1. North American Experience with GIC David Boteler Canadian Space Weather Forecast Centre Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa Workshop on Geomagnetically Induced Currents, Edinburgh, 5-6 March 2014

2. Early Work March 1940 magnetic storm –First reported effects of GIC Albertson and co-workers (1970s) –GIC monitoring –Effects of GIC Canadian work – early 1980s –Hydro-Quebec, Ontario Hydro, Manitoba Hydro, BC Hydro, U.Manitoba, U. BC

3. March 1989 storm Hydro-Quebec blackout Widespread relay misoperation US transformers burnt out Problems in Europe –Lines tripped in Sweden –Transformers damaged in UK

4. March 1989 aftermath Field transformed from academic curiosity to real problem Industry workshops EPRI Sunburst monitoring project

5. Canadian Electrical Association study 1990s Geomagnetic Hazard Assessment NRCan, Canadian Utilities, U. Manitoba –Occurrence of geomagnetic activity –Development of Earth conductivity models –Calculation of Electric Fields –Modelling of GIC –Estimation of Peak GIC

6. Mid 1990s – mid 2000s The Quiet Years Kappenman maintaining interest in GIC HQ long-line E field measurements Modelling HQ GIC due to electrojet Adaptation of complex image method ESA SW Service Development project –Real-time GIC Simulator (NRCan + FMI + Hydro One)

7. Rekindled Interest Hurricane Katrina –High Impact Low Frequency (HILF) events “Natural EMP” – increased political awareness DoE, DHS concern in US (Shield Act) Federal Electricity Regulatory Commission (FERC) North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)

8. NERC Geomagnetic Disturbance Task Force Tasked by FERC to develop new guidelines Re-examining the whole issue of GIC risk –Occurrence of extreme storms (how extreme?) –Define characteristics of extreme storm –Calculate Electric Fields –Calculate GIC –Examine Impact on System Operations –Examine heating of transformers

9. Abilities and Expectations Expectations Abilities 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

10. Expectations (1) Define an extreme storm waveform –March 13, 1989, 100-year storm (1859?) Validation of Electric Field Calculations –Effectively validate the 1-D Earth models –How much influence from the coast effect? Tools for GIC Simulation –Open source software –GIC routines added to commercial software –Validation: Benchmark model (Horton et al, 2012) –Validation: Benchmark 2 model – in progress

11. Expectations (2) Define Transformer Response (Heating) –Physical tests (limited opportunities) –Development of thermal model –Dependence on details of transformer construction Define Transformer Response (VAR) –Model of transformer saturation –Calculate reactive power demand –Calculate harmonic generation –Dependence on transformer type Modelling of System Response –VAR support and voltage stability –Effects on relays (not receiving much attention)

12. Coming Regulations Hazard Assessment –Examine system response to defined extreme storm Mitigation –Show measures to mitigate risk if necessary –Blocking devices being pushed Operating Procedures –need real-time data or forecasts

13. Acknowledgements Luis Marti, Hydro One Randy Horton, Southern Power Co. Richard Becker, Bonneville Power Authority Rich Lordan, Electric Power Research Institute Steve Shelemy, Manitoba Hydro Sebastien Gullion, Hydro-Quebec Risto Pirjola, NRCan/FMI Larisa Trichtchenko, NRCan

14. Outstanding Issues Definition of an Extreme Magnetic Storm –Reliability of 100-year occurrence values –“typical” waveform? Electric Fields produced with a “Real” 3-D Earth conductivity structure Modelling GIC –Assume that method and software is okay –Need sufficient and accurate input data Spatial characteristics of disturbances 3-D Earth models System details (eg effect of shield wires)