1. ECOOP annual meeting 12-15 February 2008 Athens Ole K. Leth Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) Contribution to WP 4 (13 February 2008) – Modelling and forecasting system assessment. Standards, quality, functions T4.1 – Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

2. Overview 1.The questionnaires – A search for information on the regional model status 2.Main results obtained from the questionnaires: a. Basin wide/regional models – maps of regions where models are operating b. Regional model status at the start of ECOOP 3.Summary 4.What should we demand from the forecasting systems? – definition of common standards based on WP4, T4.1. Relevant for WP6: D4.4.1.1 (Mo16). Recommendation (to WP6) of regional forecasting system improvements according to common standards D4.4.2.1 (Mo22) Recommendation (to WP6) of regional system improvements according to product validation results WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

3. Structure of the questionnaires: a)Basic system design: i) Model name, type, grid ii) Types of forcings included: Wind, heat, freshwater, … b)System input: i) Initial condition fields used ii) Surface forcing fields used iii) Open boundary forcing fields used c)System features: i) Included submodels: Ice, biochemistry, … ii) Data-assimilation schemes, if applicable ”… For ECOOP WP4 the first important step is to gather information on existing forecasting systems - in order to come up with recommendations (e.g., to WP6) …” d)System products: i) Forecasted model parameters e)System validation: i) Data-validated model parameters f)System configuration: i) Forecasting lengths, run frequency, … ii) Computational platform WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

4. Results obtained from the questionnaires Regions covered by ECOOP: 1)North Sea 2)Baltic Sea 3)Iberian-Biscay-Irish Region 4)Mediterranean Sea 5)Black Sea Baltic Sea North Sea IBI Region Mediterranean Black WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

5. Results obtained from the questionnaires (continued): Baltic Sea Status at the start of ECOOP: 4 systems do 3D ocean forecasts (SMHI, BSH, FIMR and DMI) 4 (100% ) systems run operationally 2 (50%) systems apply data-assimilation 3 (75%) systems do validation of products (model output) 1 (25%) system has ecosystem model 2 (50%) systems do wave forecasting 3 (75% ) systems do ice forecasting 3 (75% ) systems do oil spill tracking and search and rescue 1 (25 %) system do forecast of sediment transports WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

6. Results obtained from the questionaries (continued): North Sea Status at the start of ECOOP: 3 systems do 3D ocean forecasts (MUMM, Met.no, PML) 3 (100% ) systems run operationally 1 (33%) system apply data-assimilation 2 (67%) systems do validation of products (model output) 2 (67%) systems have ecosystem models 1 (33%) system do wave forecasting 1 (33%) system do ice forecasting (Met.no) 2 (67%) systems do oil spill tracking, search and res. 0 (0 %) systems do forecast of sediment transports WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

7. Results obtained from the questionnaires (continued): Iberian-Biscay-Irish Region Status at the start of ECOOP: 5 systems do 3D ocean forecasts (IST, MetGal, Mercator, IEO, IMI) 4 (80%) systems run operationally 1 (20%) system run pre-operationally 1 (20%) system apply data-assimilation 4 (80%) systems do validation of products 0 (0%) system has ecosystem model 1 (20%) system do wave forecasting 3 (60% ) systems do oil spill tracking, search and res. 1 (20 %) system do forecast of sediment transports WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

8. Black sea Status at the start of ECOOP: 6 systems do 3D ocean forecasts (MHI, SOI, IOBAS, IGGAS, NMA, MBURHI) 0 (0%) systems run operationally 6 (100%) systems run pre-operationally 0 (0%) system apply data-assimilation 6 (100%) systems do validation of products (model output) 0 (0%) systems have ecosystem models 0 (0%) system do wave forecasting 0 (0%) systems do oil spill tracking, search and res. 0 (0 %) systems do forecast of sediment transports Results obtained from the questionnaires (continued): WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

9. Results obtained from the questionnaires (continued) Mediterranean sea Status at the start of ECOOP: 6 systems do 3D ocean forecasts (OCUC, HCMR, IASA, IAMC, POC, IOLR) 6 (100%) systems run operationally 0 (0%) systems apply data-assimilation 6 (100%) systems do validation of products (model output) 0 (0%) systems have ecosystem models 2 (33%) system do wave forecasting 2 (33%) systems do oil spill tracking, search and res. 0 (0 %) systems do forecast of sediment transports WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

10. Summary: 24 areas have model systems for forecasting of 3D ocean circulation and hydrography 16 (67%) systems run operationally 8 (33%) systems run pre-operationally 4 (17%) systems apply data-assimilation 21 (88%) systems do validation of products: 14 (58%) systems validate SST 2 (8%) systems validate SSS 5 (21%) systems validate sea level 1 (4%) system validate sea surface velocity 8 (33%) systems validate velocity profiles 4 (17%) systems have ecosystem models 3 (13%) ecosystems are in operational mode 1 (4%) ecosystems is in pre-operation mode 7 (29%) systems have surface wave forecasting 5 (21%) wave models are operational 2 (8%) wave models are pre-operational 4 (17%) model systems do ice forecasts 10 (42%) model systems do oil spill tracking and search and rescue 2 (8%) model systems do pre-operational forecasts of sediment transports Results obtained from the questionnaires (continued): WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards

11. Based on the results obtained from the questionnaires the following is suggested to improve models (common standards): All systems (North Sea, Baltic Sea, Iberia-Biscay-Irish region, Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea) should be/include: Operational and process resolving Downscaling (from Basin wide  Regional  Local scale) Data-assimilation should be applied at least at one level (e.g., regional) Validation against data At least one specific (relevant) feature. E.g., oil spill tracking, search and rescue, sea ice, ecosystem modeling, … WP4, T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards