITIES OUTPUTS OUTCOMES IMPACT INPUTS Inspired by Jeff Conklin, cognexus.org

10. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net Time … clashes with relationships of cause and effect that are unknown ACTIVITIES OUTPUTS OUTCOMES IMPACT INPUTS Inspired by Jeff Conklin, cognexus.org Ricardo.Wilson-Grau@inter.nl.net

11. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net … clashes with relationships of cause and effect that are unknown OUTPUT OUTCOME INPUTS ACTIVITY INPUTS ACTIVITY INPUTS ACTIVITY INPUTS OUTPUT OUTPUT ACTIVITY OUTPUT OUTPUT OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME Time Ricardo.Wilson-Grau@inter.nl.net

12. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net Implications for Outcome Mapping

13. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net Simple situations

14. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net Simple situations

15. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net Simple situations

16. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net Simple situations Complex situations

17. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net Simple situations Complex situations

18. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net Simple situations Complex situations

19. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net Simple situations Complex situations

20. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net Simple situations Complex situations

21. ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net THANK YOU! Do you have questions or comments?