1. Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 The use of scenarios in innovation processes. Two case studies Dr. Patrick A. van der Duin Delft University of Technology

2. Contents Introduction: background of the research research question research methodology The link between scenarios and innovation Case 1: KPN Research Case 2: PinkRoccade Cross-case analysis Overall conclusions The research presented in this paper is part of a research into the use of futures research in innovation processes at commercial organisations (see Qualitative futures research for innovation, Patrick A. van der Duin, Eburon Academic Publishers, 2006; www.eburon.nl).

3. Introduction Focus on commercial organisations, on innovation Part of larger research on the use of qualitative methods of futures research in innovation processes Research question: “How do commercial organisations use scenarios in innovation processes?” Research methodology: case-study method absence of theories of the relationship between scenarios and innovation interviews, desk research (internal and external documents), participant observation, groupdiscussion (feedback on findings)

4. The link between innovation and scenarios Lead time of innovation processes: depends on type of innovation (eg. automobiles, pharmaceutical, software) innovation still takes considerable time…. time for technological, societal and market changes Uncertain nature of innovation what will the future be? decisions in the present uncertainty of the innovation and the future (lead time and uncertainty are related as well)

5. Case 1: KPN Research Former R&D-lab of KPN, the Dutch PTT (incumbent operator) The ‘Innovation Chain’: a specific method to relate scenarios to innovation process: interactive, with large customers starts with market and organisational needs and ends with technology (ICT) Steps of the ‘Innovation Chain’ (IC): 1.current situation 2.future exploration 3.future vision 4.ICT-strategy 5.ICT-services

6. Case 1: The ‘Innovation Chain’ 2. Future exploratio n 3. Future vision 4. ICT- strategy Time to Innovate Input from Destination 2005 1. Currentsituation 5. ICT- products / services

7. Case 1: ‘Destination 2005’: corporate scenarios Budget: calculating, short term, pragmatic, rational, direct, economical, struggle for life, national Adventure: fun, joy, exploring, innovative, global, dynamic, colourful, flexible, no limits, uniqueness, original Comfort: functionality, control, security, core business, one-stop- shopping, simple, logic, outsourcing, continental Durable: harmony, political correctness, responsible, local and regional, integration, social and ethical, long term, awareness, community collective individual passive active

8. Case 1: KPN Research Case conclusions: The place of the corporate scenarios in the IC: second step of the IC, scenarios as inspiration (not assessment), scenarios supplemented by trends (?) The quality of the IC: extensive and professional, clients are satisfied, but not used for internal innovation processes and vision (!) The impact of the IC on innovation: Many new plans and ideas for innovation, but really innovations?

9. Case 2: PinkRoccade A Dutch IT-company specialized in IT-services and IT-infrastructure The ‘Foresight Project’: corporate scenarios for innovation: new business development make PinkRoccade more future-oriented business-to-business-scenarios

10. Case 2: The corporate scenarios of the ‘Foresight’-project’ Gnu: ‘hit and run’, individualisation, privatization, short time-to- market, ‘quick and dirty’, customization, employees have high education Beaver: local solidarity, customer intimacy, close cooperation between individuals, globalisation demands regional coordination, process innovation Elephant: ‘enterprise rules’, large-scale organisations, efficiency, focus on realizing low costs, fast time-to-market, few governmental resources Bear: protectionism, focus on maintaining market shares, Europe is united, less complexity, standardization, risk aversion, equality small forces stable dynamic big forces

11. Case 2: PinkRoccade Case conclusions: The place of the (corporate scenarios of the) ‘Foresight’-project in the innovation processes of PinkRoccade: first phase, no ‘integration-method’, link with other management methods (but no futures research methods) The quality of the ‘Foresight’-project: two objectives (internal and external), not much emphasis on customer’ perspective, problems with follow-up, different time horizons The impact of the ‘Foresight’-project on innovation: many business cases, the scenario-business-case-cycle, the ‘scenario-champion’

12. Cross-case analysis (1) Perspective 1: comparison between the scenario-methods: quite similar scenario-process, differences in outside-in perspective, difference in support from the top, both combine market and technology Perspective 2: integration of scenarios with innovation: KPN Research has a specific integration-method (the IC), PinkRoccade not (ad hoc integration) (compare roadmapping) Perspective 3: the place of the scenarios in the innovation process: earlier phases of the innovation process, scenarios to inspire innovators

13. Cross-case analysis (2) Perspective 4: the quality of the scenarios: depends on which function (and expectation) it has, amount of transparency of the scenario-building process (input, throughput, output) Perspective 5: the impact of scenarios on innovation: (also) depends on goal of the project, difficult to connect scenarios with innovation (long lead times…), are innovators and futures researchers more inclined to look at the future when business is going well…?

14. Overall conclusions 1. Different interactions between scenarios and innovation: difficult and diffuse…. 2.Scenarios as a source of inspiration: first phase of the innovation process, no ‘future-proofness’-test 3.Scenarios and the type of innovation: Link with radical innovations (uncertainty and multitude of aspects) 4.Scenarios and innovating are human activities: Not only focus on methods, role of innovator and future research (‘future process expert’ and future content expert) are crucial

15. It all comes down to.....