1. Activity-Based Models Why should agencies make the change? What are the benefits of activity models?

2. Climate Change Bill in CO legislature requiring more modelingBill in CO legislature requiring more modeling DRCOG board discussionsDRCOG board discussions More scenario planningMore scenario planning

3. Vision Phase Sensitivity to price and behavioral changesSensitivity to price and behavioral changes Modeling low-share alternativesModeling low-share alternatives Effects of development patterns on travel behaviorEffects of development patterns on travel behavior Effects of transportation system and system conditionEffects of transportation system and system condition Ability to evaluate policy initiativesAbility to evaluate policy initiatives Need for improved validity and reliabilityNeed for improved validity and reliability Reflect non-system policy changesReflect non-system policy changes Ability to show environmental effectsAbility to show environmental effects Better ability to evaluate effects on specific sub-groupsBetter ability to evaluate effects on specific sub-groups Better analysis of freight movementBetter analysis of freight movement

4. Scenario Modeling Expanded

5. Scenario Modeling Transportation inaccuraciesTransportation inaccuracies –Better access to transit –More transit use –Less driving –Less congestion –Cleaner air –Less spending on infrastructure

6. Scenario Modeling Land use inaccuraciesLand use inaccuracies –Less land consumption –More development in urban centers –More development downtown –More development around transit

7. TOD/FasTracks

8. Challenges of modeling walk and transit trips: TAZs

10. Specific Variables NameCoeffT-statNameCoeffT-stat Cost($)- Low Income-0.251-4.0WT-constant-3.935-5.3 Cost($)- Medium Income-0.119-3.7DT-constant-4.672-6.1 Cost($)- High Income-0.084-1.3DA,SR- Arrive at dest. in AM peak-0.995-4.0 Cost($)- Missing income-0.018-0.2DA,SR- Leave from dest. in PM peak-0.265-1.3 In-vehicle time (min)-0.020constrDA- Shopping stops/tours remaining0.8455.6 Transit walk time (min)-0.050-10.8SR-No car in HH5.0404.6 Transit first wait time (min,<=10)-0.050-10.8SR-HH cars >0, <workers1.3657.0 Transit other wait time (min)-0.030constrSR-HH cars>=workers, <adults0.5523.7 Walk mode time (min)-0.050-10.8SR-low income0.1671.1 Bike mode time (min)-0.071-6.3SR-high income-0.046-0.3 Drive access time/total IVT-1.431-4.5SR-missing income-0.104-0.4 Local bus time/total transit IVT-0.680-5.2SR-female0.5716.2 SR2-constant-2.902-28.0SR-Escort stops/tours remaining5.39026.5 SR3-constant-3.424-28.0SR-Other stops/tours remaining0.4948.5 BK-constant-3.400-5.1SR2-1 person HH-1.660-7.0 WK-constant-6.032-8.1SR3-1 person HH-2.454-6.8

11. Specific Variables NameCoeffT-statNameCoeffT-stat SR3-2 person HH-1.706-9.3DT-female0.6563.3 WT-No car in HH12.1608.8BK,WK-No car in HH9.7907.1 WT-HH cars >0, <workers5.09810.5BK,WK-HH cars >0, <workers3.0715.1 WT-HH cars>=workers, <adults2.3696.2BK,WK-HH cars>=workers, <adults1.5452.7 WT-low income0.3251.0BK,WK-low income0.3700.8 WT-high income-1.713-3.0BK,WK-high income-1.502-1.9 WT-missing income-0.630-1.1BK,WK-missing income0.5800.8 WT-origin intersection density6.8122.6WK-age over 50-0.791-1.7 WT,DT-destination intersection density11.3303.8WK-female-0.759-1.8 WT,DT-destination retail density0.2514.0BK-female-2.157-4.0 DT-No car in HH9.2155.9WK-Origin,destination mixed use density0.7382.9 DT-HH cars >0, <workers3.5086.2WK-Origin,destination intersection density8.5383.2 DT-HH cars>=workers, <adults1.5613.5BK-Origin,destination retail density0.1832.5 DT-high income-1.180-2.0BK-Origin,destination intersection density6.4501.9 DT-missing income-0.983-1.4Nesting parameter0.55511.5

12. Still Limiting Intra-household interactionIntra-household interaction Network microsimulationNetwork microsimulation

13. Thank you www.drcog.org Jen Malm jmalm@drcog.org303-480-5640 Erik Sabina esabina@drcog.org303-480-6789