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Economic Research Service USDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook Agricultural Outlook Forum 2012 Edward W. Allen U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research.

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Presentation on theme: "Economic Research Service USDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook Agricultural Outlook Forum 2012 Edward W. Allen U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research."— Presentation transcript:

1 Economic Research Service USDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook Agricultural Outlook Forum 2012 Edward W. Allen U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service 202-694-5288 ewallen@ers.usda.gov

2 Economic Research Service U.S. Producer Prices Are High Corn Source: NASS, USDA

3 Economic Research Service More Acres Going to Corn and Wheat in 2012 280276

4 Economic Research Service Corn Price To Slip More Than Soy Corn Source: NASS, USDA

5 Economic Research Service Key Drivers of USDA Projections Expanding U.S. and world area and production U.S. corn yield recovers after 2 years below trend U.S. corn use for ethanol declines slightly China’s import demand uncertain. South America’s 2011/12 problems support U.S. 2012/13 demand prospects. Record World wheat supplies overhang the market. Economic Research Service

6 World Corn Production and Consumption Source: USDA

7 Economic Research Service U.S. Corn Area Up, Yields Fall For 2 Years Source: NASS, USDA

8 Economic Research Service World Corn Area Expanding Source: USDA

9 Economic Research Service Argentina: Corn Production Stagnates Million tons Million hectares Source: USDA

10 Economic Research Service Ukraine: Corn Production Skyrockets Million tonsMillion hectares Source: USDA

11 Economic Research Service U.S. Corn Yield Trend Source: NASS, USDA

12 Economic Research Service Crop year U.S. Ethanol: Corn Use to Decline Slightly Billion bushels Source: USDA Economic Research Service

13 Ethanol and RBOB Nearby Futures Prices Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures. Reformulate Gasoline Blend Stock (RBOB) Ethanol $0.85 2/16/12

14 Economic Research Service Weekly Ethanol Stocks Source: DOE-Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

15 Economic Research Service Ethanol Producer Net Returns Above Variable Costs / Spot prices Note: USDA-WAOB estimates based on USDA-AMS plant reports and DOE-EIA estimates and forecasts for natural gas and electricity prices. + 86 cents / gal. (11/23/11) - 14 cents / gal. (2/17/12)

16 Economic Research Service U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption Source: DOE-Energy Information Administration, Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) and Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal.

17 Economic Research Service China’s Soybean Import Growth Leads World Million tonnes Economic Research Service Source: USDA

18 Economic Research Service China: Data Issues Increase Uncertainty, Corn and Soymeal Feed and Residual Use Do Not Track Well With Swine Production Million tonnes Soybean Meal Source: USDA

19 Economic Research Service China’s High Corn Prices Support Imports

20 Economic Research Service U.S. Soybean Production Takes a Backseat, Drought Hits Brazil and Argentina in 2011/12 U.S. Argentina and Brazil Source: USDA

21 Economic Research Service Brazil: Double Cropping to Boost Corn Area With Soybeans 1000 hectares Harvested area Source: USDA

22 Economic Research Service South American October 1, Soybean Beginning Stocks Million Tonnes -8 million tons

23 Economic Research Service World Wheat Production and Consumption Source: USDA

24 Economic Research Service Record World Wheat Stocks Source: USDA

25 Economic Research Service Russia’s Wheat Yields Highly Variable Source: USDA

26 Economic Research Service Key Developments To Watch Soybean and corn crops currently growing in South America, Prices and weather ahead of U.S. spring planting, China’s soybean and corn import growth, Gas prices, gasoline consumption, and ethanol margins, Global macro-economic growth, U.S. dollar. Economic Research Service

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