1. Climate Change and Long-term Sustainability of Human Societies

2. Why the long view matters for Sustainability, Resilience, Policy Margaret C. Nelson, Arizona State University

3. Dynamics of climate, environment, society Presumptions about our past: climate challenge collapse Humans and all aspects of the global systems are integrally linked Tapping Our Understanding of the Past

4. Tradeoffs No absolute resilience to climate challenges

5. Uncertainty and Tradeoffs NORTH ATLANTIC Rare climate events have the greatest impact: directly and indirectly Successful short-term adaptation is no guarantee of long-term success SOUTHWEST US

6. Tradeoffs - Human Securities SOUTHWEST US Human securities inform understanding of life under different conditions No perfect achievement of human securities: they are dynamically traded off depending on decisions

7. Coupled Natural-Human Systems Climate impacts on social and political relations Climate change is inevitably a part of complex social adaptations and the evolution of social systems KURIL ISLANDS

8. Which climate changes matter? MIMBRES

9. Climate hazards and social longevity CARIBBEAN

10. The past does not provide predictions for future courses, but it provides examples, experiments of sorts, by which we can critically examine our ideas about resilience and sustainability.

11. Case studies NORTH ATLANTIC ISLANDS Andrew Dugmore (University of Edinburgh) and Scott Ingram (Arizona State University) SOUTHWEST US Michelle Hegmon (Arizona State University) KURIL ISLANDS Ben Fitzhugh (University of Washington) CARIBBEAN ISLANDS Jago Cooper (University College London) Discussion: Thomas McGovern (City University New York)